All Forums > SimLeague Baseball > MLB > Ripping off ESPN -> Trout vs Cabrera MVP
10/4/2012 4:50 PM
Posted by burnsy483 on 10/4/2012 4:48:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 10/4/2012 4:45:00 PM (view original):
Posted by burnsy483 on 10/4/2012 4:42:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 10/4/2012 4:40:00 PM (view original):
Murray's 1990 WAR looks way off by comparison.  Is it because he didn't steal bases?

Does WAR love them some SB more than anything?
WAR actually doesn't love SB that much, I don't think.  It probably has to do with his position - the replacement level player at 1B is probably a lot better offensively than he is in CF.  See Dykstra.
This is what I've been getting at for the last 10 pages.

You can't even compare players at different positions.   An "up" year for 1B skews 1B for that season.   A "down" year for CF does the same.    If you have 3-4 great 2B in any given season, those 2B are "worth" less. 
I think this is true.  And I don't know if it's a bad thing.

Just a reminder - we determined that the positions of 3B and CF this year have the same "position bonus."
It's not. Offensive league average is established for all of the players (regardless of position) each year, then replacement is calculated off of that, then it is adjusted for position.
10/4/2012 4:52 PM
Posted by MikeT23 on 10/4/2012 4:49:00 PM (view original):
Sorry, 2009.

WAR Position Players  s c a p y
1. Pujols (STL) 9.4
2. Zobrist (TBR) 8.3
3. Utley (PHI) 8.0
4. Mauer (MIN) 7.6
5. Figgins (LAA) 7.5
6. Zimmerman (WSN) 7.1
  Ramirez (FLA) 7.1
8. Longoria (TBR) 6.7
9. Gonzalez (SDP) 6.6
10. Jeter (NYY) 6.4


This invalidates WAR altogether.   Figgins?   Chone ******* Figgins?  That's stupid.
Figgins hit .298/.395/.393 that year with 54 stolen bases and great defense at 3B.


10/4/2012 4:52 PM
Posted by MikeT23 on 10/4/2012 4:49:00 PM (view original):
Sorry, 2009.

WAR Position Players  s c a p y
1. Pujols (STL) 9.4
2. Zobrist (TBR) 8.3
3. Utley (PHI) 8.0
4. Mauer (MIN) 7.6
5. Figgins (LAA) 7.5
6. Zimmerman (WSN) 7.1
  Ramirez (FLA) 7.1
8. Longoria (TBR) 6.7
9. Gonzalez (SDP) 6.6
10. Jeter (NYY) 6.4


This invalidates WAR altogether.   Figgins?   Chone ******* Figgins?  That's stupid.
What I'm looking at says 9th.  And it's largely based on defense.  I would ignore it, mostly.
10/4/2012 4:53 PM
FWIW, my BPI number has...

Cabrera .868
Trout .852

BPI Number takes into account H, TB, BB, HBP, SB, CS, and K divided by PA

10/4/2012 4:58 PM
Posted by bad_luck on 10/4/2012 4:50:00 PM (view original):
Posted by burnsy483 on 10/4/2012 4:48:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 10/4/2012 4:45:00 PM (view original):
Posted by burnsy483 on 10/4/2012 4:42:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 10/4/2012 4:40:00 PM (view original):
Murray's 1990 WAR looks way off by comparison.  Is it because he didn't steal bases?

Does WAR love them some SB more than anything?
WAR actually doesn't love SB that much, I don't think.  It probably has to do with his position - the replacement level player at 1B is probably a lot better offensively than he is in CF.  See Dykstra.
This is what I've been getting at for the last 10 pages.

You can't even compare players at different positions.   An "up" year for 1B skews 1B for that season.   A "down" year for CF does the same.    If you have 3-4 great 2B in any given season, those 2B are "worth" less. 
I think this is true.  And I don't know if it's a bad thing.

Just a reminder - we determined that the positions of 3B and CF this year have the same "position bonus."
It's not. Offensive league average is established for all of the players (regardless of position) each year, then replacement is calculated off of that, then it is adjusted for position.
I'm confused how what youre saying is different from I'm saying.  I'm pretty sure we're agreeing.
10/4/2012 5:01 PM
I thought you were saying Mike was right when he said that an up year for 1b skews 1b for that season etc. It doesn't. The positional adjustment is the same.
10/4/2012 5:05 PM
If every 1B averages .300/.380/.550  and every SS averages .250/.300/.350, you're saying that positional adjustment doesn't matter? I'm not sure I'm following.  You did say it's adjusted for each position.
10/4/2012 5:06 PM

Yeah, you're gonna need to explain "adjusted for position" if you're going to insist position doesn't matter.

10/4/2012 5:15 PM (edited)
Posted by burnsy483 on 10/4/2012 5:06:00 PM (view original):
If every 1B averages .300/.380/.550  and every SS averages .250/.300/.350, you're saying that positional adjustment doesn't matter? I'm not sure I'm following.  You did say it's adjusted for each position.
They calculate average with all 1b and SS together (along with 3b, CF, C, 2b etc.). Replacement is calculated as X runs below average. A positional adjustment is added based on 162 games (2.5 for both 3b and CF). An up year at any position increases the average for all positions. So if there were 30 Cabrera-like 3B this year, both Trout's and Cabrera's offensive replacement levels would be higher (they'd have lower WAR).


