ARod's Value on the Open Market Topic

Posted by burnsy483 on 9/30/2014 3:50:00 PM (view original):
I'll give you this. It's one thing to say "duh, of course a team will offer him a contract" but it's another to find those teams.  And it's harder than I anticipated.  Ironically, the Yankees are a good fit, but they would say no if he was an FA.

Angels - They have Freese for a 3rd year of arbitration, but he's been disappointing, and it's not clear how long they'd want him.  But I imagine they'd prefer another year of Freese at $8M or whatever he'll get than Alex.  Freese doesn't play another position, and Pujols and Cron have 1B and DH locked up.  I'm just listing the Angels because I think they'd be the most likely of anyone in the AL, which is very surprising to me.

Marlins - Took a step forward this year, legitimately need a 3B.  You could say Alex is familiar with Miami.  This would be my guess on where he'd go. Seems obvious.

Brewers - Aramis Ramirez is a FA (essentially - mutual option)...you'd be able to get ARod for cheaper than him, and having Braun on the team might make the situation easier for him? Fans have forgiven Braun it seems, he could help the Alex situation.

Giants - Sandoval wants a $100M deal, rumors seem to suggest he won't be signing that with Giants. A-Rod is a cheaper option, fans are steroid-friendly, obviously.

I would guess a couple of these teams would dabble.
I like what you did there.

Angels are one team I considered.  They don't mind throwing money at problems and, obviously with Hamilton and the 10y deal for an aging Pujols, they're willing to gamble for a shot at glory.

I disregarded the Marlins, it's not their cycle. 

I like the steroid-friendly fanbase of MIL/SF but I'm not sure that's a factor.

Atlanta.   Johnson sucks and he's 30.   I don't know the salary situation of ATL but I doubt they're overburden with big contracts unless they're still paying Uggla.   But I don't know if the backlash of ARod would be worth it to them.   That said, they seem to have a lot of empty seats.   Filling them with people hating on ARod might not be the worst thing.

9/30/2014 4:03 PM
The Yankees really are the best fit. 
If the Dodgers assume that Turners 2014 was a fluke, they'd probably be interested on a short term deal.
The Braves could use an upgrade over Johnson.
The Red Sox should be playing Bogaerts at SS in 2015, they could use him.
The Indians, if they decide Chisenhall isn't the solution at 3B.
The Tigers if they don't resign Martinez. Arod could join the DH/3B/1B rotation with Cabrera and Castellanos.
The Royals if they finally kick Moustakas to the curb.
The Blue Jays are also a fit.

Of that group, I'd say the Braves and Blue Jays would be the most likely in the non-Yankee hypothetical, assuming both still want to try to contend and not rebuild.



9/30/2014 4:05 PM
Posted by bad_luck on 9/30/2014 4:05:00 PM (view original):
The Yankees really are the best fit. 
If the Dodgers assume that Turners 2014 was a fluke, they'd probably be interested on a short term deal.
The Braves could use an upgrade over Johnson.
The Red Sox should be playing Bogaerts at SS in 2015, they could use him.
The Indians, if they decide Chisenhall isn't the solution at 3B.
The Tigers if they don't resign Martinez. Arod could join the DH/3B/1B rotation with Cabrera and Castellanos.
The Royals if they finally kick Moustakas to the curb.
The Blue Jays are also a fit.

Of that group, I'd say the Braves and Blue Jays would be the most likely in the non-Yankee hypothetical, assuming both still want to try to contend and not rebuild.



Reasons I didn't take those teams:

Yankees for obvious reasons, won't bring him back.  They'd like to move on.
Dodgers have Uribe for one more year, and he's played well the last 2 years. A-Rod is likely not an upgrade.
Braves have signed Johnson long-term.
Red Sox doesn't "feel" like a good fit. I know there's room there, but A) Are the Red Sox contending and B) He seems like he'd be a bigger distraction there than anywhere. C) A-Rod didn't love NY pressure, now he has a different pressure that's arguably more intense. I don't think fans would take to him well.
Indians would probably prefer Chisenhall. He's cheaper and will likely put up similar numbers to A-Rod.
Tigers will have to go with Castellanos. I don't think a team signs A-Rod as a full-time DH.
Royals keep Moustakas. I don't see KC dabbling in this mess. Seems very un-KC-like to get involved with any kind of drama at all.
Blue Jays aren't going to give up on Lawrie just to bring in A-Rod.

