All Forums > SimLeague Baseball > MLB > Gold Glover Jeter, Best SS Evah!!!, robbed of MVP
3/29/2013 10:29 AM
Did the Rangers know that Beltre would suddenly become a better hitter, especially since "players don't get better in their mid-30s?  Is that why he got that much?  He's obviously in a much better lineup and in a hitters park.  If he stays in Seattle, or plays at Citi Field, he's obviously not making Wright "look like a little leaguer."
3/29/2013 11:06 AM
I don't know what the Rangers knew.   I know what happened.  Maybe we should deal with the facts and not the "what ifs"?

The facts are Beltre has outperformed Wright for the last three years.
The facts are that, history dictates per the stat nerds, that Wright if greatly overperforming based on BABIP.  It's not sustainable.
The facts are that the Mets negotiated a deal when they didn't have to.
3/29/2013 11:11 AM
Posted by MikeT23 on 3/29/2013 10:21:00 AM (view original):
LOL, yep.

http://www.fangraphs.com/comparison.aspx?playerid=3787&playerid2=&playerid3=&position=3b&page=7&type=full

Every "advanced metric" junkie knows what he'd doing is unsustainable.   Right?
His career BABIP is .341. In 2012 it was .347.

That's in line with what you would expect from one of the best hitters in baseball. I'd say 2011 was the fluke, not 2012.
3/29/2013 11:13 AM
You should get back to me in 3 years then, and see what Wright did.  Since the Rangers may have known that Beltre would blossom, despite not so good offensive numbers the years prior, maybe the Mets know that Wright will too.

I'm not sure you understand how BABIP works.

Several teams negotiate deals when they don't have to.  The Yankees tried with Cano.


3/29/2013 11:18 AM
Sure, I'll laugh at you in three years.

Wright's BABIP is far above league average.    That's not sustainable per the statnerds.   If I'm reading it wrong, please explain.

Sure they do.  Doesn't mean it's a good idea. 
3/29/2013 11:27 AM (edited)
Posted by MikeT23 on 3/29/2013 10:14:00 AM (view original):
Look at the last three years.  LAST THREE YEARS.  "Over the last three years, Beltre makes Wright look like a Little Leaguer."

I know you don't want to but that's what I'm saying.  Beltre has been the better hitter and the Mets let Wright bend them over.   They decided to negotiate against themselves.   Look how that worked out for the Rangers with A-Roid. 

Are you adjusting for ballpark? Because Beltre plays in arguably the best hitters park in baseball and Citi Field is one of the worst.

And anyway, why confine it to three years? Because that narrow window alone fits your argument? Wright, over his career as a whole, has been significantly better offensively than Beltre.

And again, it's beside the point. To argue that the Mets overpaid for Wright, you'd have to think that he couldn't get a better deal on the open market. Which is dumb. He absolutely could and would get a better deal from another team as a free agent. He's one of the top 10-15 position players in baseball and is better than every position player on the Yankees with the exception of Cano (and that's a relatively small gap).
3/29/2013 11:23 AM
You can laugh at me then, like I laughed at you for Jeters deal 3 years ago, and I'm laughing now.

I'll let you try and figure it out on your own - why do you think Jeter's BABIP is one of the highest in baseball history?

Sometimes it IS a good idea, for reasons explained earlier.
3/29/2013 11:26 AM
Posted by MikeT23 on 3/29/2013 11:18:00 AM (view original):
Sure, I'll laugh at you in three years.

Wright's BABIP is far above league average.    That's not sustainable per the statnerds.   If I'm reading it wrong, please explain.

Sure they do.  Doesn't mean it's a good idea. 
A high BABIP for a great hitter is sustainable. Why don't you take a look at Jeter's BABIP. Or Manny Ramirez's. Or Miguel Cabrera's. Or Edgar Martinez's. Or Larry Walker's.
3/29/2013 2:58 PM
Look at all the idiot teams extending their players to long term deals today when they don't have to.  League is run by morons, right?
3/31/2013 6:47 PM
Signing players into their late 30s is never a good idea.    Do you disagree?
4/1/2013 9:13 AM
It's a different argument.  I think it depends.  If you want a great player who is 30+, you'll have to make the deal.  It depends what the alternative is.  If the Mets don't sign Wright to that deal, are they using the funds they saved in other ways to make their team better than if they had Wright?  Answer is probably not.  If the Yankees don't extend Cano, what are they using that money for instead to make their team better?  They're probably better off extending Cano into his late 30s.
4/1/2013 10:19 AM
Pretty sure I disagree.  Teams know that the 7-8 year deal is a bad idea.   That the value won't be there at the end.   But teams set their own payroll standards.   I'd say the Mets gave Wright his deal, despite being under contract, because of Santana's deal.   Yanks gave Jeter his deal because of the deals given to Texiera, A-Rod, CC(and countless others before them).  Believe it or not, the players/agents still hold the hammer.   Wright went to the Mets and said "Let's talk extension."   The Mets caved because he's their most marketable player and they didn't want to risk losing him.  And his agent started with Santana's contract as his base.  That's why they extended him til he's  37 and paid too much.

And, to come full circle, regardless of what you believe, the Yanks couldn't say 1/8m or 3/24m to Jeter because the YANKEES market says that's Kyle Farnsworth money not starting position player money.
4/1/2013 10:32 AM
To believe that pile of bullshit you'd have to think that Wright wouldn't have gotten a better deal as a free agent.
4/1/2013 6:23 PM
I'm pretty sure that Wright got what he got because that's market value. Seems most believe it's a fair deal all the way around. It has nothing to do with Santana. They extended him because they feel he's part of the solution when the team is ready to compete in a couple years. Reyes wasn't. Dickey wasn't.

If the Yankees do business the way you describe, it may explain why they're in the situation they're in. While everyone else is basing contracts on what the open market dictates, the Yankees use a different market.
4/1/2013 7:18 PM
Wright is not a 20m a year player.   He just isn't.   He's also not a guy you want when he's 37.
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