All Forums > SimLeague Baseball > MLB > Wins and Losses
12/4/2012 5:52 PM
Posted by bad_luck on 12/4/2012 5:26:00 PM (view original):
Posted by tecwrg on 12/4/2012 5:20:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 12/4/2012 4:49:00 PM (view original):
Posted by burnsy483 on 12/4/2012 4:47:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 12/4/2012 4:41:00 PM (view original):
Posted by burnsy483 on 12/4/2012 4:36:00 PM (view original):
If the 12-7 pitcher had a 3.90 ERA and the guy who went 11-12 had a 3.85 ERA....who was better?
I don't know. We would need more info and their W/L record isn't telling us anything.
OK.  They each had 200 IP.  They each allowed 190 hits, walked 40, struck out 160, each allowed 25 homers.
The 11-12 guy then.

Given the same number innings and base runners, he allowed fewer runs to score.
How do you know he allowed fewer runs to score?  He may have allowed fewer EARNED runs to score, but how would you know that he allowed fewer TOTAL runs to score?  Maybe the 11-12 guy had a ****** defense behind him.  More base runners, and he gave up more hits with RISP which resulted in unearned runs.  

Maybe a number of the 25 HRs allowed by the 11-12 guy came in late inning high-leverage situations where he blew the game.  Maybe a number of the 25 HRs allowed by the 12-7 guy came in low-leverage situations when he had a large lead and was pitching to contact.

You can't look at selected numbers on a spreadsheet and make definitive conclusions without additional context.  W/L provides at least a little bit of additional context.  To ignore that as COMPLETELY IRRELEVANT is borderline retarded.
The W/L record, though, gives you none of that additional information.
It tells you that the 12-7 guy's team won 63% of the time in which he was the pitcher of record, while the 11-12 guy's team won only 48% of the time in which he was the pitcher of record.

Sorry to bring teams winning games into the discussion.  I know that offends you.
12/4/2012 5:56 PM
But it doesn't tell you which pitcher was actually better.

12/4/2012 6:01 PM (edited)
In my example the 12-7 guy was 2012 Derek Holland and the 11-12 guy was 2012 Jake Peavy. Who had a better season? 

The W/L records are useless.
12/4/2012 6:10 PM
Posted by inkdskn on 12/4/2012 5:36:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 12/4/2012 5:20:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 12/4/2012 5:12:00 PM (view original):
Posted by burnsy483 on 12/4/2012 5:09:00 PM (view original):
Nobody has argued that you don't need more than win-loss record.  You also need more info than ERA.  Or ERA+, or whatever.  

I wanted Felix to win the Cy Young in 2010, as he was the best pitcher.  But people shouldn't state opinions in absolutes.  I gave an example above that I'm quite sure is very possible.  I don't take a ton of stock in w-l record, but to write it off and ignore it completely isn't that intelligent either.

As for relievers, it doesn't make sense to look at.  Alfredo Aceves racked up an insane w-l record when he was the long man for the Yankees, because he's coming in games in the 4th inning that he can only win and not lose.  It isn't the same thing. I'm speaking specifically about starting pitchers.
If a stat tells us absolutely nothing, why not ignore it?
Because it doesn't tell us absolutely nothing.  I could repeat what it tells us but, as I said "repeat", that seems absolutely pointless.

Ignoring a stat because you don't like it is dumb.  Which, quite honestly, describes you.
Do you use w-l records when evaluating closer performance? e.g.,

who was better:

closer who went 0-6 (w-l) with 45/51 saves/opps , 1.50 ERA
closer who went 1-0 (w-l) with 45/51 saves/opps, 1.50 ERA

with every other stat in the history of the world identical.

Do you ignore w-l record because it's dumb, and say they both ruled, or do you conclude the 1-0 guy was a better pitcher?
W-L record is a poor way to evaluate closers, since they're usually brought in with a lead and only rarely in a tie game, they have fewer opportunities to earn a W but almost every appearance is an opportunity to result in an L.

That said, one can obviously see that more of the 0-6 guy's appearances turned into team losses as a direct result of his contributions than did the 1-0 guy's appearances.

I think that says something.
12/4/2012 6:13 PM
Posted by bad_luck on 12/4/2012 6:01:00 PM (view original):
In my example the 12-7 guy was 2012 Derek Holland and the 11-12 guy was 2012 Jake Peavy. Who had a better season? 

The W/L records are useless.
Did both 2012 Derek Holland and 2012 Jake Peavy each have 200 IP, allow 190 hits, walk 40 batters, strike out 160 hitters, and allow 25 home runs, with nearly identical ERAs?

Because that's the example we were talking about.
12/4/2012 6:16 PM
Lest we forget, this explosion started when someone started a poll that said

If you answered "somewhat" to the poll above, are you:
Completely Retarded
Brain Dead
The kind of person that thinks Jack Morris is a Hall of Famer

which means, I guess, that bad_luck can't understand why people get so worked up over a pitcher in the HOF just because he won a bunch of games.
12/4/2012 6:19 PM
Posted by tecwrg on 12/4/2012 6:13:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 12/4/2012 6:01:00 PM (view original):
In my example the 12-7 guy was 2012 Derek Holland and the 11-12 guy was 2012 Jake Peavy. Who had a better season? 

