Mike... Rex Ryan guaranteeing Super Bowls could be backed up with actually APPEARING in a Super Bowl. Getting there means taking chances, and acquiring talent that is capable of taking you to the Super Bowl.
Da'Quon Bowers won the Bronko Nagurski Award as the best defensive player in the NCAA for the 2010 season, right before his draft in April 2011. While this is not a foolproof measure of success in the NFL.... past winners of the award (that was started in 1993) include Warren Sapp, Charles Woodson, Champ Bailey, Roy Williams, Terrell Suggs, Derrick Johnson, Elvis Dumerville, James Laurinaitis, Glenn Dorsey, Brian Orakpo & Ndomukong Suh before Bowers won it. Of course, Derrick Strait who won the award was never more than a backup for the NY Jets when they drafted him.... but the vast majority of this award's winners have gone onto NFL success. It would not have been considered a "stretch" to take him with the 30th overall pick in the draft. If they took him with a top 5 or 10 pick... that would be a mistake... but to take him with a 30th overall pick would have been a steal, because without the injury, he would have been a top 5 selection FOR SURE.