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12/5/2012 12:32 PM
Posted by bad_luck on 12/5/2012 12:29:00 PM (view original):
Maybe there isn't one. But what does that have to do with pitcher's W/L???
W/L is part of the story.   As I said, and quoted many times, the W/L is worthy of a paragraph in the book of the game.

Or, IOW, not COMPLETELY WORTHLESS as some would have you believe.
12/5/2012 12:32 PM
Posted by burnsy483 on 12/5/2012 12:31:00 PM (view original):
He also might pitch more games throughout the season.  You can't win 20 games if you don't pitch in enough games.  W-L record also shows your durability throughout the year.
Doesn't GS and IP show that MUCH better?
12/5/2012 12:34 PM
Posted by MikeT23 on 12/5/2012 12:17:00 PM (view original):
If you want to tell me which of these guys, let's just say top 100, are ****** pitchers, I'd be willing to listen to your argument.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/W_career.shtml

Also, if you have time, take a look around that site.   It's pretty decent for looking up baseball stats. 

What about this?   Which one of the guys in the top 100(you can go deeper if you'd like) are ****** pitchers?

12/5/2012 12:36 PM
Posted by bad_luck on 12/5/2012 12:31:00 PM (view original):
Posted by burnsy483 on 12/5/2012 12:29:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 12/5/2012 12:26:00 PM (view original):
Posted by burnsy483 on 12/5/2012 12:25:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 12/5/2012 12:21:00 PM (view original):
Posted by burnsy483 on 12/5/2012 12:21:00 PM (view original):
"any of that back story bullshit" - im assuming you mean the whole "pitching to the score, managing games, etc." I know.  You've said that.  I think you're wrong.  

You've also given no evidence that says I'm wrong.  And I've seen, by watching games, pitchers that dial it up to 95 in big situations where they need outs...you know, up 2-1 with men on in late innings...and dial it back when they're up 7-1 in the 4th.  You can't tell me I didn't see that.
How does win/loss record tell you any of that???
I've seen Pedro Martinez, as a Met, do just what I'm saying.  If he throws 95 all game long, he's probably gassed in the 5th and isn't as effective, and his team loses.  If he doesn't dial it up in a big spot, maybe he loses a close game.  He manages the game effectively and gets a win. 
I'm not saying that doesn't happen.

I'm asking you how W/L record tells that story?
If he throws 95 all the time, he might win more 7-0 games and lose more 3-2 games.  If he doesn't he might win more 7-4 games and win more 2-1 games.  I've already described this.  I don't understand why it's difficult to grasp.
So how does pitcher W/L tell you that he won more 7-0 games and lost more 3-2 games???
Pitcher A throws 95 all the time.  He doesnt save anything in the tank, he pitches the same in all circumstances.  He wins more blowouts, but loses more games because he's more fatigued in close games.  

Pitcher B throws 88 most of the time, dials it up to 95 when he needs to.  The 7-0 win he could have had? It's 7-4 now.  But the close game that Pitcher A loses, he wins.  He is 2-0, and Pitcher B is 1-1.  Pitcher B has a higher ERA, but Pitcher A is more effective.

Pitcher A is also hurt 2/3 through the season.  He finishes 14-9 on the year with a 3.00 ERA.

Pitcher B is not hurt.  He finishes 20-10 on the year with a 3.25 ERA.

I realize its not necessary cut and dry, but I don't see why you dismiss this scenario as impossible.  Please let me know.
12/5/2012 12:38 PM
Posted by bad_luck on 12/4/2012 11:12:00 AM (view original):
This is amazing. I really can't believe how lucky I am to have stumbled upon the last dark corner of the internet where people still argue that a pitcher's win/loss record isn't completely worthless. What a treat. After this are you guys going to argue that the earth is flat? Or make the case for a geocentric solar system?
And the bigger picture? Is this. What does a 20-10 record tell me? It tells me he was at least a very good pitcher.  How is that worthless?
12/5/2012 12:39 PM
Posted by bad_luck on 12/5/2012 12:32:00 PM (view original):
Posted by burnsy483 on 12/5/2012 12:31:00 PM (view original):
He also might pitch more games throughout the season.  You can't win 20 games if you don't pitch in enough games.  W-L record also shows your durability throughout the year.
Doesn't GS and IP show that MUCH better?
They do.  It doesn't mean that W/L record is "COMPLETELY WORTHLESS."  It gives some information about a pitcher.
12/5/2012 12:41 PM
Posted by MikeT23 on 12/5/2012 12:31:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 12/5/2012 8:39:00 AM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 12/4/2012 10:16:00 PM (view original):
If someone has a great ERA, we know they pitched well. They may have been lucky or had great defense behind them, but we know that they were effective in limiting the other teams runs. A win doesn't tell us that. It tells us that they pitched at least five innings, had the lead when they left, and the lead held up. Maybe they were great and pitched 9 shutout innings. Maybe they sucked and gave up 9 runs in 5 innings. We don't know. The stat is useless.
If someone has a great W/L record, we know they pitched well.  Unless, of course, you can find someone with a great W/L record that really stunk it up.

