All Forums > SimLeague Baseball > MLB > Defensive Metrics
8/31/2013 12:10 PM
if a mountain sheep is called a ram, and if a donkey is called an a$$, then why is a ram in the a$$ called a goose?




Votes: 9
(Last vote received: 9/3/2013 11:11 AM)
8/31/2013 12:20 PM
I'm curious, with around one month left to go in the 2013 season, what BL's take on "Trout vs. Cabrera" is.
8/31/2013 11:54 PM (edited)
using the wide-world of no defense for the defensive metrics, a 3rd non-possibility can be a mathematical scenario associated with the following 0 for 7 numbers below.

trout starts a season as dh, and bats safely in the first 79 games. hitting safely in 80 straight does not happen, as the first 0-3 appears in the boxscore. trout then immediately begins the 81st game with another hitting streak, lasting 77 games, hitting safely in 156 of 157 games, when fatigue proves an 0-4 day in the batters box for game no.#158.

since he has now accumulated 2 games, totaling 0-7, he can then be placed in the outfield for the last 4 games of the season, completely offsetting any possible poor defensive play, limited to those last 4 games. defensive metrics makes this happen. like accupuncture, to the eyes.

once again exampling whatever. maybe a neon sign flashing "closed."

have a nice thread. 

 

9/1/2013 11:24 AM
Posted by tecwrg on 8/31/2013 12:20:00 PM (view original):
I'm curious, with around one month left to go in the 2013 season, what BL's take on "Trout vs. Cabrera" is.
This year? I'll take Cabrera. The difference offensively is so big that Trout's large defensive and base running advantages don't make up the difference.
9/2/2013 4:02 PM (edited)
Posted by burnsy483 on 8/31/2013 11:39:00 AM (view original):
"And right now, Trout's defensive season just isn't that good."

So what's the argument? Trout is worse defensively this year?  Based on what, what is he doing wrong compared to last year?
 
excuse me. lots of evidence exists from the thread founder, in his first post in a couple of days, even though he must be doing something wrong, picking the proper username to make his contentions contentious.

in reviewing trout vs. cabrera, circa 2013, the shabby defensive glove not catching 2 balls that were supposed to be caught and all the 0-7's which are the BASICS of basically converted defensive numbers into offensive ones, so that they may compared on an equal linear weight, along with the rare occurence of this happening to only 2 other ballplayers this year, can only mean one thing. that i must be brief.

trouts poor defensive play is a large defensive advantage over cabrera. surely u get that large part, right? so neccessary to the description. its not that trout and cabrera must be mvps, but defensive advantages are still large.

blind people reading baseball statistics in braille are capable of seeing far better. and seeing-eye dogs do a far better job of interpreting the path of the blind. since our thread founder is self-appointed as the better german-sheperd here, what is the point of reminding his blind followers that they can see what he see's?

if we tell him we are blind to his numbers, he just barks some more, only now, in two day intervals. keep eating the alpo, bad_luck. must be a nice alternative to eating $h!t that isn't in a sandwich form. leave us blind baseball lovers alone. close your thread.

so, trout has a LARGE defensive advantage, playing poorly in the field, and being one of two guys who missed two flyballs this year. who made the rule that it boils down to this? how come the other guy, the one who also did not catch two balls isnt also in the running for mvp, since he compares with trout? if this thread can go on and on, then so can i, in opposition. 
9/1/2013 12:33 PM
Posted by burnsy483 on 8/31/2013 11:39:00 AM (view original):
"And right now, Trout's defensive season just isn't that good."

So what's the argument? Trout is worse defensively this year?  Based on what, what is he doing wrong compared to last year?
 
