All Forums > SimLeague Baseball > MLB > Ripping off ESPN -> Trout vs Cabrera MVP
10/3/2012 2:23 PM
Posted by burnsy483 on 10/3/2012 2:19:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 10/3/2012 2:08:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 10/3/2012 2:02:00 PM (view original):
I'm not sure how reliable defensive stats are from the 70's. But that's a good point, WAR isn't a be all to end all stat.

But it is a decent yardstick, especially as defensive metrics improve. And it shows that there is a significant difference in value between Trout and Cabrera this year.
The significant difference comes from CF vs 3B.   Every year.    Trout looks like a slightly above average CF and, shockingly, Cabrera was only a slightly below average 3B.

Beyond that, this could be an exceptionally weak CF class this year with a strong 3B class.   Replacement player value is skewed like that.   Thus WAR is skewed.
This thread has been very entertaining to read, thanks all.

Mike you've mentioned a few times that Trout looks like a slightly above average CF...what I'm looking at says he's near GG quality.  It also says that Cabrera's one of the worst defensive 3B in baseball.
I see neither of those things.    I know the perception of Cabrera at 3B, I was happy to do my small part in creating it, but he's not horrible.

Nothing in Trout's stats scream "GG CF!!!!"
10/3/2012 2:29 PM
If not Trout for AL GG CF, then who?
10/3/2012 2:29 PM
What are you looking at?  And I'm not trying to be argumentative when I say that, I'm just curious.

www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx

www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx


10/3/2012 2:34 PM
10/3/2012 2:44 PM
Posted by tecwrg on 10/3/2012 2:29:00 PM (view original):
If not Trout for AL GG CF, then who?
Without looking, Adam Jones and BJ Upton always look pretty good.   I'm sure they have stronger arms(or, at least, more assists).   Both get to balls pretty well. 
10/3/2012 2:44 PM
Posted by tecwrg on 10/3/2012 2:29:00 PM (view original):
If not Trout for AL GG CF, then who?
ADAM JONES!!!
10/3/2012 2:50 PM
****, nevermind.  I've agreed with jtpops way too many times in this thread.  I'm obviously clueless.
10/3/2012 2:52 PM
But, along those lines, jtpops mentioned earlier about a lot of these "new school" stats "proving" a guy is good after we already know it.    Too often it seems that they are manipulated to say "See?  Told you he was good!!!" 

Again, they have value but they aren't the end of discussion type of thing.  ESPECIALLY the defensive ones. 
10/3/2012 3:09 PM
Posted by MikeT23 on 10/3/2012 2:44:00 PM (view original):
Posted by tecwrg on 10/3/2012 2:29:00 PM (view original):
If not Trout for AL GG CF, then who?
Without looking, Adam Jones and BJ Upton always look pretty good.   I'm sure they have stronger arms(or, at least, more assists).   Both get to balls pretty well. 
Would knowing that Adam Jones has a -1.3 dWAR and BJ Upton has a -0.2 dWAR change your mind?
10/3/2012 3:12 PM
Would you believe "No"?

10/3/2012 3:22 PM
Posted by MikeT23 on 10/3/2012 2:52:00 PM (view original):
But, along those lines, jtpops mentioned earlier about a lot of these "new school" stats "proving" a guy is good after we already know it.    Too often it seems that they are manipulated to say "See?  Told you he was good!!!" 

Again, they have value but they aren't the end of discussion type of thing.  ESPECIALLY the defensive ones. 
I don't entirely believe in the defensive numbers, since they're so new...but I feel they give a good general sense on how players do.  Trout is good, Cabrera is bad, but I wouldn't assume either is best or worst based on these numbers.
10/3/2012 3:46 PM (edited)
Posted by MikeT23 on 10/3/2012 2:08:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 10/3/2012 2:02:00 PM (view original):
I'm not sure how reliable defensive stats are from the 70's. But that's a good point, WAR isn't a be all to end all stat.

But it is a decent yardstick, especially as defensive metrics improve. And it shows that there is a significant difference in value between Trout and Cabrera this year.
The significant difference comes from CF vs 3B.   Every year.    Trout looks like a slightly above average CF and, shockingly, Cabrera was only a slightly below average 3B.

Beyond that, this could be an exceptionally weak CF class this year with a strong 3B class.   Replacement player value is skewed like that.   Thus WAR is skewed.
Replacement level is not calculated based on the different class of players each year. Replacement is set to the level of a AAA or waiver wire player.

EDIT: The positional adjustments for WAR are exactly the same for 3B and CF (+2.5) so the significant difference does not come from CF vs 3B.
10/3/2012 3:41 PM
And all WW or AAA players are created equal?
10/3/2012 3:43 PM
Taking a look at Adam Jones vs. Mike Trout for defensive stats:

Jones:

Innings in CF: 1450
Putouts: 438
Assists:  7
Errors:  8
Double Plays: 0
Fld Pct:  .982
RF/9: 2.76
Defensive Runs Saved aboce average per 1200 innings: -13
dWAR: -1.3

Trout:

Innings in CF: 877.2
Putouts: 261
Assists:  2
Errors:  2
Double Plays: 1
Fld Pct:  .992
RF/9: 2.70
Defensive Runs Saved aboce average per 1200 innings: 31
dWAR: 2.1  (includes additional 340 innings played in LF/RF)

This raises more questions than it answers.

Jones has a slightly higher putout rate in CF than does Trout.  He has more assists than Trout.  He has a higher range factor that Trout.  Trout has fewer errors, as evidenced by his better fielding percentage.  Overall, just looking at those raw numbers, one would not necessarily conclude that Trout is the better CF (other than the fewer errors).  Jones seems to have more range, catches more balls, and has a better arm than Trout, at least based on these numbers.

Yet, the "Defensive runs saved" and dWAR stats seem to indicate that Jones is a defensive liability in CF, while Trout kicks *** in CF.

So now I question how meaningful dWAR really is.  Because thse numbers don't really pass the smell test.
10/3/2012 3:45 PM
Posted by MikeT23 on 10/3/2012 3:41:00 PM (view original):
And all WW or AAA players are created equal?
It doesn't matter if they are or aren't. It's just a benchmark used for the calculation.
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