He possibly overplayed his hand. He, and his people, thought ARod might negotiate something less and avoid the appeals circus. Of course, he didn't factor in how delusional ARod, and his people, are. I assume MLB thought ARod would take a 200 game suspension and ARod's camp thought "That's a career-ended. We'll take our chances in arb." After all, I don't think anyone will be surprised, or think less of ARod, when the evidence is there for all to see.