The W/L records are useless.
Did both 2012 Derek Holland and 2012 Jake Peavy each have 200 IP, allow 190 hits, walk 40 batters, strike out 160 hitters, and allow 25 home runs, with nearly identical ERAs?

Because that's the example we were talking about.
Either way, the W/L record doesn't tell you anything about how the pitcher actually performed.

All that contextual stuff you said about pitching to the score and high leverage performance isn't revealed in the W/L record. You make a great point that evaluating pitchers requires context. You certainly don't make the point that W/L record adds anything to the discussion.
12/4/2012 6:22 PM
Sure it does.  It adds context of winning and losing games.

If you look in the MLB standings in the morning paper during the summer, you might notice that the standings are listed in order of winning percentage (which is determined by wins and losses), and not in order of FIP, WHIP, ERA+, or any other advanced statistic.

Weird, huh?  Don't they know it's 2012, and that wins and losses is an outdated mode of evaluation?

12/4/2012 6:33 PM
ERA is an advanced stat? That's what most people use to evaluate pitchers with. I know it will sound all newfangled and far out there and ****, but it tells how many earned runs a pitcher gives up per 9IP, on average.

Are you really so profoundly ignorant that you have difficulty in separating pitcher performance (how effective they were at preventing runs) from team performance (how many times the team scored more than their ooponent)?

Or are you in first grade?
12/4/2012 6:34 PM
Posted by tecwrg on 12/4/2012 6:23:00 PM (view original):
Sure it does.  It adds context of winning and losing games.

If you look in the MLB standings in the morning paper during the summer, you might notice that the standings are listed in order of winning percentage (which is determined by wins and losses), and not in order of FIP, WHIP, ERA+, or any other advanced statistic.

Weird, huh?  Don't they know it's 2012, and that wins and losses is an outdated mode of evaluation?

Are you brain damaged?

I say pitcher W/L record doesn't tell us anything about how well a pitcher actually performed. Your response? Team wins matter.

No ****.

If I told you it was raining outside would you respond with, "I prefer to do my homework in pencil and not pen." 
12/4/2012 7:12 PM
Posted by inkdskn on 12/4/2012 5:31:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 12/4/2012 5:23:00 PM (view original):
Posted by burnsy483 on 12/4/2012 5:13:00 PM (view original):
Posted by inkdskn on 12/4/2012 5:10:00 PM (view original):
LOL, look at you burnsy, assigning backstories to your fictional players. You want the opposing team to score as few runs as possible. Statistically speaking, you do that by starting the guy who gave up fewer runs. In case you're not aware, you're making **** up to try to rationalize a statistical anomoly (their w-l records). Fail.
I believe that there are pitchers who do a better job of managing games than others.  Who are capable of pitching better in close games.  Do you think guys pitch the exact same way up 6 runs in the 7th than they do in a 1-0 game?  Some guys will pitch better in certain circumstances than others.

Also, anyone who ends their point with "Fail.", in fact, fails.
Impossible.  While it's possible for hitters to hit to the situation, shorten the swing, hit behind runners, lay down a bunt, it is absolutely impossible for pitchers to pitch to a situation.  It can't be done.  It's been proven thousands upon thousands of times.   Absolutely impossible. 
And you somehow deduce their skills at 'pitching to the situation' from their w-l record, rather than by watching them pitch, like the rest of us?

Interesting.

Two guys, same season, go 12-12. Who was better? Were they good? Bad? Average? That's what w-l record tells you, and illustrates its usefulness as a stat.
Since you're new to the discussion and obviously didn't read anything but this page, W/L record isn't the ultimate stat.   But it's worthy of a paragraph in the book of the game.    One individual thinks it should simply be thrown out.
12/4/2012 7:28 PM
Seems like inkdskn has a pretty good handle on what's going on in this thread. Pitcher W/L record doesn't tell you **** about how well a pitcher actually pitched, whether or not they pitched to the score, whether or not they changed how they pitched based on the situation, how they did in high leverage situations, etc. It's useless.
12/4/2012 7:44 PM
Jack Morris should be in the hall for Game 7 1991 alone.
12/4/2012 7:48 PM
Pitcher A: 20-8 3.18 ERA 1.27 WHIP

Pitcher B: 18-12 3.43 ERA 1.29 WHIP

Same season same team.

Who do you want to start the must win game?
12/4/2012 7:53 PM
Posted by bad_luck on 12/4/2012 7:29:00 PM (view original):
Seems like inkdskn has a pretty good handle on what's going on in this thread. Pitcher W/L record doesn't tell you **** about how well a pitcher actually pitched, whether or not they pitched to the score, whether or not they changed how they pitched based on the situation, how they did in high leverage situations, etc. It's useless.
"W/L record doesn't tell you ****, even in situations where it might tell you ****."
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