All Forums > SimLeague Baseball > MLB > Ripping off ESPN -> Trout vs Cabrera MVP
10/4/2012 5:46 PM
Quote post by dahsdebater on 10/4/2012 5:42:00 PM:

The final consideration to be made is that Cabrera is a MUCH better situational hitter than Trout.  No comparison.  That doesn't necessarily show up in OPS, WAR, or any other common sabermetric stats.  But it sure as hell shows up in his RBI totals.  Obviously Trout's not going to drive in as many runs hitting leadoff, but Cabrera hit .356 with RISP, while his SLG dropped off a bit.  Trout's average drops when runners get on base.  You can't quantify that in a statistic. 




http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/trout-versus-cabrera-offense-only-context-included/

Unlike with context-neutral statistics like wRC+, RE24 takes the number of outs and number of baserunners into account. It does not assume that all home runs are equal, nor does it treat a strikeout with a man on third base and one out as just another out. The rewards for performing with men on base are higher, and the blame for failing in those same situations is steeper as well. This is a metric that essentially quantifies the total offensive value of a player based on the situations that he actually faced. This is not a theoretical metric. If you hit a three run home run, you get more credit than if you hit a solo home run. If you are consistently getting hits with two outs to drive in runs, you get more credit than if those hits come with no outs and the bases empty. And, of course, it’s only an offensive metric, so there’s no defensive component, no position adjustments, and no replacement level. This is just straight up offense, adjusted for the context of the situations that they faced.
10/4/2012 5:49 PM
In response to dahs (I don't want to quote that whole post):

I just read an article about an interview with Jim Leyland about how he talked to Cabrera his first few years in Detroit about focusing and getting locked in EVERY AB. Not taking any ABs off mentally, not just going up and relying on raw talent, but to stay focused on each AB, the game situation, etc. It talked about how Cabrera seems to have gotten into a much better place mentally the last few seasons and it's showed in his stats. Leyland compared Cabrera to Bonds in that if they play every AB for a full season, the damage they can do is ridiculous.

As good as Trout was this season, I don't think he struck fear in near as many pitchers as Cabrera did.
10/4/2012 5:50 PM
Posted by Jtpsops on 10/4/2012 5:49:00 PM (view original):
In response to dahs (I don't want to quote that whole post):

I just read an article about an interview with Jim Leyland about how he talked to Cabrera his first few years in Detroit about focusing and getting locked in EVERY AB. Not taking any ABs off mentally, not just going up and relying on raw talent, but to stay focused on each AB, the game situation, etc. It talked about how Cabrera seems to have gotten into a much better place mentally the last few seasons and it's showed in his stats. Leyland compared Cabrera to Bonds in that if they play every AB for a full season, the damage they can do is ridiculous.

As good as Trout was this season, I don't think he struck fear in near as many pitchers as Cabrera did.
Your post makes me smile. I'm glad you agree with Mike and not with me.
10/4/2012 5:51 PM
Posted by burnsy483 on 10/4/2012 5:34:00 PM (view original):
BL - can these numbers change from year to year? 


Catcher: +12.5 runs (all are per 162 defensive games)
First Base: -12.5 runs
Second Base: +2.5 runs
Third Base: +2.5 runs
Shortstop: +7.5 runs
Left Field: -7.5 runs
Center Field: +2.5 runs
Right Field: -7.5 runs
Designated Hitter: -17.5 runs
If if these were the numbers in 1990, then Dykstra has quite an advantage over Murray before stats were even considered.
10/4/2012 5:54 PM
One thing I also want to throw out there (and this is purely my opinion) is that I think it's easier for a good hitter to rack up stats in the leadoff spot. That's not in any way to diminish Trout or what he did - he's a great player. But no pitcher wants to walk the leadoff guy, and most will groove a pitch or two to get ahead in the count, hoping that the leadoff guy is going to watch a couple pitches. Which means at least one AB per game, the leadoff guy is going to get some VERY good stuff to hit.

Case and point, Brady Anderson. People talk about 'roids, and that's fine, but I think him batting leadoff was a huge factor in his offensive numbers in '96. He hit a record 12 leadoff HRs that season. Why? Because he had pop and pitchers often tried to groove pitches by him to start the game. Coincidentally he never came near that HR total again. (And I don't buy that 'roids provide a one-season stat spike, unless a guy just hops on for one year and hops off).
10/4/2012 5:55 PM
Clearly it's not worth arguing with a guy who has read every article about how his guy is better, but doesn't even recognize the multitude of opinion articles out there that suggest that the other guy was better.
10/4/2012 5:57 PM
Posted by burnsy483 on 10/4/2012 5:51:00 PM (view original):
Posted by burnsy483 on 10/4/2012 5:34:00 PM (view original):
BL - can these numbers change from year to year? 


