I meant to point that out for you. You have them in the playoffs. Not winning.
AL East was, at least for me, by far the hardest division to project. Every other division has at least one pretty bad team you can almost put in pen for at best a losing record, at worst an ugly one. And most have a team you feel is more likely than not to make the postseason, at least. In the AL East I can see any team finishing in any spot, with the lone exception being that I have a hard time seeing the Rays finishing worse than 3rd. That said, although I put them in a wildcard spot in my projected standings, I would actually give them a lower chance of making the postseason, certainly of winning the division, than Boston, NY, or Baltimore. They feel more consistent, easier to trust. But they don't have a huge, brilliant upside the way the other clubs in the division seem to.
Baltimore - if Gausman comes up at some point and pitches like he's capable of, Tillman pitches well, Ubaldo throws strikes, they could be a great team. OTOH, if Chris Davis keeps hitting like he hit for the last month and a half of the season, Machado takes a while to get comfortable again, and Ubaldo blows up, they could easily end up below .500.
NY - If Pineda stays healthy, Jeter bounces back a bit, and their other old guys (Beltran, Soriano) keep on rolling, they could be a World Series contender again. They have seemed about a year away from collapse for 2 or 3 seasons now, and it could happen this year. I honestly don't know what to expect from any of their starting pitchers, and if a couple of those old guys break down...
Last year, most people had Toronto winning the division and the Red Sox coming in last. The opposite happened, and now most people seem to have each repeating. I highly doubt that both of those things happen, if either. Both of these teams have similar personnel to last year. So who knows.