Posted by MikeT23 on 10/27/2016 1:09:00 PM (view original):
Sez the Argue Monkey.

You may call me that, but I haven't spent the morning trying to skullfuck jtpsops over his phrasing when I, in general, agree with his point.

You are one bitter and insufferable dude. No wonder your wife left you.

Posted by Jtpsops on 10/25/2016 10:24:00 PM (view original):
I didn't say anything stupid. Part of the post turned out to factually wrong, but that didn't impact my point in any way. It was and remains a horrible contract, only ever met with applause from the advanced metrics crowd because Heyward is "the greatest defensive RF of all time!!"

If I recall correctly, dahs mocked me for daring to compare Heyward to Alex Gordon. Seems like a pretty fair comparison. Might even be an insult to Gordon now.

I'm pretty sure you don't recall correctly. Going into last offseason I'm fairly certain I rated Heyward as the 3rd-most-valuable COF in baseball, and Gordon as 4th. So that's about as close as it can get. Obviously neither guy came close to living up to that standard this year. But based on the preceding 4 or 5 seasons, I still believe that was a reasonably fair valuation of these guys. Going forward I'd think you'd actually have to drop Gordon a lot further than Heyward. Neither of them hit this year, but Heyward still played elite defense. Gordon hasn't played particularly impressive defense in either of the past 2 seasons, and it's looking more like it wasn't just an anomaly and age and injuries really have caught up to him in the field. That hurts his upside going forward.

Mike already made my primary point for me earlier in the thread. One of the things that made Heyward so attractive going into the offseason was his age. Most guys enter free agency at the back end of their traditional prime - that is, somewhere around age 30. Heyward hit free agency before his age 26 season, before even the beginning of his traditional prime years. Consider that Heyward, at the end of his 8-year deal, will be the same age as Chris Davis will be at the mid-point of his 7-year deal. Looking through the lens of last offseason, would you prefer Davis, the guy who showed as a great power bat with a solid glove, to Heyward, who showed as a great fielder with a solid bat? For 2016, probably so. But over the life of the contract? I'd have wanted Heyward. And it's for precisely this reason. If Davis starts out with a mediocre season - which he did - it really hurts his potential to live up to the contract. Based on the standard career progression for big power hitters outside the steroid era, odds are the last 3 seasons of that contract are basically throw aways. He needs to produce the value to live up to that contract in probably 4 of the seven years, and now almost all of it in 3. That's a tall order. Because of Heyward's age, he still has 7 potentially very useful years. 87.5% of his contract is left for him to make up for this season, and none of them are years in which he couldn't be expected to play up to his potential.

Note, I'm not arguing that Heyward will rebound. But he certainly has the potential to do so. This is where one of his most desirable attributes a year ago starts to come into play, and I don't think it's fair to decisively call his contract a bust (or "******," in JTP parlance) already. Also, you can't totally downplay the impact of his defense. The Cubs as a team played great defense, and he contributed to that. I think most of you know that I don't buy into FIP on an individual basis, but when you have an entire pitching staff beat their FIP by 0.62 runs/game I think that says something. Especially when you consider that of their 4 veteran starters, 3 of them (Arrieta, Lackey, and Lester) have generally had their ERAs match their FIP on a career basis, and the 4th (Hammel) has traditionally performed worse than FIP would suggest. Basically, the Cubs defense saved their team over half a run a game. And Heyward was the best fielder on that team. Also, after next year, it seems that there is a fairly good chance he could be tested out more regularly in center field. Dewees is probably the closest CF prospect for the Cubs, and I don't think Cubs fans are getting particularly excited for his arrival. If Heyward holds his own in CF - he certainly did this year in limited opportunities - it limits the amount by which his bat needs to rebound in order to be a useful player.

Also, how has nobody pointed out the irony of tec showing up in this thread exclusively to call BL an argue monkey yet?

Posted by MikeT23 on 10/27/2016 1:38:00 PM (view original):
Well, that was over 20 years ago so I doubt I was bitter and insufferable then. It was probably something else. I might have even initiated the divorce.


Either way, the idiocy you've displayed in this thread alone is enough to convince me that A) you did **** your pants in the 3rd grade and B) there's about zero chance you ever get laid because women put up with a lot but stupid isn't one of them.

