Posted by burnsy483 on 9/5/2013 2:43:00 PM (view original):
Right, except I don't trust the results of UZR, where I do trust things like OBP. OBP tells you how often a player got on base, how well he succeeded at his job of getting on base.
I would love a defensive model that can judge whether or not a player should have gotten an out based on where the fielder is standing. If it can't do that now, then I also have questions about how accurately it judges things like the trajectory and velocity of a ball hit as well. And I don't know if I can trust that stats that say "in this situation, it's an out 55% of the time" if the stat has difficulty with the idea of fielders standing in certain places, and not one universal place as a center fielder.
the bat is the defensive model of defensive metrics. the 0-7's are explained very well thru many pages of this thread.
however, i see your point about on-base percentage. if getting on-base is of importance, then the highest percentage of an event like that is by batting safely. ichiro suzuki bats safely at a higher percentage than the walks that also allow him to get on-base. on the flip side, barry bonds same on-base percentage should reflect that he is on-base more often by walks, instead of batting safely.
the overwhelming cause of the defensive switching, which loaded the first base side of the infield, was not done so to keep barry bonds from walking to first, even though they added extra defense. they actually had barry bonds in a situation where the pitcher was going to walk barry bonds anyways. why the defensive switch even after the decision to walk him, by not giving him anything to hit?
point is, what will the bis data numbers tell everyone here, when applied to defend against a batter, with certain known tendencies, when that batter is preferred to walk in the first place? will the numbers show-up as again meaning defensive metrics must always give us a batter equivalent, basically? basically, as it says on page one of this wonderfully valuable thread, that gives offensive equivalents to defensive metrics?
we already know hgh and stem cells will also be incorporated into your findings, but that is for another thread, once this one closes.
so, tell us what it costs to get the proprietary numbers, and lets party as we close this thread with a climactic finale. i'm game for that.