All Forums > SimLeague Football > NFL > NFL Survivor- still undefeated- playoff time!
1/6/2013 11:15 PM
Posted by ncmusician_7 on 1/6/2013 6:19:00 PM (view original):
Posted by Jtpsops on 1/6/2013 12:47:00 AM (view original):
Anything is possible, but I don't see how GB goes into SF and wins. If they were playing ATL, maybe.

If Houston plays like they did today, they'll give NE a much tougher test than in their last matchup. Good D and a heavy dose of Foster.
GB can win in SF because they have the superior QB.
Home field is pretty big in the playoffs in the NFL. The 49ers already beat the Packers in Lambeau (GB's only home loss), and they only have one loss at home themselves, while the Pack is 4-4 on the road.

GB has a much better QB - but SF has a better team, a better coach, and they're playing at home.
1/6/2013 11:32 PM
Posted by Jtpsops on 1/6/2013 11:15:00 PM (view original):
Posted by ncmusician_7 on 1/6/2013 6:19:00 PM (view original):
Posted by Jtpsops on 1/6/2013 12:47:00 AM (view original):
Anything is possible, but I don't see how GB goes into SF and wins. If they were playing ATL, maybe.

If Houston plays like they did today, they'll give NE a much tougher test than in their last matchup. Good D and a heavy dose of Foster.
GB can win in SF because they have the superior QB.
Home field is pretty big in the playoffs in the NFL. The 49ers already beat the Packers in Lambeau (GB's only home loss), and they only have one loss at home themselves, while the Pack is 4-4 on the road.

GB has a much better QB - but SF has a better team, a better coach, and they're playing at home.
The last seven SB champions have had the following seeds:  4,6,1,2,5,3,6  I don't think home field is a big advantage in the NFL playoffs.
1/7/2013 9:10 AM
Posted by golfpro71 on 1/6/2013 8:54:00 PM (view original):
 I believe I will take the Falcons over the Seahawks for the Divisional round. New England should be the hands down pick, but I want to have them available should they make it to the Super Bowl and if I make it that far.
Picks-
Wildcard game- RAVENS
Divisional game- FALCONS
Conference Championship- winner of GB/SF
Super Bowl- winner of Denver/NE

That is how I see it. Comments?
Take this with a grain of salt because I'm a Seahawks season ticket-holder and life-long fan, but I think you are taking a big unnecessary risk taking Atlanta against Seattle this week.
Seattle is probably the worst matchup in the NFL for Atlanta.
Throwing the ball is the only thing Atlanta does really well and the Seahawks have the best secondary in the NFL, along with a great all-around defense.  Atlanta is very poor against the run, and in particular power running games, and the Seahawks have one of the best running games in the NFL, with arguably the best pure power back (and their backup running back, Robert Turbin, is a load as well).  Home-field advantage can be important but, frankly, Atlanta has one of the most lackadaisical fan-bases (on the whole... I know they have their share of very passionate fans) in the NFL.
I think we can all agree that it is highly likely that both Denver and New England will move on this weekend.  If you don't pick one of them this weekend, you will only ever get to pick ONE of them.  My tact would be to pick the one of them that you think will lose to the other (in the end, you have to be right about your picks to win, either way, so make that pick now, IMO.  Personally, I think Denver is going to the Super Bowl, so I would take New England this week.
Just my two cents.
1/7/2013 10:11 AM
Back to back trips to the East Coast?
1/7/2013 11:02 AM
Posted by MikeT23 on 1/7/2013 10:11:00 AM (view original):
Back to back trips to the East Coast?
I don't think that's meaningful, come playoff time.  In the middle of the grind of the season it can be, but at this point there's too much to play for, for it to have a significant effect, IMO. 
That's not to say that Atlanta couldn't come out on fire and win it, but it is more likely that they will have rust from a bye than the travel will have a significant impact on the Seahawks.
Again, he has to get all three picks right to win anyway.  That means if he thinks the AFC champ will win the Super Bowl, he has to pick the NFC champ next week.  If that's the case, I pick my AFC champ now by picking the other as my Divisional round team.  Even if I am wrong, he will still have both teams available to pick in the NFC Championship game next week (if we stipulate that both Denver and New England win this week). 
1/7/2013 11:09 AM
I obviously disagree as I take ATL this week, the winner of GB/SF next week and the winner of the AFC in the SB.  

SEA has 4 days to prepare and another travel day. 
1/7/2013 11:33 AM
Posted by MikeT23 on 1/7/2013 11:09:00 AM (view original):
I obviously disagree as I take ATL this week, the winner of GB/SF next week and the winner of the AFC in the SB.  

SEA has 4 days to prepare and another travel day. 
The only thing you are protecting yourself against in your scenario is New England beating Denver; Do you really think that New England will beat either SF or Green Bay in the Super Bowl?  Because I don't.  My point being that (again, IMO) Seattle is WAY more likely to beat Atlanta than for your scenario to play out for what you are protecting yourself from.
1/7/2013 2:15 PM
Yeah, I think the winner of the AFC wins the Super Bowl.    You're looking at these match-ups thru aqua blue colored glasses.

I don't care to pick the GB/SF game or the NE/Hou game.   Denver beats Balt and ATL beats Seattle.   The winner of the GB/SF game beats ATL.   And it won't matter which team ends up in the SB between NE/DEN as I think either of them beats GB/SF.   The monkey wrench could be Houston upsetting NE.   If that happens, and they then beat DEN, I'd hate to have HOU in the SB. 
1/7/2013 4:36 PM
Posted by MikeT23 on 1/7/2013 2:15:00 PM (view original):
Yeah, I think the winner of the AFC wins the Super Bowl.    You're looking at these match-ups thru aqua blue colored glasses.