EDIT: I've forgotten that Lawrie can play 2B. I could see Toronto as a fit. Although I'm not sure A-Rod would play on artificial turf full-time, given a choice.

9/30/2014 4:22 PM (edited)
The only way he gets a contract at $6M+ is if he plays in Japan. And he might not even get that...

nbakki.hatenablog.com/entry/2014/03/06/222619
9/30/2014 4:20 PM
Posted by MikeT23 on 9/30/2014 4:03:00 PM (view original):
Posted by burnsy483 on 9/30/2014 3:50:00 PM (view original):
I'll give you this. It's one thing to say "duh, of course a team will offer him a contract" but it's another to find those teams.  And it's harder than I anticipated.  Ironically, the Yankees are a good fit, but they would say no if he was an FA.

Angels - They have Freese for a 3rd year of arbitration, but he's been disappointing, and it's not clear how long they'd want him.  But I imagine they'd prefer another year of Freese at $8M or whatever he'll get than Alex.  Freese doesn't play another position, and Pujols and Cron have 1B and DH locked up.  I'm just listing the Angels because I think they'd be the most likely of anyone in the AL, which is very surprising to me.

Marlins - Took a step forward this year, legitimately need a 3B.  You could say Alex is familiar with Miami.  This would be my guess on where he'd go. Seems obvious.

Brewers - Aramis Ramirez is a FA (essentially - mutual option)...you'd be able to get ARod for cheaper than him, and having Braun on the team might make the situation easier for him? Fans have forgiven Braun it seems, he could help the Alex situation.

Giants - Sandoval wants a $100M deal, rumors seem to suggest he won't be signing that with Giants. A-Rod is a cheaper option, fans are steroid-friendly, obviously.

I would guess a couple of these teams would dabble.
I like what you did there.

Angels are one team I considered.  They don't mind throwing money at problems and, obviously with Hamilton and the 10y deal for an aging Pujols, they're willing to gamble for a shot at glory.

I disregarded the Marlins, it's not their cycle. 

I like the steroid-friendly fanbase of MIL/SF but I'm not sure that's a factor.

Atlanta.   Johnson sucks and he's 30.   I don't know the salary situation of ATL but I doubt they're overburden with big contracts unless they're still paying Uggla.   But I don't know if the backlash of ARod would be worth it to them.   That said, they seem to have a lot of empty seats.   Filling them with people hating on ARod might not be the worst thing.

Missed this here. I know Johnson sucks, but he's signed long-term.  They'd have to move him.
9/30/2014 4:26 PM
Posted by stinenavy on 9/30/2014 4:20:00 PM (view original):
The only way he gets a contract at $6M+ is if he plays in Japan. And he might not even get that...

nbakki.hatenablog.com/entry/2014/03/06/222619
Nate Mclouth got 2 years at $5m+ a year here. Nate ******* Mclouth.
9/30/2014 4:26 PM
He was ok in 2013, so the contract didn't seem ridiculous at the time. Good defensive corner OF, steals bases. Wasn't horrible with the bat at the time. The second year is tough.
9/30/2014 4:32 PM
I wouldn't put it past KC to sign him, they traded Myers away for Shields. Moustakas has been horrible. So bad that replacing him has to be at the top of the list going into next season.
9/30/2014 4:38 PM
Posted by burnsy483 on 9/30/2014 4:32:00 PM (view original):
He was ok in 2013, so the contract didn't seem ridiculous at the time. Good defensive corner OF, steals bases. Wasn't horrible with the bat at the time. The second year is tough.
It's not ridiculous, that's the point. Arod gets >$6m easy.
9/30/2014 4:39 PM
Posted by burnsy483 on 9/30/2014 4:26:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 9/30/2014 4:03:00 PM (view original):
Posted by burnsy483 on 9/30/2014 3:50:00 PM (view original):
I'll give you this. It's one thing to say "duh, of course a team will offer him a contract" but it's another to find those teams.  And it's harder than I anticipated.  Ironically, the Yankees are a good fit, but they would say no if he was an FA.

Angels - They have Freese for a 3rd year of arbitration, but he's been disappointing, and it's not clear how long they'd want him.  But I imagine they'd prefer another year of Freese at $8M or whatever he'll get than Alex.  Freese doesn't play another position, and Pujols and Cron have 1B and DH locked up.  I'm just listing the Angels because I think they'd be the most likely of anyone in the AL, which is very surprising to me.

