2015 baseball HOF ballot. Topic

Posted by MikeT23 on 2/11/2014 4:30:00 PM (view original):
If you're too dumb to understand, I believe it.    Look in your stat book and tell me the probabilities of getting a hit after 1-0 pitches and 1-1 pitches. 
Have you looked this up?   I haven't but I have a pretty good idea of how Martinez did once getting a 1-0 count as adverse to "working it" to a 1-1 count. 
2/11/2014 5:04 PM
Posted by burnsy483 on 2/11/2014 4:33:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 2/11/2014 4:30:00 PM (view original):
If you're too dumb to understand, I believe it.    Look in your stat book and tell me the probabilities of getting a hit after 1-0 pitches and 1-1 pitches. 
So probabilities are ok now.

Batters generally get more pitches to hit when they're ahead of the count.  They're fighting pitches off when they're behind in the count.  But maybe he should swing at that borderline 1-0 pitch anyway, because SWING THE BAT RUSS DAVIS SUCKS
It's not probabilities.  We can look up what EM actually did after 1-0 and 1-1.  
2/11/2014 5:05 PM
Posted by MikeT23 on 2/11/2014 5:05:00 PM (view original):
Posted by burnsy483 on 2/11/2014 4:33:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 2/11/2014 4:30:00 PM (view original):
If you're too dumb to understand, I believe it.    Look in your stat book and tell me the probabilities of getting a hit after 1-0 pitches and 1-1 pitches. 
So probabilities are ok now.

Batters generally get more pitches to hit when they're ahead of the count.  They're fighting pitches off when they're behind in the count.  But maybe he should swing at that borderline 1-0 pitch anyway, because SWING THE BAT RUSS DAVIS SUCKS
It's not probabilities.  We can look up what EM actually did after 1-0 and 1-1.  
How do you think they come up with run values?
2/11/2014 5:06 PM
Do you think that Martinez's BA was too low?
2/11/2014 5:07 PM

Who asked about run values?   Tell me his stat line.     Simple AVG/OBP/SLG.     Did EM get better by working that 1-0 to a 1-1?   He may have.   I doubt it but you can look it up and say "SEE??!?!?!?  HE SHOULD HAVE TAKEN THAT STRIKE!!!!"

2/11/2014 5:08 PM
Posted by MikeT23 on 2/11/2014 5:08:00 PM (view original):

Who asked about run values?   Tell me his stat line.     Simple AVG/OBP/SLG.     Did EM get better by working that 1-0 to a 1-1?   He may have.   I doubt it but you can look it up and say "SEE??!?!?!?  HE SHOULD HAVE TAKEN THAT STRIKE!!!!"

You talked about run values here:

Posted by MikeT23 on 2/11/2014 4:06:00 PM (view original):

He's not the only one.  I know burnsy posted "The run probability increases from .273 runs to .324 runs."    I've never seen .324 runs scored in any inning.   Sometimes a better hitter will produce 1 runs while the lesser hitter produces 0 runs.


How do you think they got those?

2/11/2014 5:11 PM
Yes, if the pitcher makes a great pitch at 1-0, the odds of Martinez doing something good at the plate decreases.  That's what happens when pitchers make good pitches.

Tell me about how Edgar Martinez shouldn't be a HOFer partly because he was too patient relative to other elite hitters.  What evidence do you have?
2/11/2014 5:21 PM
Posted by MikeT23 on 2/11/2014 3:50:00 PM (view original):
To summarize:

If EM swung more, he'd have less walks.    We all agree on this, correct?
Some of us believe he'd have had more hits.
Others believe none of those swings would have produced anything but an out.

Some of us believe he took good pitches to hit.
Others believe that every pitch he took was unhittable due to umpires giving "vicinity" strikes or pitchers simply painting the black with cutters/sliders.


Is this about right?
If I had to guess, I'd say that an elite-level hitter like Martinez might have been able to hit close to .200, maybe .220, on the pitches he took.  Elite hitters hit about .175-.190 on pitches outside the strike zone, so you figure he took some hittable pitches, give him a boost on top of that.

So your argument is that it would be better for him to swing at less pitches, take less walks (which happen 100% of the time when you take 4 balls), and get more hits at a 20-22% success rate?