Edit
From Fangraphs:

Since the offensive and defensive inputs into WAR don’t account for position played in any way, adding together wRAA and UZR without any sort of adjustment will severely underrate players at difficult defensive positions (think short stop, center field, catcher). It’s not that difficult to be a +5 defender at a position like first base, but it takes considerable talent to be a +5 defensive center fielder.

Here are the full FanGraphs positional adjustments used in WAR:

Catcher: +12.5 runs (all are per 162 defensive games)
First Base: -12.5 runs
Second Base: +2.5 runs
Third Base: +2.5 runs
Shortstop: +7.5 runs
Left Field: -7.5 runs
Center Field: +2.5 runs
Right Field: -7.5 runs
Designated Hitter: -17.5 runs

As noted above, these values are calculated on a per 162 defensive game basis, and players receive weighted credit for each position that they play.

10/4/2012 5:17 PM
For those looking for context dependent stats ie "hey man, what if all of Trout's home runs came in the 8th inning of a blow out and all of Cabrera's came with the game tied in the bottom of the 9th?"

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/trout-versus-cabrera-offense-only-context-included/
10/4/2012 5:23 PM
GIDP.  Otherwise known as "rally killers".  Never even thought about that.

Cabrera led the AL with 28.  Trout had only 7.

Another stat for Mike to ignore.
10/4/2012 5:34 PM
BL - can these numbers change from year to year? 


Catcher: +12.5 runs (all are per 162 defensive games)
First Base: -12.5 runs
Second Base: +2.5 runs
Third Base: +2.5 runs
Shortstop: +7.5 runs
Left Field: -7.5 runs
Center Field: +2.5 runs
Right Field: -7.5 runs
Designated Hitter: -17.5 runs
10/4/2012 5:40 PM
No, I'm pretty sure that adjustment is constant.
10/4/2012 5:42 PM
Posted by burnsy483 on 10/4/2012 4:23:00 PM (view original):
Posted by dahsdebater on 10/4/2012 4:21:00 PM (view original):
bad_luck, you may have an argument, but since you insist on being a dismissive ******* nobody's ever going to agree with you.  Period.  It also doesn't help that you're an idiot.
I actually agree with him that Trout should win the MVP.  But he's so dismissive of any other thought.

I asked him what the point of him making this thread was.  He still hasn't answered. 
It was an attempt to show how superior he is to anyone who thinks Cabrera should be the MVP.  The obvious flaw with this plan is that he's wrong.  The reality is that they're much closer than he wants to accept, literally everyone else on here realizes it, the voters certainly realize it, and more likely than not Cabrera will get the majority of the first place votes.  He may not win because some of the people who overrepresent the value of WAR (and I talk about WAR alllllll the time, but I still recognize that it has significant flaws) will put Cano 2nd, and virtually nobody will put Trout lower than 2nd.

I don't think OPS+ works perfectly either.  I do believe that Cabrera would lose a chunk of OPS if he played in Anaheim.  OTOH, I don't think Trout would gain all that much playing in Detroit.  I think Cabrera's numbers would still be as good if not better than Trout's if they switched stadiums, and Cabrera's OPS+ would be significantly better.  Some may disagree with that, but I'm suspicious that a lot of people really won't all that strongly, and if you don't then you have to recognize that Cabrera realistically had the better season with the bat, and not by quite as narrow a margin and some people are suggesting.

The final consideration to be made is that Cabrera is a MUCH better situational hitter than Trout.  No comparison.  That doesn't necessarily show up in OPS, WAR, or any other common sabermetric stats.  But it sure as hell shows up in his RBI totals.  Obviously Trout's not going to drive in as many runs hitting leadoff, but Cabrera hit .356 with RISP, while his SLG dropped off a bit.  Trout's average drops when runners get on base.  You can't quantify that in a statistic.  Plenty of people - myself included in many cases - would argue that the sample size is small, and that a big part of this kind of apparent statistical anomaly is luck.  I do happen to think that Cabrera legitimately focuses on putting the ball in play and reduces his K and HR rates in favor of obtaining hits and driving in runs when that's sufficient to manufacture runs for his team.  That trend has been sustained throughout his career.  But even if you DO think it's luck, it's still true for this year.  We don't award the MVP based on how we think the guy would perform next year statistically if he maintains the same talent level.  We award it based on what they did THIS year.  And this year Cabrera's approach worked better with runners on base, particularly in scoring position.  That increases his value, even if it doesn't show up in his WAR or his OPS.
10/4/2012 5:45 PM
Posted by tecwrg on 10/4/2012 5:23:00 PM (view original):
GIDP.  Otherwise known as "rally killers".  Never even thought about that.

Cabrera led the AL with 28.  Trout had only 7.

Another stat for Mike to ignore.
Congrats, you found another stat to prove Trout is faster than Cabrera. I don't think anyone is disputing that.
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