Posted by burnsy483 on 9/30/2014 1:02:00 PM (view original):
They wouldn't be.  But did Ichrio get $6.5M because it's the Yankees? Or did they think another team might be offering $6M? 

I'd say it was because it's the Yankees.  They were flinging money around like they had a tree full of it.   Did you hear of anyone else negotiating with Ichiro?

Posted by MikeT23 on 9/30/2014 1:06:00 PM (view original):
OK, since no one else would do the work, 64 players made 15m or more last season.  230 made 6m or more.  1456 made BL money.

In fairness, I'd say there were less than 1000 "legit" BL players.   

So around 7% were in that magical 15m that A-Rod would make with bonuses and the like and less than 1/4 made that "not that much in today's market" 6m.   Do we really think ARod will fall into the top 25% with all things considered?  

Most big league players don't get paid market value, so top 25% doesn't matter.

Here's a list of one year contracts given out before the 2014 season, $4m and up:

Hiroki Kuroda	SP	Signed	NYY	NYY	1	$16,000,000	Dec 7
A.J. Burnett	SP	Signed	PIT	PHI	1	$16,000,000	Feb 12
Ervin Santana	SP	Signed	KC	ATL	1	$14,100,000	Mar 12
Stephen Drew	2B	Signed	BOS	BOS	1	$10,093,443	May 20
Dan Haren	SP	Signed	WAS	LAD	1	$10,000,000	Nov 25
Johan Santana	SP	Signed	NYM	BAL	1	$8,050,000	Mar 4
Josh Johnson	SP	Signed	TOR	SD	1	$8,000,000	Nov 19
Nelson Cruz	RF	Signed	TEX	BAL	1	$8,000,000	Feb 22
Kendrys Morales	DH	Signed	SEA	MIN	1	$7,540,983	Jun 7
Mike Morse	LF	Signed	BAL	SF	1	$6,000,000	Dec 12
Corey Hart	RF	Signed	MIL	SEA	1	$6,000,000	Dec 11
Jason Hammel	SP	Signed	BAL	CHC	1	$6,000,000	Feb 1
Mark Ellis	2B	Signed	LAD	STL	1	$5,250,000	Dec 15
Ryan Vogelsong	SP	Signed	SF	SF	1	$5,000,000	Nov 29
Edinson Volquez	SP	Signed	LAD	PIT	1	$5,000,000	Dec 11
Roberto Hernandez	SP	Signed	TAM	PHI	1	$4,500,000	Dec 12
John Axford	RP	Signed	STL	CLE	1	$4,500,000	Dec 16
Bruce Chen	RP	Signed	KC	KC	1	$4,250,000	Jan 30
Bruce Chen	RP	Signed	KC	KC	1	$4,250,000	Jan 30
Scott Downs	RP	Signed	ATL	CWS	1	$4,000,000	Dec 19
Gavin Floyd	SP	Signed	CWS	ATL	1	$4,000,000	Dec 16

Morales contract was actually $12 million per, prorated. Drew was $14m prorated.

Posted by MikeT23 on 9/30/2014 1:06:00 PM (view original):
OK, since no one else would do the work, 64 players made 15m or more last season.  230 made 6m or more.  1456 made BL money.

In fairness, I'd say there were less than 1000 "legit" BL players.   

So around 7% were in that magical 15m that A-Rod would make with bonuses and the like and less than 1/4 made that "not that much in today's market" 6m.   Do we really think ARod will fall into the top 25% with all things considered?  

You have to look at the guys after arbitration, not all of the players, to do this accurately. 

Here are the 2 year deals, $4m per and above:

Mike Napoli	1B	Signed	BOS	BOS	2	$32,000,000	Dec 7
Bronson Arroyo	SP	Signed	CIN	ARI	2	$23,500,000	Feb 7
Tim Hudson	SP	Signed	ATL	SF	2	$23,000,000	Nov 18
Scott Kazmir	SP	Signed	CLE	OAK	2	$22,000,000	Dec 2
Joe Nathan	CL	Signed	TEX	DET	2	$20,000,000	Dec 3
Bartolo Colon	SP	Signed	OAK	NYM	2	$20,000,000	Dec 11
Brian Wilson	RP	Signed	LAD	LAD	2	$19,000,000	Dec 6
Marlon Byrd	RF	Signed	PIT	PHI	2	$16,000,000	Nov 12
Joaquin Benoit	CL	Signed	DET	SD	2	$15,500,000	Dec 18
Juan Uribe	3B	Signed	LAD	LAD	2	$15,000,000	Dec 15
Fernando Rodney	CL	Signed	TAM	SEA	2	$14,000,000	Feb 6
Justin Morneau	1B	Signed	PIT	COL	2	$12,500,000	Dec 3
David Murphy	RF	Signed	TEX	CLE	2	$12,000,000	Nov 19
Grant Balfour	RP	Signed	BAL	TAM	2	$12,000,000	Jan 23
J.P. Howell	RP	Signed	LAD	LAD	2	$11,250,000	Dec 17
Mike Pelfrey	SP	Signed	MIN	MIN	2	$11,000,000	Dec 16
Nate McLouth	LF	Signed	BAL	WAS	2	$10,750,000	Dec 7
Brad Ziegler	RP	Signed	ARI	ARI	2	$10,500,000	Dec 21
Rajai Davis	LF	Signed	TOR	DET	2	$10,000,000	Dec 11
Edward Mujica	RP	Signed	STL	BOS	2	$9,500,000	Dec 5
Dioner Navarro	C	Signed	CHC	TOR	2	$8,000,000	Dec 2

******* Nate Mclouth got two years $5m+ per year. Arod easily gets $6m, probably more.

Mclouth's OPS+ over the 1500 PAs prior to signing the deal: 89.

