Posted by ncmusician_7 on 11/23/2015 10:00:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 11/23/2015 9:54:00 PM (view original):
Posted by ncmusician_7 on 11/23/2015 9:22:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 11/23/2015 6:59:00 PM (view original):
What do you not like about the calculation?
That oWar+dWar doesn't equal War, the positional adjustments for dWar, etc
oWAR plus dWAR isn't supposed to equal WAR. oWAR stills gives defensive credit.
That is part of the issue I have with the calculations. Offense should be separate from defense. Basketball separates offensive win shares from defensive win shares (for example).
I don't think that's a fair comparison. In effect, basketball doesn't require you to play the same position on offense and defense; that is, your PG doesn't necessarily have to guard the other team's PG if your team's 2-guard, or in a few cases even your SF, happens to be a better on-ball defender. Moreover, you can move your best defenders around to play your opponent's most dangerous scorers so long as there isn't a substantial size mismatch. You almost have to ignore offensive position in calculating defensive value, and vice versa, because in effect many guys are not playing the same position. In baseball, you play where you play. There is added offensive value to a guy who can play a premium defensive position and still hit. The fact that you DON'T just add oWAR and dWAR to get WAR compensates back to avoid actually giving a guy double credit for playing SS.
You also have to keep in mind that WAR is wins above replacement, so if you're comparing between positions, you can and should expect replacement-level to look different. You want oWAR not to consider position. But do you really believe that if you take Jeter off SS and make him a LF he still carries the same offensive value, relative to a replacement-level player? You think the average organization's next man up at SS and COF are going to hit the same? Move Yadier Molina or Matt Wieters to 1B. How's his bat look now? But how does it play as a catcher? Position absolutely factors into a player's offensive value. That doesn't mean you bat the guy at a different spot in the lineup. But a C, or a SS, or even a 2B who can slug .500+ is a pretty rare thing these days. In fact, last year, of the 20 guys who did slug .500, exactly zero played at any of those 3 positions. In fact, the highest SLG coming from C, SS, or 2B belonged to Buster Posey at .470, 38th best in baseball. Would the 38th-best slugger in the game be a special player if he were a RF? He'd be good. Would he be perceived as the kind of star that Posey is? Would he be as valuable?