Ripping off ESPN -> Trout vs Cabrera MVP Topic

5-10 years is definitely a small sample size. By definition, the same team accumulates roughly half the AB/IP each year in a park. The smaller the sample size, the more the park factor is a function of the caliber of players on the home team, and the less reliable the calculated park factor becomes.

A place like Wrigley or Fenway has a much more reliable park factor than newer parks, simply because the home team has presumably encompassed all sorts of squads over the years: teams with great pitching staffs, horrible pitching, massive power, no power etc.Clearly however, there's only so much data for newer parks, so the park factor is what it is.

I am surprised that Comerica has generally been more favorable for HR than LA over the past 10 years, but wonder how much of that is influenced by LA/DET pitching staffs + lineups during that timeframe.
10/3/2012 10:29 PM
Unless I'm misreading it, for ESPN's park factors, the home team's AB/IP are the only thing that matter, because they are just comparing the rates at home vs. on the road: Park Factor compares the rate of stats at home vs. the rate of stats on the road.
10/3/2012 10:39 PM
That's a good way to do it, and now I'm even more surprised at that result. I assumed they were looking at all offensive stats in the park (by home/away team) on a yearly basis to calculate it.
10/3/2012 10:41 PM
That actually kind of seems like a dumb way to do it in the sense that if a team is ill-constructed for their own ballpark, or happens to play better on the road, then their park will automatically be rated as as "pitchers" park.
10/3/2012 10:46 PM
It's the only way to have any kind of control in a smaller sample.  Otherwise the issues that ink mentioned come in, and in a single season the quality of the team playing in the park becomes a driving factor.  ie - if you have a great hitting, poor pitching team, the park is going to show up as a hitter's park.
10/3/2012 11:01 PM
Park factors for runs compare the rates of runs scored and allowed at home versus runs scored and allowed on the road. It's not just the home team's numbers. And there's nothing that suggests the other park factors are done otherwise.

The information given from 2001 on is plenty reliable, unless you're looking for an ultimate catch-all number for the home run effect. But a proper multi-year park factor, using a weighted average, can deliver the information necessary for this comparison, and since 2001, it is clear that Angel Stadium hurts home runs more.
10/3/2012 11:06 PM
Each park factor on ESPN, I think, is based on a single season. But a simple glance would tell us that multi-year weighted averages would still show Angel Stadium to be worse for home runs.
10/3/2012 11:08 PM
Posted by 1899_spiders on 10/3/2012 11:06:00 PM (view original):
Park factors for runs compare the rates of runs scored and allowed at home versus runs scored and allowed on the road. It's not just the home team's numbers. And there's nothing that suggests the other park factors are done otherwise.

The information given from 2001 on is plenty reliable, unless you're looking for an ultimate catch-all number for the home run effect. But a proper multi-year park factor, using a weighted average, can deliver the information necessary for this comparison, and since 2001, it is clear that Angel Stadium hurts home runs more.
It's the home team's numbers in the sense that the park factor for Citizens' Bank Park only looks at what the Phillies do home vs. away - it doesn't factor in anyone else's numbers directly beyond the fact they are the ones the Phillies score against and give up runs to.
10/3/2012 11:13 PM
Posted by loudawg10 on 10/3/2012 9:41:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 10/3/2012 4:58:00 PM (view original):
Posted by loudawg10 on 10/3/2012 4:58:00 PM (view original):
FUN WITH WAR!!

Per B-R (for position players only):
Cabrera's WAR (O+D) is 6.9.  His team total WAR is 14.5.  Meaning Cabrera's WAR is 47.6% of his team's total level.
Trout's WAR (O+D) is 10.7.  His team total WAR is 38.2.  Trout's WAR is 28% of his team's total.

Who is more valuable to their team?
Trout had better teammates. Makes sense since the Angels won more games and were a better team. Should Trout be punished for this fact?
actually in terms of value to his team...yes.   in terms of performance no.

lets try an analogy.
In one pot you have $382; in another you have $145.  If you take $107 away from Jar 1, you still have $275.  If you take $69 dollars away from jar 2, you have only $76. 

The $107 is a higher number, but the $69 is more important to the overall contents of its jar.
But the pots start at zero. If you have the choice to add $107 or $69, nobody in their right mind is choosing $69 because $107 is more valuable. 
10/4/2012 11:24 AM
Posted by Jtpsops on 10/3/2012 8:12:00 PM (view original):
I see people are still having trouble differentiating between value and worth.

$1000 is worth more than $100. But I guarantee you $100 is more valuable to me than $1000 is to Bill Gates.
You own two cars. A brand new mint condition Ferrari and a brand new mint condition Nissan Sentra. 

It doesn't matter if you are Bill Gates or homeless, the Ferrari is always more valuable. 

Worth and value are THE SAME ******* THING.
10/4/2012 11:29 AM
See my above explanation. Someone steals your Sentra and it's not insured. You're likely screwed. Gates crashes his Ferrari, he buys another Ferrari.

Gates car was worth more but yours was more valuable to you than his was to him. Try to keep up.
10/4/2012 11:33 AM
This reached laughable yesterday.

BL's love of Trout cannot be swayed.   He finds it impossible to believe that anyone could consider Cabrera to be more valuable this season.  
10/4/2012 11:37 AM
Posted by Jtpsops on 10/4/2012 11:33:00 AM (view original):
See my above explanation. Someone steals your Sentra and it's not insured. You're likely screwed. Gates crashes his Ferrari, he buys another Ferrari.

Gates car was worth more but yours was more valuable to you than his was to him. Try to keep up.
Wow. If someone steals your sentra and it isn't insured, the value is $0.

No one is stealing anything in this massively convoluted analogy.

Ballplayer A is valued at X
Ballplayer B is valued at X+4

There is no team, situation, Bill Gates/Homeless analogy, where A is more valuable than B.
10/4/2012 11:39 AM
I really don't think you understand the meaning of "valuable".   Or maybe the context of it.

If my Nissan is stolen, I may not have the funds to find another way to get to work.   That Nissan is EXTREMELY valuable to me because it's what I use to get to work where I make my living.

If Bill Gates' Ferrari is stolen, he just drives his Benz to work.   Or has his chauffeur take him there.   Or decides to take a month long vacation in Bermuda to get over it.

Without question, my Nissan is infinitely more valuable to me than that Ferrari is to Bill Gates.

Get it?
10/4/2012 11:50 AM
Now, to put that into the context of this discussion, the MVP is given to the Most VALUABLE Player not the player with the best stats.   Maybe they're the same guy, maybe they aren't.
10/4/2012 11:52 AM
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Ripping off ESPN -> Trout vs Cabrera MVP Topic

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