2/11/2014 5:23 PM
In mikes world, trading 1200 walks for 300 hits is a good deal.
2/11/2014 5:28 PM
Posted by bad_luck on 2/11/2014 5:28:00 PM (view original):
In mikes world, trading 1200 walks for 300 hits is a good deal.
Care to quote the post where I said that?     Because I'd LOVE to see it.   Want me to wait here or would you prefer to say "Well, you didn't exactly say that but.........."?
2/11/2014 5:37 PM
Posted by burnsy483 on 2/11/2014 5:21:00 PM (view original):
Yes, if the pitcher makes a great pitch at 1-0, the odds of Martinez doing something good at the plate decreases.  That's what happens when pitchers make good pitches.

Tell me about how Edgar Martinez shouldn't be a HOFer partly because he was too patient relative to other elite hitters.  What evidence do you have?
So you looked it up and EM was a lesser hitter after working that 1-0 count to 1-1?

And is it still your contention that every pitch he took was a "great" pitch?
2/11/2014 5:38 PM
Posted by MikeT23 on 2/11/2014 5:37:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 2/11/2014 5:28:00 PM (view original):
In mikes world, trading 1200 walks for 300 hits is a good deal.
Care to quote the post where I said that?     Because I'd LOVE to see it.   Want me to wait here or would you prefer to say "Well, you didn't exactly say that but.........."?
Oh ok.

So he didn't walk too much???

What exactly are you complaining about? Is his OBP too high?
2/11/2014 5:39 PM
Posted by MikeT23 on 2/11/2014 5:38:00 PM (view original):
Posted by burnsy483 on 2/11/2014 5:21:00 PM (view original):
Yes, if the pitcher makes a great pitch at 1-0, the odds of Martinez doing something good at the plate decreases.  That's what happens when pitchers make good pitches.

Tell me about how Edgar Martinez shouldn't be a HOFer partly because he was too patient relative to other elite hitters.  What evidence do you have?
So you looked it up and EM was a lesser hitter after working that 1-0 count to 1-1?

And is it still your contention that every pitch he took was a "great" pitch?
Yea, the vast majority of pitches he took, I'm assuming were good pitches.  If they were pitches he thought he could hit hard, he would have swung at them.

I'm confused what your point is.

Also, tell me about how Edgar Martinez shouldn't be a HOFer partly because he was too patient relative to other elite hitters.  What evidence do you have?
2/11/2014 5:46 PM
Posted by burnsy483 on 2/11/2014 5:46:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 2/11/2014 5:38:00 PM (view original):
Posted by burnsy483 on 2/11/2014 5:21:00 PM (view original):
Yes, if the pitcher makes a great pitch at 1-0, the odds of Martinez doing something good at the plate decreases.  That's what happens when pitchers make good pitches.

Tell me about how Edgar Martinez shouldn't be a HOFer partly because he was too patient relative to other elite hitters.  What evidence do you have?
So you looked it up and EM was a lesser hitter after working that 1-0 count to 1-1?

And is it still your contention that every pitch he took was a "great" pitch?
Yea, the vast majority of pitches he took, I'm assuming were good pitches.  If they were pitches he thought he could hit hard, he would have swung at them.

I'm confused what your point is.

Also, tell me about how Edgar Martinez shouldn't be a HOFer partly because he was too patient relative to other elite hitters.  What evidence do you have?
What evidence do you have that he would have swung at them?   Aren't you simply making the same assumptions that I am about pitches he took?

I think you're more confused as to what your point is.

The hitters behind EM were not effective.  It's a pretty simple fact that's been discussed ad nauseum in this thread.    If you want to compare every hitter that hit behind a HOFer with a similar walk rate, feel free to list them.   I'd enjoy that discussion but I'm not putting in the work. 
2/11/2014 5:51 PM
Posted by bad_luck on 2/11/2014 5:11:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 2/11/2014 5:08:00 PM (view original):

Who asked about run values?   Tell me his stat line.     Simple AVG/OBP/SLG.     Did EM get better by working that 1-0 to a 1-1?   He may have.   I doubt it but you can look it up and say "SEE??!?!?!?  HE SHOULD HAVE TAKEN THAT STRIKE!!!!"

You talked about run values here:

Posted by MikeT23 on 2/11/2014 4:06:00 PM (view original):

He's not the only one.  I know burnsy posted "The run probability increases from .273 runs to .324 runs."    I've never seen .324 runs scored in any inning.   Sometimes a better hitter will produce 1 runs while the lesser hitter produces 0 runs.


How do you think they got those?

Oh, NOW you want to talk about that?

Are the probabilities constant for all players?  If the expected runs for a given state (outs and men on base) is .324 runs, does it matter if Edgar Martinez or Mario Mendoza is batting?
2/11/2014 5:53 PM
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