All Forums > SimLeague Baseball > MLB > Predicting future HOF elections.
1/5/2013 9:42 PM
There is going to be a lot of spirited talk about the HOF results this week, and I actually like David Schoenfeld, especially compared to most other writers on ESPN.

This is a pretty interesting piece and I thought about how the next couple elections might play out, and with all the big names coming up for election, are we bound to have a 5 or 6 player class???

espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/31870/predicting-future-hall-of-fame-elections
1/7/2013 11:33 AM
If Morris gets in and no one else, this will be one of the worst ballot years of all time.

Bonds, Clemens, Bagwell, Biggio, Piazza, and Raines should be in easily. I'd also vote for Trammell, McGwire, Martinez, Schilling, and probably Walker.
1/7/2013 1:19 PM
If it's just Morris, that would be absurd.  I'd love to hear an explanation on how at one point, less than 20% of voters thought Morris was worthy, and how that would grow to 75%+.  He didn't do anything in the last 12 years to make his case better.  And if we're voting for "non-roiders" than Biggio and Raines are much more worthy.
1/9/2013 5:49 PM
Morris, Blyleven, etc. are classic examples why the eligibility should be shortened to 10 years, if not shorter. I'm not saying they should or shouldn't be in, but if it takes you 15 years to build up a case and "convince" people to let you in, you're not a HOFer. Period.
1/9/2013 5:50 PM
Posted by Got_Worms on 1/5/2013 9:42:00 PM (view original):
There is going to be a lot of spirited talk about the HOF results this week, and I actually like David Schoenfeld, especially compared to most other writers on ESPN.

This is a pretty interesting piece and I thought about how the next couple elections might play out, and with all the big names coming up for election, are we bound to have a 5 or 6 player class???

espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/31870/predicting-future-hall-of-fame-elections
It's possible, but I'd say it's more likely the votes are spread around and some potentially deserving names get bumped from the ballot far too soon.
1/9/2013 6:03 PM
Posted by Jtpsops on 1/9/2013 5:49:00 PM (view original):
Morris, Blyleven, etc. are classic examples why the eligibility should be shortened to 10 years, if not shorter. I'm not saying they should or shouldn't be in, but if it takes you 15 years to build up a case and "convince" people to let you in, you're not a HOFer. Period.
I like the 15 year window. It gives voters time to correct mistakes (Blyleven) and only rarely do undeserving players sneak in...cough...Rice....cough...Dawson.
1/9/2013 6:06 PM
This is why the voting should be changed - or the voter pool expanded. If voters need 15 years to "get it right" or be convinced of a guy's worthiness, they're either too dumb to vote, or too easily influenced to have the vote.
1/9/2013 6:08 PM
I'll go with the former.
1/9/2013 6:13 PM
Posted by Jtpsops on 1/9/2013 5:50:00 PM (view original):
Posted by Got_Worms on 1/5/2013 9:42:00 PM (view original):
There is going to be a lot of spirited talk about the HOF results this week, and I actually like David Schoenfeld, especially compared to most other writers on ESPN.

This is a pretty interesting piece and I thought about how the next couple elections might play out, and with all the big names coming up for election, are we bound to have a 5 or 6 player class???

espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/31870/predicting-future-hall-of-fame-elections
It's possible, but I'd say it's more likely the votes are spread around and some potentially deserving names get bumped from the ballot far too soon.
I dont think Lofton is a HOFer...but I'm surprised he got as few votes as he did. I also thought Bernie would get more votes this year.
1/9/2013 6:15 PM
Posted by bad_luck on 1/9/2013 6:03:00 PM (view original):
Posted by Jtpsops on 1/9/2013 5:49:00 PM (view original):
Morris, Blyleven, etc. are classic examples why the eligibility should be shortened to 10 years, if not shorter. I'm not saying they should or shouldn't be in, but if it takes you 15 years to build up a case and "convince" people to let you in, you're not a HOFer. Period.
I like the 15 year window. It gives voters time to correct mistakes (Blyleven) and only rarely do undeserving players sneak in...cough...Rice....cough...Dawson.
I think Blyleven is more deserving than Morris, but it's another example of "what did he do to convince 65% of voters in 12 years that he is suddenly HOF worthy?" Think about it...he once got 14.1% of the vote.
1/9/2013 6:22 PM
Joe Dimaggio got less than half the vote his first year on the ballot. Eddie Matthews only got 32% his first year. Voters are idiots.

We can look at the numbers and see that Blyleven belongs. If it takes voters 15 years to realize this fact, it's a good thing that they had 15 years to do it.
1/9/2013 6:39 PM
Im tempted to argue against Blyleven but that isn't the point here and I won't do it.

Overall, it's a shame nobody got in, with so many deserving candidates.
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