Catcher: +12.5 runs (all are per 162 defensive games)
First Base: -12.5 runs
Second Base: +2.5 runs
Third Base: +2.5 runs
Shortstop: +7.5 runs
Left Field: -7.5 runs
Center Field: +2.5 runs
Right Field: -7.5 runs
Designated Hitter: -17.5 runs
If if these were the numbers in 1990, then Dykstra has quite an advantage over Murray before stats were even considered.
Yep, about 1.5 WAR just from the positional advantage.
10/5/2012 7:03 AM
Yeah, WAR is crap.
10/5/2012 7:47 AM

Or a guy that can play CF is more valuable than a 1B before factoring in actual  baserunning, defense, hitting performance.  That's all it's saying.  Crap is outright dismissing a stat because of what it doesn't do or because of its perceived flaws but then embracing other arguments or stats that are even more flawed.
 

10/5/2012 8:00 AM
Pretty sure you don't get to determine "flawed" any more than badluck gets to determine "valuable".

A poor CF is not "more valuable" than an above average RF or 1B.   We've already found that dWAR doesn't pass the smell test.   What else do we need to know?
10/5/2012 8:03 AM
This is a long, long thread, and I read over half of it, anyway.

I didn't see anyone mention one of the things that really makes me lean towards Cabrera, despite the obvious reasons to vote for Trout.  This year, the guy volunteered to change positions in order to bring another masher into the team, and in my opinion really worked hard to play decent defense at the position (he was a better 3B now than he was as a younger man, despite not playing there for over 3 years).  Of course, Trout didn't have that option, but I feel that in addition to his massive offense, Cabrera's leadership and flexibility were extremely valuable to his team, and give him an edge.

Another thing to consider, for what it's worth, is that all season pitchers plan around facing Cabrera.  Trout was an unknown quantity on a team with Albert Pujols.  Despite his slow start, I'm sure that for around half a season pitchers were thinking a lot more about facing Pujols than they were Trout.

I usually go with the stats, but I'm willing to go with a "feeling" in certain circumstances.  I "feel" that Cabrera is the MVP.

10/5/2012 8:20 AM
I mentioned the Pujols/Trout thing a few pages back.    Despite his year, Trout is still 2nd banana in Anaheim.
10/5/2012 8:50 AM
At the end of the day, and this is what the WAR guys don't get, it's what you consider "valuable".    People have tried several analogies to make them understand "value" but it hasn't sunk in.    Value cannot be quantified with one little formula/stat. 

The point being made about MC moving to 3B, where you know he wasn't comfortable, to make room for Fielder is completely overlooked.   He could have thrown a Hanley-fit and forced his way out of town.   Or Detroit could have relented, left Brandon Inge on 3B while working Fielder/Cabrera at 1B/DH and forced Delmon Young back into the OF picture.  The fact that he's penalized by WAR for being a below average 3B is ridiculous.   He made the team better by doing it.

10/5/2012 9:20 AM
Posted by MikeT23 on 10/5/2012 8:50:00 AM (view original):
At the end of the day, and this is what the WAR guys don't get, it's what you consider "valuable".    People have tried several analogies to make them understand "value" but it hasn't sunk in.    Value cannot be quantified with one little formula/stat. 

The point being made about MC moving to 3B, where you know he wasn't comfortable, to make room for Fielder is completely overlooked.   He could have thrown a Hanley-fit and forced his way out of town.   Or Detroit could have relented, left Brandon Inge on 3B while working Fielder/Cabrera at 1B/DH and forced Delmon Young back into the OF picture.  The fact that he's penalized by WAR for being a below average 3B is ridiculous.   He made the team better by doing it.

If he stayed at 1B, WAR would penalize him further.  Being a poor 3B is better than being a below average-to-average 1B, according to WAR.  

Edit: I think.  Maybe I shouldn't have said that, I don't know if that's always true.  Problem with WAR...very few people know how it works very well.
10/5/2012 9:29 AM
It's a good point, though.  However, I look at MVP in a vaccum, as "most valuable player to any team."  For me, it's Trout.
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