All Forums > SimLeague Baseball > MLB > Wins and Losses
12/6/2012 6:46 PM
Posted by burnsy483 on 12/6/2012 6:39:00 PM (view original):
I love the way you can take things in one statement and ignore others to make a point. In the statement about "feeling good" the point was that the pitcher was accomplishing his goal when he wins. It wasn't meant to be warm and fuzzy.

Who had the highest WPA this year?
The team goal is to win. The pitcher's goal is to prevent runs from scoring.

Mike Trout
12/6/2012 6:51 PM
The pitchers goal is to win. Ask a pitcher if his goal is to win, or to allow the least amount of runs, and he will likely say "win."

And I meant for pitchers. You said you can tell who pitched best in high-leverage situations best on WPA. Who did?
12/6/2012 6:52 PM
And yes, I understand it's about the process - fewers runs is best. But I've explained that there are pitchers who aren't necessarily doing everything they can in 7-0 games to pitch a shutout.
12/6/2012 6:57 PM
You have repeatedly made up backstories describing scenarios where one pitcher with a better w-l record, despite having a higher ERA, could reasonably be called the better pitcher. These backstories involve their performance in 'high-leverage' scenarios, and you claim that this difference is reflected in their w-l record.

However, you seem unaware, or simply don't care, that we could just as easily reverse the backstories, so that the guy with the better ERA was better in the high-leverage scenarios. You don't give much weight to all the factors that could still result in the better guy in high-leverage cases getting a L/ND, such as a terrible bullpen, anemic offense, etc.

Whether you realize it or not, your scenarios effectively state that a reasonable person can guess that the guy with a better w-l record was better "when it mattered." The fact that w-l does not show strong correlation to this seems completely lost on you. Did a guy with a good w-l record pitch well when it mattered? Maybe. You don't know. He might have just been a guy who could go 5 innings, and had a good offense to back him up. Does a poor w-l record mean a guy sucked 'when it mattered?' Maybe. You don't know. He may have actually been one of the best pitchers in the league (in terms of preventing runs, which is his job), but had a terrible offense backing him up.

Does that sound like a particularly useful for measuring performance to you? Why would you want to guess when you look at so many other stats that simply show how many runs he gave up? Why would you use w-l to guess how he did, when w-l has a much stronger correlation to run support than actual pitching performance (preventing runs)?
12/6/2012 6:58 PM
Posted by burnsy483 on 12/6/2012 6:51:00 PM (view original):
The pitchers goal is to win. Ask a pitcher if his goal is to win, or to allow the least amount of runs, and he will likely say "win."

And I meant for pitchers. You said you can tell who pitched best in high-leverage situations best on WPA. Who did?
Every player's goal is to win the game. Pitchers contribute to game winning by preventing runs from scoring. That's how we evaluate pitchers and that's why W/L record is a terrible way to evaluate them. It incorporates offense and bullpen performance and they have zero control over that.

Verlander
12/6/2012 7:01 PM
Posted by inkdskn on 12/6/2012 6:57:00 PM (view original):
You have repeatedly made up backstories describing scenarios where one pitcher with a better w-l record, despite having a higher ERA, could reasonably be called the better pitcher. These backstories involve their performance in 'high-leverage' scenarios, and you claim that this difference is reflected in their w-l record.

However, you seem unaware, or simply don't care, that we could just as easily reverse the backstories, so that the guy with the better ERA was better in the high-leverage scenarios. You don't give much weight to all the factors that could still result in the better guy in high-leverage cases getting a L/ND, such as a terrible bullpen, anemic offense, etc.

Whether you realize it or not, your scenarios effectively state that a reasonable person can guess that the guy with a better w-l record was better "when it mattered." The fact that w-l does not show strong correlation to this seems completely lost on you. Did a guy with a good w-l record pitch well when it mattered? Maybe. You don't know. He might have just been a guy who could go 5 innings, and had a good offense to back him up. Does a poor w-l record mean a guy sucked 'when it mattered?' Maybe. You don't know. He may have actually been one of the best pitchers in the league (in terms of preventing runs, which is his job), but had a terrible offense backing him up.

