All Forums > SimLeague Baseball > MLB > Wins and Losses
12/6/2012 4:58 PM
I'm done here, dealing with this idiot.  At least on this topic.

Here's what I propose:

1)  bad_luck can COMPLETELY IGNORE W/L.

2)  Everybody else can regard it as they see fit.

CLOSED
12/6/2012 5:02 PM
Would it shock you if I said that I didn't think Jack Morris was a Hall of Famer?

A 3.00 ERA to 3.25 ERA jump could also be easily explained away.  A 8.5 K/9 to 8.0 K/9 could easily be explained away.  A 3.0 BB/9 to 2.5 BB/9 could easily be explained away.  A 20 win to 17 win season could easily be explained away.  But more often than not, a 20 win pitcher had a better year than a 17 win pitcher.

If you watched every start for 2 players, you wouldn't need to know any stats about him at all, you'd be able to tell me who was better without looking at stats.
12/6/2012 5:07 PM
Posted by burnsy483 on 12/6/2012 5:03:00 PM (view original):
Would it shock you if I said that I didn't think Jack Morris was a Hall of Famer?

A 3.00 ERA to 3.25 ERA jump could also be easily explained away.  A 8.5 K/9 to 8.0 K/9 could easily be explained away.  A 3.0 BB/9 to 2.5 BB/9 could easily be explained away.  A 20 win to 17 win season could easily be explained away.  But more often than not, a 20 win pitcher had a better year than a 17 win pitcher.

If you watched every start for 2 players, you wouldn't need to know any stats about him at all, you'd be able to tell me who was better without looking at stats.
You're missing the point.

You're claiming that W/L record somehow gives you the "pitched better in high leverage situations" back story.

I'm asking you how? Do you assume that the difference in W/L records is always attributable to one pitcher doing better in high leverage situations?


12/6/2012 5:11 PM
The difference in who's W/L records?

12/6/2012 5:13 PM
Two random starting pitchers
12/6/2012 5:14 PM
You must actually think I have an IQ of 17.  

No, I don't think that W-L record just shows you how well someone pitches in high leverage situations.
12/6/2012 5:15 PM
Does K/9 just show you how well a pitcher throws a curveball?  No? Well what stat shows me that?
12/6/2012 5:15 PM
Explain to me how W/L record tells the back story you wrote on the last page?
12/6/2012 5:17 PM
Posted by burnsy483 on 12/6/2012 5:15:00 PM (view original):
Does K/9 just show you how well a pitcher throws a curveball?  No? Well what stat shows me that?
I'm not arguing that it does.

You're arguing that W/L record helps tell you which pitchers manage the game better.

If I was arguing that K rate told me which pitchers were better at striking people out, and you asked me how that is, it would be a pretty simple and easy explanation.
12/6/2012 5:26 PM
To make it easy for you.

How does the stuff in red tell you anything about the stuff in green?
Pitcher A throws 95 all the time.  He doesnt save anything in the tank, he pitches the same in all circumstances.  He wins more blowouts, but loses more games because he's more fatigued in close games.  

Pitcher B throws 88 most of the time, dials it up to 95+ when he needs to.  The 7-0 win he could have had? It's 7-4 now.  But the close game that Pitcher A loses, he wins.  He is 2-0, and Pitcher B is 1-1
.  Pitcher B has a higher ERA, but Pitcher A is more effective.

Pitcher A finishes 17-12 on the year with a 3.00 ERA.  Better numbers overall, based on giving everything he's got all season.

Pitcher B finishes 20-10 on the year with a 3.25 ERA.  He wins more games because that he is BETTER than Pitcher A in big situations, because he has more in the tank when he needs it.  When he doesn't need it, he lets up, and wins the 9-6 game you rip him for.  

I know it's not that easy.  Just like you can't look at any one stat and say "3 ERA and 3.25 ERA? Well the 3 ERA guy is better!" You don't know everything that led to that.  And you could probably dig deeper and deeper, but unless you watched every inning of that pitcher's starts, you won't know the whole story of that pitcher's season.  

I am not explaining this scenario again.  It's been several times.
12/6/2012 6:13 PM
Pitcher A and Pitcher B are the same pitcher.  Do you see that?  They have the same stuff.  In one scenario, the pitcher is pitching in a smarter way, and it results in more wins.  There are many factors that goes into W-L record, so obviously I'm not going to assume that anyone who wins 20 games is better in high leverage situations.  But someone who does pitch better in those situations will win more games, possibly without a noticeable difference in other statistics.

Remember Tebowmania last year? Kyle Orton started the season and the team was bad.  Everybody played poorly, including the defense.  Tebow took over, and even though he was not a good QB, the team won games.  The running game was better, the defense was better...there was something about Tebow playing that seemed to result in more wins.  Maybe it was leadership? I don't know.  But he won games.  

If a pitcher accumulates wins, maybe its because he pitches well in high leverage situations.  Maybe it isn't.  I don't think Jack Morris should be in the Hall of Fame.  I know you posted research, but I did my own research in the past.  Morris has nearly the exact same numbers regardless of the situation.  He is Pitcher A.  But, he won games at a higher rate than most would expect.  Why? Could it be that Morris has a reputation as a bulldog, a grinder, and the offense is more confident, goes to bat (literally and figuratively) for him, plays great defense behind him, is more confident with him playing? There's obviously something more - his teams weren't always so fantastic that it would justify that winning percentage when his ERA+ was so ordinary.

A pitcher goes and takes the mound with the goal to win the game.  He feels he accomplishes his goal when he wins, not when he allows 2 runs over 8 innings.  So W-L record means SOMETHING.  It's part of the story.
12/6/2012 6:29 PM
Pitcher A and Pitcher B are the same pitcher.  Do you see that?  They have the same stuff.  In one scenario, the pitcher is pitching in a smarter way, and it results in more wins.  There are many factors that goes into W-L record, so obviously I'm not going to assume that anyone who wins 20 games is better in high leverage situations.  But someone who does pitch better in those situations will win more games, possibly without a noticeable difference in other statistics.

Well, no, how could I have known that? They are figments of your imagination. WPA et al will tell you how well a pitcher did in high leverage situations. Wins only tell you that the pitcher pitched at least 5 innings and left the game with a lead that held up.


A pitcher goes and takes the mound with the goal to win the game.  He feels he accomplishes his goal when he wins, not when he allows 2 runs over 8 innings.  So W-L record means SOMETHING.  It's part of the story.

W/L means something because it makes the pitcher feel good? Jesus christ.


12/6/2012 6:37 PM
"But someone who does pitch better in those situations will win more games, possibly without a noticeable difference in other statistics."




lol
12/6/2012 6:39 PM
I love the way you can take things in one statement and ignore others to make a point. In the statement about "feeling good" the point was that the pitcher was accomplishing his goal when he wins. It wasn't meant to be warm and fuzzy.

Who had the highest WPA this year?
12/6/2012 6:40 PM
Posted by inkdskn on 12/6/2012 6:37:00 PM (view original):
"But someone who does pitch better in those situations will win more games, possibly without a noticeable difference in other statistics."




lol
Yes, you've already shown the inability to grasp this information. Thanks for your input.

lol
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