Marlins - Took a step forward this year, legitimately need a 3B.  You could say Alex is familiar with Miami.  This would be my guess on where he'd go. Seems obvious.

Brewers - Aramis Ramirez is a FA (essentially - mutual option)...you'd be able to get ARod for cheaper than him, and having Braun on the team might make the situation easier for him? Fans have forgiven Braun it seems, he could help the Alex situation.

Giants - Sandoval wants a $100M deal, rumors seem to suggest he won't be signing that with Giants. A-Rod is a cheaper option, fans are steroid-friendly, obviously.

I would guess a couple of these teams would dabble.
I like what you did there.

Angels are one team I considered.  They don't mind throwing money at problems and, obviously with Hamilton and the 10y deal for an aging Pujols, they're willing to gamble for a shot at glory.

I disregarded the Marlins, it's not their cycle. 

I like the steroid-friendly fanbase of MIL/SF but I'm not sure that's a factor.

Atlanta.   Johnson sucks and he's 30.   I don't know the salary situation of ATL but I doubt they're overburden with big contracts unless they're still paying Uggla.   But I don't know if the backlash of ARod would be worth it to them.   That said, they seem to have a lot of empty seats.   Filling them with people hating on ARod might not be the worst thing.

Missed this here. I know Johnson sucks, but he's signed long-term.  They'd have to move him.
Then I guess it's the Angels.    And they have Freese. 

Looks like we're back to nobody. 
9/30/2014 5:03 PM
And the Braves, Royals, Giants, Blue Jays, Brewers, and Red Sox.


9/30/2014 5:13 PM
I really don't think the Royals or Jays would be interested in A-Rod.  Or the Red Sox.  None of those feel like fits to me.

Giants and Brewers both feel like very strong options to me.  If the Giants don't win again this year they will be under pressure to do something, the fan base in SF has gotten very championship-or-bust in terms of mentality.  Just to appease the base, you almost have to do something that feels like a calculated risk if you don't want to lay down the money for a big FA signing, and they already have a lot of salary on the books.  If Panda walks, A-Rod would be a better fit than any other FA I see.  Brewers will be looking for their next 3B if Aramis doesn't stay, and I feel like A-Rod is a fit there too.

I can see the Braves to a lesser extent, but right now they're generally pretty young and I think they're ready to move forward with "their guys."  That would mean giving Johnson another chance.  After all, he was a lot better last year and in a small number of PAs in 2012.

The other two teams I could really see factoring in this offseason would be the Twins and the A's.  A's could use help at 1B/DH, and they've always been comfortable moving guys around defensively.  Twins could use a better full-time DH, too, but they might pull up short even before the salary talk got to $6 million given the current state of the team.  But the A's are definitely willing to give older guys a shot; Frank Thomas revitalized his career here, Manny got his last MLB contract in Oakland.  As much as the A's fans have fallen in love with Stephen Vogt last year, 29-year-old rookies with .833 career minor league OPS are not strong bets to carve out long Major League careers with their bats, and BB knows that.  And they certainly don't want to move forward with Callaspo's bat playing a major role in the DH picture.  As strong as the pitching will remain in Oakland after Lester walks, they know they need to do something to replace the thunder they took out of the lineup when they traded away Cespedes.  The dude was only hitting .256/.303/.464, but the power threat was there, and it picked up the rest of the lineup.  A-Rod could still be perceived as a similar guy - he's always swung hard, and he can really embarrass pitchers when they make a mistake, even as he moves into his 40s.  At least I think we all believe that to be true.  If A-Rod were a FA, and I had to bet on where he'd end up, Oakland would be where I'd put my money.
9/30/2014 6:50 PM
I didn't even consider Oakland, I thought of Donaldson and immediately moved on. But those are good points and I think the general argument holds up, someone would sign him.
9/30/2014 7:29 PM
I'm with Mike.  ARod goes unsigned.

You keep insisting that he has a certain level of performance value that he can offer.  I think you are overestimating what that value actually will be.

You also keep insisting that teams will ignore the baggage that comes along with ARod, that what he can offer on the field trumps the baggage.  While that may be true for many/most players, I think ARod is the exception.  His story is so much of an outlier, such as Bonds was, that he's on the outside looking in.
9/30/2014 9:32 PM
I don't think his story is worse than Manny's. And I think Bonds would have signed absent collusion.
9/30/2014 9:34 PM
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ARod's Value on the Open Market Topic

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