Does that sound like a particularly useful for measuring performance to you? Why would you want to guess when you look at so many other stats that simply show how many runs he gave up? Why would you use w-l to guess how he did, when w-l has a much stronger correlation to run support than actual pitching performance (preventing runs)?
I've never said that w/l record was better or worse than any other statistic. I've only been trying to show that the stat is not completely useless.
12/6/2012 7:03 PM
"I've never said that w/l record was better or worse than any other statistic."

- So you put W/L on equal ground with ERA? Really?
12/6/2012 7:05 PM
Posted by inkdskn on 12/6/2012 7:03:00 PM (view original):
"I've never said that w/l record was better or worse than any other statistic."

- So you put W/L on equal ground with ERA? Really?
I misspoke. I actually did say that ERA is much more important.
12/6/2012 7:06 PM
But it is useless. In 20+ pages you have yet to show an example where W/L record is necessary.
12/6/2012 7:07 PM
Posted by bad_luck on 12/6/2012 6:58:00 PM (view original):
Posted by burnsy483 on 12/6/2012 6:51:00 PM (view original):
The pitchers goal is to win. Ask a pitcher if his goal is to win, or to allow the least amount of runs, and he will likely say "win."

And I meant for pitchers. You said you can tell who pitched best in high-leverage situations best on WPA. Who did?
Every player's goal is to win the game. Pitchers contribute to game winning by preventing runs from scoring. That's how we evaluate pitchers and that's why W/L record is a terrible way to evaluate them. It incorporates offense and bullpen performance and they have zero control over that.

Verlander
Tell me if I'm wrong, but from what I understand, WPA, when looking at a full season, is skewed towards those in the most high-leverage situations. If you pitch great, and aren't in any, your WPA is low. Correct?
12/6/2012 7:08 PM
OK.

Do you think w-l has more value than allowing a person to guess how a pitcher performed, e.g., in 'high-leverage' situations?

That's the only point that I think has been made by pro-w/l posts here. I don't put much value in that because the guess is likely to be incorrect for a myriad of reasons. Do you see more in it than that?
12/6/2012 7:10 PM
Well, it's a counting stat. The more playing time you get, the higher the number. But it's a +/- type thing, so just being in more high leverage situations doesn't automatically lead to a higher number, as failure in those situations brings the number down.

Fangraphs definition
12/6/2012 7:11 PM
Posted by bad_luck on 12/6/2012 7:11:00 PM (view original):
Well, it's a counting stat. The more playing time you get, the higher the number. But it's a +/- type thing, so just being in more high leverage situations doesn't automatically lead to a higher number, as failure in those situations brings the number down.

Fangraphs definition
Right, but pitchers generally succeed more often than they fail.
12/6/2012 7:14 PM
Posted by bad_luck on 12/6/2012 7:06:00 PM (view original):
But it is useless. In 20+ pages you have yet to show an example where W/L record is necessary.
No stat is necessary. If you gave me W-L record, FIP, WHIP, K/9, BB/9, IP, ballpark he pitched in, team he pitched for, HR allowed, LOB %, GB/FB ratio, defensive players who played behind him...and asked me if I needed ERA? I'd probably tell you no, it's not necessary.
12/6/2012 7:17 PM
Posted by inkdskn on 12/6/2012 7:08:00 PM (view original):
OK.

Do you think w-l has more value than allowing a person to guess how a pitcher performed, e.g., in 'high-leverage' situations?

That's the only point that I think has been made by pro-w/l posts here. I don't put much value in that because the guess is likely to be incorrect for a myriad of reasons. Do you see more in it than that?
I'm not sure I entirely understand your question. But yes, I think W-L record has more value than allowing anyone to guess how a pitcher preformed.
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