Ha. Well that's funny. Did it have anything to do with the Orioles being on of the worst teams in baseball the year before? Generally attendance is reflective of team performance the previous year. I would guess the Orioles have a higher attendance this year than last, despite the fact that the team will likely win less games.

Yankees lost Mattingly after 1995. In 1996, attendance went up 550,000. It's because they made the playoffs in 1995.

Posted by burnsy483 on 3/26/2013 7:37:00 PM (view original):
Maybe its not 2 wins. Maybe its 5. Its probably based more on playoff performance and appearances. When Jeter retires, there isn't going to a drop of several hundred thousand people. Well...actually there might, based on team performance.

When Ripken retired, did you find yourself going to significantly less games? Or are you a true Orioles fan, and you go to watch the uniform, not the player? (assuming you live in/near Baltimore)

Couldn't drive at the time, so it really wasn't under my control...  But the Orioles hadn't been in the playoffs since 1997, so it's not like they dropped off the table all of a sudden, particularly in your "it's playoff appearances that really matter" model.

Posted by burnsy483 on 3/26/2013 7:31:00 PM (view original):
I think you found the 2 exceptions to the rule. And the Marlins. And any new ballpark that opens, that skews it too. For at least a few years, usually.

Don Mattingly was a star. Why did so few fans go to games?

As mentioned earlier by me, Mattingly is not Jeter.  

And Mattingly is my favorite player of all-time.

And, as I mentioned earlier, winning solves a lot of problems.     Saying the difference of 5 wins is significant is kind of silly.

However, the fans that go for players are pretty much the equivalent of fans that go for wins.    I won't say either group isn't "true" fans because everyone is a fan for a reason but teams have to have a something to draw in fans.    Shitting on Jeter and winning 75 games would produce a lot of empty seats.   Shitting on Jeter would produce empty seats.  Winning 75 games would produce empty seats.    But, if you produce the same result as last season without Jeter, attendance will go down.  I have no idea how much but it would.

I would argue that the vast majority of fans don't root for players, they root for teams. The recent Mets equivalent is Mike Piazza. Arguably the best position player in team history, and easily a fan favorite. He was not offered a contract after the 2005 season, which was a season where the Mets had their first winning record in 4 years, and showed some promise going into 2006. You can probably guess what happened to attendance in 2006.

I want to go back to my last scenario - if the 92 win Jeter-less Yankees made the playoffs, do we think they'd be less popular than the 90 win Jeter team that misses the playoffs?

Attendance is kinda sketchy to base any comparisons.  Both leagues now only report tickets sold and NOT true attendance, so even if a bunch of season ticket holders decide to not show up for Jeter-less games, it won't change the "official" attendance figures at all.

Hard to say, but so far since they signed the new contract they haven't missed the playoffs, so it's kind of a bullshit question.

Posted by burnsy483 on 3/26/2013 9:04:00 PM (view original):
I would argue that the vast majority of fans don't root for players, they root for teams. The recent Mets equivalent is Mike Piazza. Arguably the best position player in team history, and easily a fan favorite. He was not offered a contract after the 2005 season, which was a season where the Mets had their first winning record in 4 years, and showed some promise going into 2006. You can probably guess what happened to attendance in 2006.

I want to go back to my last scenario - if the 92 win Jeter-less Yankees made the playoffs, do we think they'd be less popular than the 90 win Jeter team that misses the playoffs?

Context.  And a lot of other factors.   I'd argue that a 90 win team, in today's game, is a contender all season.    Change your scenario to a 92 win Jeter-less playoff team to a 76 win team with Jeter that is out of contention in August and you have an argument.   That said, if Jeter announced his retirement in August, I think the 76 win team would outdraw the 92 win playoff team.   "Last chance to see a HOFer play" type of thing.

I didn't think about the "farewell tour" aspect.  I suppose that's fair.

My overall point is that wins and playoff appearances drive attendance much more on a consistent basis than having or losing star players do.  The Yankees would be much much MUCH better off from a business aspect if they made the playoffs without Jeter, then if they missed the playoffs with Jeter.  

I think making the playoffs is a game-changer from the financial aspect.   Additional games, additional merchandise.   And, quite honestly, the merchandise is probably the bigger money-maker.   There's a reason A-Roid got performance bonuses for HR milestones.    But you also need to look at Jeter merchandise.   Who buys a Nunez jersey?

It's not just the additional games - if the Yankees miss the playoffs, less fans will go to games the following year.  And it would be significant.

I don't know who buys a Nunez jersey.  I know a lot of people who bought a Cano, Sabathia, Tex, Granderson jersey/shirts, etc.  

On a side note, I hate those Yankee jersey t-shirts with names on the back.  The jerseys don't have names on the back.  Why does your t-shirt?

I don't know that "miss playoffs" = "less fans next season".   Too many factors.   Yanks:

07 Lost LDS  4.271m
08 Missed playoffs  4.298m
09 Won WS  3.719m
10 Lost LCS 3.765m

08 was the last season in old Yankee Stadium.   The season after they won the WS was half a million less than 07.   Of course, there was an economic downturn in that time period. 

BTW, my wife has a jersey with the name on the back.   Wanna guess who?   She became a Yankee fan by default.   Wanna guess her favorite player?

the Yanks have out drawn the average A.L. attendance by 50% in each year since 2001...and they will continue to