All Forums > SimLeague Baseball > MLB > Defensive Metrics
9/4/2013 8:16 PM
Posted by bad_luck on 9/4/2013 7:36:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 9/4/2013 2:47:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 9/4/2013 2:24:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 9/4/2013 2:20:00 PM (view original):
Over the last 5 seasons, Everth Cabrera has played over 3100 innings at shortstop. Without looking at any stats, how good is his defense?
I'll be the first to say I don't even know who Everth Cabrera is. 

Therefore, I would not join an "Everth Cabrera sucks/is great at SS" debate.    

That said, I don't think anyone debated Brett Gardner vs. Mike Trout vs. Miguel Cabrera MVP last season.
You're right. So, without using stats, who was more valuable defensively in 2012, Cabrera or Trout?
You never answered this, by the way. Cat got your tongue?
Were you around last season when I posted the following every time rsvp777 said "Cabrera isn't bad at 3B"?




If I had a pic of Trout taking a grounder in the face, I'd post it.     Can you guess what I think?
9/4/2013 8:28 PM
Posted by The Taint on 9/4/2013 6:35:00 PM (view original):
If you're watching the Rangers/A's game right now, you know that if the sun isn't factored into defensive stats in that park, the defensive stats are bullshit. The sun is brutal today and the Rangers have misplayed three fly balls in this inning alone because of it.

.            /)           (\
.   ,.-.,_( (,~-~-~,) )_,.-.,
.     ` -.,,    @ @     ,,.- '
.           / ,-o----o-, \
.          ( ( .,____, ) )
.            ) ` ------- ' (
.           /                  \
Eye like that word 'bullshit',
stinks up the whole planet
& every 1 can smell it from
a mile away... Buncha' Bull.

9/4/2013 8:34 PM
hey. save the keyboard magic tricks for the thread-closing ceremonies tomorrow. will u?
9/4/2013 8:40 PM
Metrics - Shmetrics, Rules - Shmool's... We need
JUGGALO_STEVE, to 'WHIP' this guy into shape...

amen.
9/4/2013 9:33 PM (edited)
still waiting over here, on aisle twelve, for that price-check. anyone else? what will the numbers cost, money-wise? is it a subscription? bi-weekly? comes with a password to the latest numbers from today's ''gamma-ray'' blast, in arlington stadium?

even the_taint might give a few bucks to find out the origins of those 5 errors today. but, probably not. maybe. a guess, but, tell us how much they want for those numbers? do bookies buy them, u think? ooh.
9/4/2013 9:12 PM
because if bookies buy them, then we can afford them, too. give us a number, let us know?
9/4/2013 9:16 PM
Posted by MikeT23 on 9/4/2013 8:16:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 9/4/2013 7:36:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 9/4/2013 2:47:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 9/4/2013 2:24:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 9/4/2013 2:20:00 PM (view original):
Over the last 5 seasons, Everth Cabrera has played over 3100 innings at shortstop. Without looking at any stats, how good is his defense?
I'll be the first to say I don't even know who Everth Cabrera is. 

Therefore, I would not join an "Everth Cabrera sucks/is great at SS" debate.    

That said, I don't think anyone debated Brett Gardner vs. Mike Trout vs. Miguel Cabrera MVP last season.
You're right. So, without using stats, who was more valuable defensively in 2012, Cabrera or Trout?
You never answered this, by the way. Cat got your tongue?
Were you around last season when I posted the following every time rsvp777 said "Cabrera isn't bad at 3B"?




If I had a pic of Trout taking a grounder in the face, I'd post it.     Can you guess what I think?
Which advanced defensive metric best captures this play?
9/4/2013 9:44 PM
yes. which metric? the one measuring an mvp when one is needed? or the one that evaluates and enumerates a single play? or the one that goes forward and predicts what should be expected? or the one that always goes backwards by fifty?

which one captures it best? lets end the mystery and buy the numbers. help please. 
9/4/2013 9:46 PM
is there a disclaimer that u are not disclosing to us?
9/4/2013 9:53 PM
Posted by tecwrg on 9/4/2013 9:16:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 9/4/2013 8:16:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 9/4/2013 7:36:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 9/4/2013 2:47:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 9/4/2013 2:24:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 9/4/2013 2:20:00 PM (view original):
Over the last 5 seasons, Everth Cabrera has played over 3100 innings at shortstop. Without looking at any stats, how good is his defense?
I'll be the first to say I don't even know who Everth Cabrera is. 