Your trolling has gone downhill fast the last couple years. Personal problems or just old age?

I like to think it's a little of both. Some is just natural ability, but I do put work into it. Thanks for noticing.

Nah, I can opt out whenever I want.

You, on the other hand, are an insufferable douchebag for life. Sorry pal.

Posted by MikeT23 on 10/27/2016 1:58:00 PM (view original):
I don't think you can. You've been around for years and have earned your status.

As have you. It's cute how oblivious you are to your reputation around here. Especially when you are so dependent on this site to feed your ego.

Posted by bad_luck on 10/27/2016 11:45:00 AM (view original):
Haha, you guys are both stupid.

A signing can be bad, regardless of team success. I'm sure the Cubs are both a) stoked to be in the WS and b) wishing they had used that money differently.

But, jtpsops, you act like everyone should have seen this Heyward collapse coming. Up until this year he was a great defensive outfielder with a slightly above average bat (117 OPS+ in 2016) and was a free agent heading into his age 26 year. He even received MVP votes last year. That's the profile of a player that is worth an investment. It just didn't work out this time (at least not yet).

EDIT: Though I would not have offered him $200m+.

I know I'm behind, mostly because this argument turned into something really idiotic. But yes, I saw this coming, anyone that isn't a Cubs fan saw this coming, and Theo shoulda saw this coming.

Theo doesn't need to see any failure coming. It's the same situation he had in Boston. An absolutely desperate franchise willing to throw whatever money it needs to for victory. Get a few things right, get lucky with a few others and nobody cares a whip about the things that were complete busts.

Posted by d_rock97 on 10/27/2016 2:13:00 PM (view original):

Posted by bad_luck on 10/27/2016 11:45:00 AM (view original):
Haha, you guys are both stupid.

A signing can be bad, regardless of team success. I'm sure the Cubs are both a) stoked to be in the WS and b) wishing they had used that money differently.

But, jtpsops, you act like everyone should have seen this Heyward collapse coming. Up until this year he was a great defensive outfielder with a slightly above average bat (117 OPS+ in 2016) and was a free agent heading into his age 26 year. He even received MVP votes last year. That's the profile of a player that is worth an investment. It just didn't work out this time (at least not yet).

EDIT: Though I would not have offered him $200m+.

I know I'm behind, mostly because this argument turned into something really idiotic. But yes, I saw this coming, anyone that isn't a Cubs fan saw this coming, and Theo shoulda saw this coming.

Really? Based on what? Heyward was a 26 year old free agent with a career 114 OPS+. That's not exactly Hall of Fame level, but there are only 60 players in the history of baseball who OPS+ at least 114 with over 3000 PA at age 25.

There was no reason to believe his triple slash would go from:

293/359/439

to

230/306/325

Posted by Jtpsops on 10/27/2016 2:02:00 PM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 10/27/2016 1:58:00 PM (view original):
I don't think you can. You've been around for years and have earned your status.

As have you. It's cute how oblivious you are to your reputation around here. Especially when you are so dependent on this site to feed your ego.

I created my reputation around here. It's a simsports website. Why the **** would I care what a bunch of nerds think?

Posted by MikeT23 on 10/27/2016 2:23:00 PM (view original):

Posted by Jtpsops on 10/27/2016 2:02:00 PM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 10/27/2016 1:58:00 PM (view original):
I don't think you can. You've been around for years and have earned your status.

As have you. It's cute how oblivious you are to your reputation around here. Especially when you are so dependent on this site to feed your ego.

I created my reputation around here. It's a simsports website. Why the **** would I care what a bunch of nerds think?

That's a question we all ask about you. Only you know the answer.

But it's clear to all that you care A LOT about your internet reputation.

Heyward... he's no Jeffrey Hammonds.

Seems to me that a statnerd would have mentioned BABIP. His walk rate and K rate were down. But his BABIP was down 36 pts from career average. So he put more balls in play and got less hits. I don't it's common for that to happen to a player and stay that way for the next 7 years. In Wrigley. So, if you saw it coming, you're a goddam genius. Any MLB team would be happy to pay you millions to get them that infor before doling out a big contract.