I don't care to pick the GB/SF game or the NE/Hou game.   Denver beats Balt and ATL beats Seattle.   The winner of the GB/SF game beats ATL.   And it won't matter which team ends up in the SB between NE/DEN as I think either of them beats GB/SF.   The monkey wrench could be Houston upsetting NE.   If that happens, and they then beat DEN, I'd hate to have HOU in the SB. 
Or you pick Atlanta and the Superbowl in some miracle ends up Atlanta v. Baltimore.  Stranger things have happened after all.
1/8/2013 1:23 AM
I like your strategy, with 117 undefeated people going at it you'll need to have as many options available as you go to pull it off. That's why you were undefeated and we weren't - GL.

That said, I'm going to stick with Denver this week - don't have any confidence in Atlanta this time of year. 
1/8/2013 10:25 PM
On paper, it seems Seattle is the way to go, but there's also something to be said for motivation. No one in these playoffs has more motivation to win a game than Atlanta. They do not want to be bounced on their home field again in their first playoff game. I would not be surprised if they blew out Seattle, TBO. I see them losing next week, but this is a monkey they have to get off their backs, and they'll pull out all the stops.

I'd take Atlanta this week. As for next week, you just have to wait till next week. It's easy to say "I'll pick the winner of this game, then the winner of that game". I think SF and Denver will be in the Superbowl. But what if we end up with Houston vs. Baltimore and GB vs. Atlanta? Then I'm picking the NFC winner to win the Superbowl, so the AFC Championship is my pick for next week.
1/13/2013 2:16 PM
Posted by kcden on 1/7/2013 9:10:00 AM (view original):
Posted by golfpro71 on 1/6/2013 8:54:00 PM (view original):
 I believe I will take the Falcons over the Seahawks for the Divisional round. New England should be the hands down pick, but I want to have them available should they make it to the Super Bowl and if I make it that far.
Picks-
Wildcard game- RAVENS
Divisional game- FALCONS
Conference Championship- winner of GB/SF
Super Bowl- winner of Denver/NE

That is how I see it. Comments?
Take this with a grain of salt because I'm a Seahawks season ticket-holder and life-long fan, but I think you are taking a big unnecessary risk taking Atlanta against Seattle this week.
Seattle is probably the worst matchup in the NFL for Atlanta.
Throwing the ball is the only thing Atlanta does really well and the Seahawks have the best secondary in the NFL, along with a great all-around defense.  Atlanta is very poor against the run, and in particular power running games, and the Seahawks have one of the best running games in the NFL, with arguably the best pure power back (and their backup running back, Robert Turbin, is a load as well).  Home-field advantage can be important but, frankly, Atlanta has one of the most lackadaisical fan-bases (on the whole... I know they have their share of very passionate fans) in the NFL.
I think we can all agree that it is highly likely that both Denver and New England will move on this weekend.  If you don't pick one of them this weekend, you will only ever get to pick ONE of them.  My tact would be to pick the one of them that you think will lose to the other (in the end, you have to be right about your picks to win, either way, so make that pick now, IMO.  Personally, I think Denver is going to the Super Bowl, so I would take New England this week.
Just my two cents.
I stand corrected; Atlanta was the right pick.
1/13/2013 4:16 PM
Posted by MikeT23 on 1/6/2013 6:13:00 PM (view original):

My Balt pick was right.

Next week, I take ATL over whoever wins this one because I don't like ATL over GB or SF(and like the SEA/WSH game, I'd avoid that one).

If all goes as planned, I can take the winner of GB/SF over ATL and the winner of DEN/NE in the SB. 

And I win all the money.

 

I'm on so far.    SF over ATL next week and NE/HOU in the SB.
1/13/2013 4:34 PM
good call guys - Denver layed an egg for me !!!
1/16/2013 9:24 PM
Posted by MikeT23 on 1/13/2013 4:16:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 1/6/2013 6:13:00 PM (view original):

My Balt pick was right.

Next week, I take ATL over whoever wins this one because I don't like ATL over GB or SF(and like the SEA/WSH game, I'd avoid that one).

If all goes as planned, I can take the winner of GB/SF over ATL and the winner of DEN/NE in the SB. 

And I win all the money.

 

I'm on so far.    SF over ATL next week and NE/HOU in the SB.
I have the Niners this week....go 49ers and go Patriots. I will take NE in Super Bowl......so far the plan is coming together. Got a weird feeling about the Ravens though. I should go out and bet on them....that would guarantee that they DON'T win!
of 4
All Forums > SimLeague Football > NFL > NFL Survivor- still undefeated- playoff time!

Terms of Use Customer Support Privacy Statement

Popular on WhatIfSports site: Baseball Simulation | College Basketball Game | College Football Game | Online Baseball Game | Hockey Simulation | NFL Picks | College Football Picks | Sports Games

© 1999-2014 WhatIfSports.com, Inc. All rights reserved. WhatIfSports is a trademark of WhatIfSports.com, Inc. SimLeague, SimMatchup and iSimNow are trademarks or registered trademarks of Electronic Arts, Inc. Used under license. The names of actual companies and products mentioned herein may be the trademarks of their respective owners.