Therefore, I would not join an "Everth Cabrera sucks/is great at SS" debate.    

That said, I don't think anyone debated Brett Gardner vs. Mike Trout vs. Miguel Cabrera MVP last season.
You're right. So, without using stats, who was more valuable defensively in 2012, Cabrera or Trout?
You never answered this, by the way. Cat got your tongue?
Were you around last season when I posted the following every time rsvp777 said "Cabrera isn't bad at 3B"?




If I had a pic of Trout taking a grounder in the face, I'd post it.     Can you guess what I think?
Which advanced defensive metric best captures this play?
F.U.C.K.D
9/4/2013 9:54 PM
meanwhile, throw in an order of onion rings to go with that.
9/4/2013 10:51 PM
how long has that "bat" signal been on now? the one for juggalo_steve?
9/4/2013 11:03 PM
With him, they say it's always wardrobe -& costume problems,
& wardrobe problems, too... Should be able 2 handle this, tho.

Like when wardrobes & numbers do not match... They will have
lots in common... The metric doesn't involve a grid, so, it should
not be very much longer...

9/5/2013 12:20 PM
Posted by MikeT23 on 9/4/2013 8:14:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 9/4/2013 7:35:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 9/4/2013 6:55:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 9/4/2013 6:01:00 PM (view original):
Are you asking why sample sizes play a large role in the reliability of a stat?
You know exactly what I'm asking.  Don't play dumb.

Per you:
1)  We need three seasons of fielding data to get a good "feel".
2)  But not with hitters because they get 700 PA while fielders get 150-200 chances.

So, if it's a numbers game, and you're saying it is, do we need three years of fielding data for all positions?    If so, why?   As I recall, some positions get a lot more opportunities to field the ball.    Is it 600 chances?   What's the number?
1) We need roughly three full seasons of UZR to reliably conclude that the number is a good indicator of the player's true talent. That three seasons isn't exact, it's just a guideline. 

2) When Taylor Teagarden posts a 1.200 OPS over 50 plate appearances, do you expect that to continue? Or do you consider it a fluke due to the sample size?

2b) Assuming that you consider it a fluke, would you stop using OPS because it doesn't reliably indicate a player's true talent when the sample size is small?


1)  So now it's "roughly" three seasons?    So maybe it could be two for some guys and four for others?   How do we differentiate who needs how many seasons?

2)  We've agreed, somewhat, that 700 PA can sort of tell us who can knock the **** out of the ball and who can't.   Why are you now using 50?

2b)  Please see 2.
1) I don't see why you need an exact number. For OPS to reflect true talent you need roughly 600 PA (and even then it should be regressed 30% if you have just that 600 PA). Batting average needs over 900 PA (or roughly one and a half years). Everything is roughly. There are no absolutes. And I'm fairly certain that if I tried to tell you there were, you'd **** yourself.

2) If a guy only has 50 or 200 or 400 plate appearances, you wouldn't take his OPS or batting average or whatever offensive stat as his true talent level. You'd regress it to the mean by the appropriate amount because your sample is too small. At 600 plate appearances, OPS is fairly reliable (you'd need to get to over 900 for batting average), but the year to year correlation is still well below 1. To get to a similar correlation with UZR, you need three years of data because defensive opportunities don't happen as often as plate appearances.

Do you really not get it or are you playing dumb?

9/5/2013 12:21 PM
Posted by MikeT23 on 9/4/2013 8:16:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 9/4/2013 7:36:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 9/4/2013 2:47:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 9/4/2013 2:24:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 9/4/2013 2:20:00 PM (view original):
Over the last 5 seasons, Everth Cabrera has played over 3100 innings at shortstop. Without looking at any stats, how good is his defense?
I'll be the first to say I don't even know who Everth Cabrera is. 

Therefore, I would not join an "Everth Cabrera sucks/is great at SS" debate.    

That said, I don't think anyone debated Brett Gardner vs. Mike Trout vs. Miguel Cabrera MVP last season.
You're right. So, without using stats, who was more valuable defensively in 2012, Cabrera or Trout?
You never answered this, by the way. Cat got your tongue?
Were you around last season when I posted the following every time rsvp777 said "Cabrera isn't bad at 3B"?




If I had a pic of Trout taking a grounder in the face, I'd post it.     Can you guess what I think?
So you agree that Mike Trout had more defensive value in 2012.

Good to know.
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