I guess the argument is that he's not making the plays he made last year.
9/1/2013 12:42 PM
Posted by bad_luck on 9/1/2013 11:25:00 AM (view original):
Posted by tecwrg on 8/31/2013 12:20:00 PM (view original):
I'm curious, with around one month left to go in the 2013 season, what BL's take on "Trout vs. Cabrera" is.
This year? I'll take Cabrera. The difference offensively is so big that Trout's large defensive and base running advantages don't make up the difference.
defensive and running numbers have no bearing on mvp choices, or hall of fame votes, when up against batting and pitching statistics.

get it right. a player can only fit into 4 categories in this game. pitcher. batter. runner. fielder.

pitchers stats have the greater weight, since pitchers have the dominant success rate. the pitcher starts every play in baseball.

batter stats have weight, since they show the success rates against pitchers.

runners who end up as mvps, or in the hall, can only be of the type of their high success predecessor's. cobb, wills, brock, henderson types. trout cannot and will not ever win such an award, or make the hall, unless he were to outperform those who ran before he became a runner.

fielders like ozzie, and brooks do not win mvps or hall nods unless they excell in any of the above 3 categories first, in a manner that outperforms those who tread the diamonds before them.

trout has barely 2 years in the majors. u have no authority to use defensive metrics, to kick edgar martinez out of contention for the hall of fame, so that u can place trout in the hall today, bypassing the possibility of his numbers having any bearing over the next 15 years.

and so we wait for two days, for two sentences, that still do not make u look good at evaluating players. keep up the drama. close the thread.
9/2/2013 6:05 PM (edited)
in the mean time, while we wait for tomorrow's anticipated bark from the thread-founder, let's type cars, automobiles, and roadsters, shall we?

for those of you who purchased the 2012 model of the well-appointed "Trout", and your fred lynn paint-job is losing it's luster, then we are left with no choice but to scour an after-market for a shiny "clear-coat", to preserve the guaranteed frank robinson re-sale value, 20 years from now, when the top-coat is correctly applied, and of course, to last as long as when the warranty expires.

there are many among us who are not disappointed, or surprised at what trout is truly doing, numbers-wise. young ballplayers are generally not expected to perform at hall of fame, or mvp levels of excellence. the investment in trout relies on other southern california rookie-of-the-year winners. the 2012 "Trout" isn't a 1965 Ford Mustang. he is a mike piazza, and fernando valenzuela, and raul mondesi, and hideo nomo, as a young ballplayer under the hollywood floodlights. &, the only thing u seem to type about is that trout does not meet your expectations.

cabrera is still 3 models, all-in-one, all-purpose designed for cruising the baseball landscape of numbers. this luxury model, made in detroit, handles hailstorms of pitches, while the 2013 "Trout" must atone for not having the acceleration and horsepower to out-run a batted ball. either the 2012, or the 2013 models of the cabrera, equipped with all-wheel drive, and having impressed sportswriters that are not associated with espn, is destined to appear in showrooms for the 2014 model year, as well.

if u are planning to attend any award ceremonies this year, then why not arrive in-style, in a cabrera, of course. winner of last years triple crown award as the vehicle most profitable to the automotive insurance companies of america.

this has been a public service message post, paid for by the automotive insurance companies of america. and your local cabrera car dealers association.

with the reminder to obey smokey-the-bear, extinguish your burning "Trout", close the thread, and leave the forest. thank u. 
9/2/2013 11:04 PM
Love it
9/3/2013 10:18 AM
Posted by bad_luck on 9/1/2013 12:33:00 PM (view original):
Posted by burnsy483 on 8/31/2013 11:39:00 AM (view original):
"And right now, Trout's defensive season just isn't that good."

So what's the argument? Trout is worse defensively this year?  Based on what, what is he doing wrong compared to last year?
 
I guess the argument is that he's not making the plays he made last year.
Why? What is he doing differently?
9/3/2013 10:26 AM
Posted by burnsy483 on 9/3/2013 10:18:00 AM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 9/1/2013 12:33:00 PM (view original):
Posted by burnsy483 on 8/31/2013 11:39:00 AM (view original):
"And right now, Trout's defensive season just isn't that good."

So what's the argument? Trout is worse defensively this year?  Based on what, what is he doing wrong compared to last year?
 
I guess the argument is that he's not making the plays he made last year.
Why? What is he doing differently?
I think they have an example in the article. There was a low liner that Trout could have risked a dive for (a play he made at times last year). Instead he pulled up and let it fall, then he had trouble handling the bounce.
9/3/2013 10:33 AM
Posted by bad_luck on 9/3/2013 10:26:00 AM (view original):
Posted by burnsy483 on 9/3/2013 10:18:00 AM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 9/1/2013 12:33:00 PM (view original):
Posted by burnsy483 on 8/31/2013 11:39:00 AM (view original):
"And right now, Trout's defensive season just isn't that good."