I'll wait here while you find him.

Are you even trying to find this mystery pitcher?

You mean like the 85 pitchers since 1975 who have won at least 15 games and lost no more than 10 and still had an ERA over 4.00??? 

Barry Zito's 2012? Kevin Tapani's 1998? Storm Davis' 1989? Shawn Estes 2004?

Yikes. W/L record is worthless.

12/5/2012 12:41 PM
Posted by MikeT23 on 12/5/2012 12:34:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 12/5/2012 12:17:00 PM (view original):
If you want to tell me which of these guys, let's just say top 100, are ****** pitchers, I'd be willing to listen to your argument.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/W_career.shtml

Also, if you have time, take a look around that site.   It's pretty decent for looking up baseball stats. 

What about this?   Which one of the guys in the top 100(you can go deeper if you'd like) are ****** pitchers?

You'd argue Kevin Brown was a ****** pitcher. :)
12/5/2012 12:44 PM
Posted by burnsy483 on 12/5/2012 12:37:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 12/5/2012 12:31:00 PM (view original):
Posted by burnsy483 on 12/5/2012 12:29:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 12/5/2012 12:26:00 PM (view original):
Posted by burnsy483 on 12/5/2012 12:25:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 12/5/2012 12:21:00 PM (view original):
Posted by burnsy483 on 12/5/2012 12:21:00 PM (view original):
"any of that back story bullshit" - im assuming you mean the whole "pitching to the score, managing games, etc." I know.  You've said that.  I think you're wrong.  

You've also given no evidence that says I'm wrong.  And I've seen, by watching games, pitchers that dial it up to 95 in big situations where they need outs...you know, up 2-1 with men on in late innings...and dial it back when they're up 7-1 in the 4th.  You can't tell me I didn't see that.
How does win/loss record tell you any of that???
I've seen Pedro Martinez, as a Met, do just what I'm saying.  If he throws 95 all game long, he's probably gassed in the 5th and isn't as effective, and his team loses.  If he doesn't dial it up in a big spot, maybe he loses a close game.  He manages the game effectively and gets a win. 
I'm not saying that doesn't happen.

I'm asking you how W/L record tells that story?
If he throws 95 all the time, he might win more 7-0 games and lose more 3-2 games.  If he doesn't he might win more 7-4 games and win more 2-1 games.  I've already described this.  I don't understand why it's difficult to grasp.
So how does pitcher W/L tell you that he won more 7-0 games and lost more 3-2 games???
Pitcher A throws 95 all the time.  He doesnt save anything in the tank, he pitches the same in all circumstances.  He wins more blowouts, but loses more games because he's more fatigued in close games.  

Pitcher B throws 88 most of the time, dials it up to 95 when he needs to.  The 7-0 win he could have had? It's 7-4 now.  But the close game that Pitcher A loses, he wins.  He is 2-0, and Pitcher B is 1-1.  Pitcher B has a higher ERA, but Pitcher A is more effective.

Pitcher A is also hurt 2/3 through the season.  He finishes 14-9 on the year with a 3.00 ERA.

Pitcher B is not hurt.  He finishes 20-10 on the year with a 3.25 ERA.

I realize its not necessary cut and dry, but I don't see why you dismiss this scenario as impossible.  Please let me know.
That's not an impossible scenario. All that context you added tells us something. But the W/L record isn't adding anything.

PItcher B, who pitched a full season with a 3.25 ERA is better than pitcher A, who pitched 1/3 of the season with a 3.00 ERA.
12/5/2012 12:44 PM
Posted by bad_luck on 12/5/2012 12:41:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 12/5/2012 12:31:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 12/5/2012 8:39:00 AM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 12/4/2012 10:16:00 PM (view original):
If someone has a great ERA, we know they pitched well. They may have been lucky or had great defense behind them, but we know that they were effective in limiting the other teams runs. A win doesn't tell us that. It tells us that they pitched at least five innings, had the lead when they left, and the lead held up. Maybe they were great and pitched 9 shutout innings. Maybe they sucked and gave up 9 runs in 5 innings. We don't know. The stat is useless.
If someone has a great W/L record, we know they pitched well.  Unless, of course, you can find someone with a great W/L record that really stunk it up.

I'll wait here while you find him.

Are you even trying to find this mystery pitcher?

You mean like the 85 pitchers since 1975 who have won at least 15 games and lost no more than 10 and still had an ERA over 4.00??? 

Barry Zito's 2012? Kevin Tapani's 1998? Storm Davis' 1989? Shawn Estes 2004?

Yikes. W/L record is worthless.