Posted by burnsy483 on 9/30/2014 1:21:00 PM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 9/30/2014 1:06:00 PM (view original):
OK, since no one else would do the work, 64 players made 15m or more last season.  230 made 6m or more.  1456 made BL money.

In fairness, I'd say there were less than 1000 "legit" BL players.   

So around 7% were in that magical 15m that A-Rod would make with bonuses and the like and less than 1/4 made that "not that much in today's market" 6m.   Do we really think ARod will fall into the top 25% with all things considered?  

You have to look at the guys after arbitration, not all of the players, to do this accurately. 

I'm not so sure you do.   It's always a plus/minus game.   Do I play this 25 y/o arb-el guy that I'll get for 2.3m who will OPS around .700 or do I sign the 40 y/o 6m guy who might have a great year or could completely stink it up after being off for effectively 2 years?  Unless, of course, you think every roster decision is made based solely on talent.   And I don't think you think that.

Sure, some teams will choose the guy they have, others will choose the guy with more risk/reward.  

If we're looking at everyone, then yes, I would guess he would fall in the top 25%, considering many, many, many players make a minimum salary.  Compared to others who make $6M a year, A-Rod seems like a good value.

Obviously, it's all speculation, there's no way to prove this. 

My guess for what A-Rod actually does next year - 400 PAs, .260/.340/.440.  16 homers.

If you remove the noise.    I'm not sure who does that.

Have you come up with a list of teams that could do that?   And would pay between 6-15m for him?   And who need a 3B?   I added "a contender" because I don't think there's any way a team brings in ARod if they don't think they can win but maybe you don't think it's a requirement. 

I honestly don't think there would be any market for ARod.   None.  

Of course, an injury in ST or early season could change things but I don't think there's a team out there thinking "You know what would put us over the top?  ARod!"

I honestly don't think there would be any market for ARod.   None.  

Of course, an injury in ST or early season could change things but I don't think there's a team out there thinking "You know what would put us over the top?  ARod!"

Posted by MikeT23 on 9/30/2014 2:57:00 PM (view original):

Posted by burnsy483 on 9/30/2014 1:21:00 PM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 9/30/2014 1:06:00 PM (view original):
OK, since no one else would do the work, 64 players made 15m or more last season.  230 made 6m or more.  1456 made BL money.

In fairness, I'd say there were less than 1000 "legit" BL players.   

So around 7% were in that magical 15m that A-Rod would make with bonuses and the like and less than 1/4 made that "not that much in today's market" 6m.   Do we really think ARod will fall into the top 25% with all things considered?  

You have to look at the guys after arbitration, not all of the players, to do this accurately. 

I'm not so sure you do.   It's always a plus/minus game.   Do I play this 25 y/o arb-el guy that I'll get for 2.3m who will OPS around .700 or do I sign the 40 y/o 6m guy who might have a great year or could completely stink it up after being off for effectively 2 years?  Unless, of course, you think every roster decision is made based solely on talent.   And I don't think you think that.

You don't include players before free agency because their salaries are restricted. It's not unusual for a great player to be paid significantly less than a bad free agent.

It doesn't matter what percentage of all players make more than $6m. All that matters is number and quality of the free agents making more than that.

I'll give you this. It's one thing to say "duh, of course a team will offer him a contract" but it's another to find those teams.  And it's harder than I anticipated.  Ironically, the Yankees are a good fit, but they would say no if he was an FA.

Angels - They have Freese for a 3rd year of arbitration, but he's been disappointing, and it's not clear how long they'd want him.  But I imagine they'd prefer another year of Freese at $8M or whatever he'll get than Alex.  Freese doesn't play another position, and Pujols and Cron have 1B and DH locked up.  I'm just listing the Angels because I think they'd be the most likely of anyone in the AL, which is very surprising to me.

Marlins - Took a step forward this year, legitimately need a 3B.  You could say Alex is familiar with Miami.  This would be my guess on where he'd go. Seems obvious.

Brewers - Aramis Ramirez is a FA (essentially - mutual option)...you'd be able to get ARod for cheaper than him, and having Braun on the team might make the situation easier for him? Fans have forgiven Braun it seems, he could help the Alex situation.

Giants - Sandoval wants a $100M deal, rumors seem to suggest he won't be signing that with Giants. A-Rod is a cheaper option, fans are steroid-friendly, obviously.

I would guess a couple of these teams would dabble.