So what's the argument? Trout is worse defensively this year?  Based on what, what is he doing wrong compared to last year?
 
I guess the argument is that he's not making the plays he made last year.
Why? What is he doing differently?
I think they have an example in the article. There was a low liner that Trout could have risked a dive for (a play he made at times last year). Instead he pulled up and let it fall, then he had trouble handling the bounce.
Is there a stat for that, or is that "you have to watch the game" kind of thing?
9/3/2013 10:39 AM
Posted by bad_luck on 9/3/2013 10:26:00 AM (view original):
Posted by burnsy483 on 9/3/2013 10:18:00 AM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 9/1/2013 12:33:00 PM (view original):
Posted by burnsy483 on 8/31/2013 11:39:00 AM (view original):
"And right now, Trout's defensive season just isn't that good."

So what's the argument? Trout is worse defensively this year?  Based on what, what is he doing wrong compared to last year?
 
I guess the argument is that he's not making the plays he made last year.
Why? What is he doing differently?
I think they have an example in the article. There was a low liner that Trout could have risked a dive for (a play he made at times last year). Instead he pulled up and let it fall, then he had trouble handling the bounce.
One play. 

Is it possible that there just isn't as many fly balls hit to him this year that there were last year?  That he is actually playing just as well, but the opportunity to put up a great defensive number isn't there?
9/3/2013 11:31 AM
Posted by tecwrg on 9/3/2013 10:33:00 AM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 9/3/2013 10:26:00 AM (view original):
Posted by burnsy483 on 9/3/2013 10:18:00 AM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 9/1/2013 12:33:00 PM (view original):
Posted by burnsy483 on 8/31/2013 11:39:00 AM (view original):
"And right now, Trout's defensive season just isn't that good."

So what's the argument? Trout is worse defensively this year?  Based on what, what is he doing wrong compared to last year?
 
I guess the argument is that he's not making the plays he made last year.
Why? What is he doing differently?
I think they have an example in the article. There was a low liner that Trout could have risked a dive for (a play he made at times last year). Instead he pulled up and let it fall, then he had trouble handling the bounce.
Is there a stat for that, or is that "you have to watch the game" kind of thing?
Did you read my original post or the article I linked?
9/3/2013 11:36 AM
Posted by burnsy483 on 9/3/2013 10:39:00 AM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 9/3/2013 10:26:00 AM (view original):
Posted by burnsy483 on 9/3/2013 10:18:00 AM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 9/1/2013 12:33:00 PM (view original):
Posted by burnsy483 on 8/31/2013 11:39:00 AM (view original):
"And right now, Trout's defensive season just isn't that good."

So what's the argument? Trout is worse defensively this year?  Based on what, what is he doing wrong compared to last year?
 
I guess the argument is that he's not making the plays he made last year.
Why? What is he doing differently?
I think they have an example in the article. There was a low liner that Trout could have risked a dive for (a play he made at times last year). Instead he pulled up and let it fall, then he had trouble handling the bounce.
One play. 

Is it possible that there just isn't as many fly balls hit to him this year that there were last year?  That he is actually playing just as well, but the opportunity to put up a great defensive number isn't there?
One example.

Of course that's possible. He has less innings in center this season and BIS has him at 12 good plays to 16 misplays. Last year (in more innings) he had 26 good plays and 17 misplays.

I think the biggest difference is that he isn't turning low percentage chances into outs as often this year. In 60 low percentage chances (compared to 83 last year) as a CF, he has 19 less catches.

Here's a chart from the article:

Mike Trout
On Plays w/ Expected Out Rate
Between 5 percent and 50 percent

  2012 2013
Chances as LF 20 16
Balls Caught 6 3
Success Rate 30% 19%
 
Chances as CF 83 60
Balls Caught 31 12
Success Rate 37% 20%
>> Expected out rate: How often balls hit to that area are turned into outs (data through Aug. 28)
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