Barry Zito had a bad year last year? ******* christ.
12/5/2012 12:45 PM
Posted by MikeT23 on 12/5/2012 12:34:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 12/5/2012 12:17:00 PM (view original):
If you want to tell me which of these guys, let's just say top 100, are ****** pitchers, I'd be willing to listen to your argument.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/W_career.shtml

Also, if you have time, take a look around that site.   It's pretty decent for looking up baseball stats. 

What about this?   Which one of the guys in the top 100(you can go deeper if you'd like) are ****** pitchers?

I did this for you.  I got down to Tom Zachary, just eyeballing, at 148 before I found someone that I thought might suck.   186 wins is pretty damn good.  Sadly, he also lost 191.   W/L told me something. 
12/5/2012 12:46 PM
Posted by bad_luck on 12/5/2012 12:07:00 PM (view original):
Posted by mfahie on 12/5/2012 12:02:00 PM (view original):
This thread has more straw men than a corn field.

Could all the people arguing against W/L record STOP ASKING US TO JUDGE PLAYERS BY W/L RECORD ALONE? Nobody EVER claimed that it was valuable to tell two similar pitchers apart out of context.

I think I've read about 15 times in this thread "who's better, 14-8 or 13-10?". ******* STOP IT!



You have some things to learn about dialogue.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gricean_maxims
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Straw_man
It's not a straw man. Pro-W/L posters are arguing that W/L tells gives us something worth paying attention to. WHAT THE **** DOES IT TELL US?

If you tell me a starting pitcher had a 3.40 ERA, I can safely assume he had a solid year. If I tell you that a starting pitcher went 14-9, you have no ******* idea what kind of year he had.
It is absolutely a straw man. And you've gone and repeated it again. I would guess because you're not at all interested at seeing things from someone else's point of view, despite many people attempting in good faith to explain it to you.

Not one person is claiming that W/L BY ITSELF tells you a whole lot (though, as you already admitted, extreme W/L give you some sort of idea about what sort of season a player had, which is a step back from your original point of COMPLETELY WORTHLESS.)

But yet again, for perhaps the 20th time in the thread, you've asked about a context-free 14-9 record. NOBODY IS CLAIMING THAT IT TELLS YOU SOMETHING BY ITSELF.

Maybe I should say that again so you stop, pleaseohpleasestop. NOBODY IS CLAIMING THAT IT TELLS YOU SOMETHING BY ITSELF.



Now, if I have two players who were both somewhat average, with similar ERAs, say 3.80 and 3.73. I hope you'll agree that over the course of a season those two ERA's are more or less the same in terms of pitcher effectiveness, for all the reasons posted in this thread about how ERA is GOOD, but not PERFECT.
Let's also say they pitched a similar number of innings, pitched in similar parks, etc.
Now, one of them is 14-6, and the other is 8-13.

W/L doesn't GUARANTEE that the 14-6 pitcher was better than the 8-13 - the difference could have conceivably been luck (in particular, of course, run support). But over the course of time, the majority of the time, the 14-6 pitcher was better than the 8-13 pitcher. For a variety of reasons.

If we completely eliminate W/L from our view, we would be forced to conclude that the two pitchers were even. But W/L gives us some context to guess that maybe there's something we're not seeing that might have contributed to such a difference in record.
12/5/2012 12:46 PM
Posted by bad_luck on 12/5/2012 12:41:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 12/5/2012 12:31:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 12/5/2012 8:39:00 AM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 12/4/2012 10:16:00 PM (view original):
If someone has a great ERA, we know they pitched well. They may have been lucky or had great defense behind them, but we know that they were effective in limiting the other teams runs. A win doesn't tell us that. It tells us that they pitched at least five innings, had the lead when they left, and the lead held up. Maybe they were great and pitched 9 shutout innings. Maybe they sucked and gave up 9 runs in 5 innings. We don't know. The stat is useless.
If someone has a great W/L record, we know they pitched well.  Unless, of course, you can find someone with a great W/L record that really stunk it up.

I'll wait here while you find him.

Are you even trying to find this mystery pitcher?

You mean like the 85 pitchers since 1975 who have won at least 15 games and lost no more than 10 and still had an ERA over 4.00??? 

Barry Zito's 2012? Kevin Tapani's 1998? Storm Davis' 1989? Shawn Estes 2004?

Yikes. W/L record is worthless.

Is 15-10 "great"?   What's a "great" ERA?   4.49?
12/5/2012 12:47 PM
"That's not an impossible scenario. All that context you added tells us something. But the W/L record isn't adding anything. PItcher B, who pitched a full season with a 3.25 ERA is better than pitcher A, who pitched 1/3 of the season with a 3.00 ERA."

So if all you had was the win-loss record and the ERA, you're picking the pitcher with the better win-loss record and the worse ERA.  So win-loss record is NOT COMPLETELY WORTHLESS!!!!!!!!!!

Thread closed.


12/5/2012 12:47 PM
He had a 4.15 ERA, an 84(!) ERA+, and was worth 0.8 WAR. Yeah, it wasn't good.
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