All Forums > SimLeague Baseball > MLB > WAR question
8/16/2013 2:20 PM
Posted by MikeT23 on 8/16/2013 2:17:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 8/16/2013 1:56:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 8/16/2013 11:36:00 AM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 8/16/2013 11:24:00 AM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 8/16/2013 9:43:00 AM (view original):
**** sandwich.   Sometimes it's the best thing on the menu.   Maybe it's better to just be hungry.
Just like RBI and pitcher wins were the best thing we had for a long time. I don't remember hearing you argue that we shouldn't have used them.

There is no statnerd standing around saying "I think, on the whole, that the league average LF would have gotten an RBI in that situation."     You either drive in the run or you don't.    Not so much with UZR.    Some geek is determining if a ball should have been caught.

Actually, it's a scout. How else can it be done?
Maybe it's something that can't be done with any accuracy.    Maybe doing it is pointless because of that. 
Maybe doing it's OK, but we should understand that unless it gets better, it's not much better than wins and RBI as ways to determine value.
8/16/2013 2:22 PM
As you just mentioned, WAR is a pretty popular stat.   Throwing a seriously flawed number into the equation isn't a good thing. 
8/16/2013 2:23 PM
Posted by MikeT23 on 8/16/2013 2:22:00 PM (view original):
As you just mentioned, WAR is a pretty popular stat.   Throwing a seriously flawed number into the equation isn't a good thing. 
Yes, I agree.
8/16/2013 3:05 PM
Yet, you don't know that UZR is flawed. Imperfect doesn't mean flawed.
8/16/2013 3:08 PM
Flawed in the sense that a computer determines whether a player made a good play defensively or not, based on data that's essentially guesstimates.
8/16/2013 3:27 PM
Posted by burnsy483 on 8/16/2013 3:08:00 PM (view original):
Flawed in the sense that a computer determines whether a player made a good play defensively or not, based on data that's essentially guesstimates.
Is that true or are you assuming?
8/16/2013 3:30 PM
Posted by bad_luck on 8/16/2013 3:05:00 PM (view original):
Yet, you don't know that UZR is flawed. Imperfect doesn't mean flawed.
Huh?

adjective
1.
conforming absolutely to the description or definition of an ideal type: a perfect sphere; a perfect gentleman.
2.
excellent or complete beyond practical or theoretical improvement: There is no perfect legal code. The proportions of this temple are almost perfect.
3.
exactly fitting the need in a certain situation or for a certain purpose: a perfect actor to play Mr. Micawber; a perfect saw for cutting out keyholes.
4.
entirely without any flaws, defects, or shortcomings: a perfect apple; the perfect crime.
5.
accurate, exact, or correct in every detail: a perfect copy.
8/16/2013 3:40 PM
Words have meanings.  If you're not sure what a word means maybe you shouldn't use it.   Or, at the very least, look it up before you make yourself look foolish.
8/16/2013 3:42 PM
Posted by MikeT23 on 8/16/2013 3:30:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 8/16/2013 3:05:00 PM (view original):
Yet, you don't know that UZR is flawed. Imperfect doesn't mean flawed.
Huh?

adjective
1.
conforming absolutely to the description or definition of an ideal type: a perfect sphere; a perfect gentleman.
2.
excellent or complete beyond practical or theoretical improvement: There is no perfect legal code. The proportions of this temple are almost perfect.
3.
exactly fitting the need in a certain situation or for a certain purpose: a perfect actor to play Mr. Micawber; a perfect saw for cutting out keyholes.
4.
entirely without any flaws, defects, or shortcomings: a perfect apple; the perfect crime.
5.
accurate, exact, or correct in every detail: a perfect copy.
Christ, bis.

Use some ******* context. An imperfect stat gives us an inexact calculation of a player's contribution. A flawed stat doesn't tell us anything about a player's contribution.

Example:

ERA tells us roughly how good a pitcher is at preventing runs from scoring. It's imperfect, there's all kinds of other noise involved, but it gives us an idea.

Pitcher W/L is flawed. It arbitrarily assigns a W/L to a pitcher without regard to how well he actually pitched. It tells us virtually nothing about the pitcher's contribution. 
8/16/2013 3:43 PM
Posted by MikeT23 on 8/16/2013 3:40:00 PM (view original):
Words have meanings.  If you're not sure what a word means maybe you shouldn't use it.   Or, at the very least, look it up before you make yourself look foolish.
You mean like deficit? Or government bonds?
8/16/2013 3:51 PM
No.  Like there are no Atheist organizations. 
8/16/2013 3:53 PM
Posted by MikeT23 on 8/16/2013 3:51:00 PM (view original):
No.  Like there are no Atheist organizations. 
I literally had never heard of one. I didn't think they existed.

Pretty sure I didn't spend 30 pages arguing the point with you, though. Unlike you...cough...the deficit...cough.
8/16/2013 3:53 PM
Posted by bad_luck on 8/16/2013 3:27:00 PM (view original):
Posted by burnsy483 on 8/16/2013 3:08:00 PM (view original):
Flawed in the sense that a computer determines whether a player made a good play defensively or not, based on data that's essentially guesstimates.
Is that true or are you assuming?
I know it to be true, but I've been wrong before.  From my understanding, whoever is calculating UZR each game determines what "zone" the ball fell into.  We don't have grids in the outfield like we do at home plate for balls and strikes, right?  So after the scorer determines to the best of his ability where the ball fell, we can determine if that's an area where the outfielder should have caught the ball.  

When a ball is hit into a certain zone, does it take into affect whether or not it was a pop up? A line drive? Because there's a difference between a line drive into the gap and a skyscraping fly ball.
8/16/2013 4:01 PM
Posted by burnsy483 on 8/16/2013 3:53:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 8/16/2013 3:27:00 PM (view original):
Posted by burnsy483 on 8/16/2013 3:08:00 PM (view original):
Flawed in the sense that a computer determines whether a player made a good play defensively or not, based on data that's essentially guesstimates.
Is that true or are you assuming?
I know it to be true, but I've been wrong before.  From my understanding, whoever is calculating UZR each game determines what "zone" the ball fell into.  We don't have grids in the outfield like we do at home plate for balls and strikes, right?  So after the scorer determines to the best of his ability where the ball fell, we can determine if that's an area where the outfielder should have caught the ball.  

When a ball is hit into a certain zone, does it take into affect whether or not it was a pop up? A line drive? Because there's a difference between a line drive into the gap and a skyscraping fly ball.
I think that's contemplated.

This is from the guy that invented UZR (bold mine):

The chat had like 2 or 3 answers (with a lot of good questions) and ended 5 days ago?  Anyone know what happened?

I agree that the answer to the question about similarities and differences between plus/minus and UZR was pretty good.  I’ll make some comments one by one:

Similarities

* Both use BIS Data. UZR started with STATS data, but the most commonly referenced version uses BIS data.

Correct.

* Both have the same idea- break down balls in play by type, location, velocity
* Both are measured on an above/below average scale. 
* Both have runs saved systems with components for GDP, OF Arms, Range.

8/16/2013 4:13 PM
Also this: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/blog_article/how-reliable-is-uzr/

The takeaway:

  • Everything regresses to the mean. A hitter in 300 PAs should be regressed roughly 50% to the mean. (Assuming all you have is those 300 PAs, of course.)
  • Defensive metrics are less reliable than offensive metrics. (Which - see above - are not as reliable as they are sometimes treated, when it comes to determining a player's inherent level of ability.)
  • An infielder's UZR is more reliable than an outfielder's UZR. This is partly because an outfielder sees fewer chances than an infielder, and partly because outfield defense is more difficult to measure than infield defense.
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