Season 84 D3 Topic

Here we go with another season and the 3rd full edition of my season "preview".

Here's my early final four picks:

Centre - armyof1 WIS #13

83 armyof1 29-4 8-0 15-3 6-1 14-2 4 3 11 A+ Conf Champion
CT Champion
NT (Elite 8)

3 straight E8's follwing back to back NC games(1-1) armyof1 really is on a roll in Phelan, making a living off his balanced classes he never has a down season and consistently has some of the best teams around.  Mark Kay has some elite ath/reb and should dominate on the boards.  Wallace has a great offensive skillset and will look to be the offense motor of this team.  An area where Centre might get hurt is their weak ball handling and passing, but should cause enough turnovers to make up for that.  A weak looking schedule is also another factor, however they should be able to find their way deep into the tourney with any reasonable bracket.

Predicted Record: 25-1 (15-1) with such a weak looking schedule Anderson and Dallas look like the biggest chances for losses and I think Dallas will be able to knock Centre into the beaten category, should be a close one and wouldn't be surprised if Centre finished the season unbeaten.

Endicott
- coachucla WIS #5

83 coachucla 22-8 11-6 8-1 3-1 14-2   117 260 B+ Conf Champion
CT Champion
NT (1st Round)

Looking to rebound from a "down" season coachucla has had a very nice preseason with blowout wins over 2 top 5 teams.  Both times racking up a ton of FT's.  The great ath/spd combo's of the players is really nice.  Dejesus will be able to stop anyone he guards and his athletic ability combined with his elite FT rating is nervous for any coach playing Endicott..  Leading the charge to the free thrown line is PG Henry Edwards and his 44 LP and 67 Per, he has been the biggest benefitor this presason at the charity stripe.  Weakness is passing, but at D3 with their ath/spd ratings in the fastbreak its not a turn-off.

Predicted record: 25-1 (16-0) I think Augustana(IL) will pull of the victory early in the season and then coachucla won't look back as they reel of 25 straight victories.

Piedmont - Swaney623 WIS #6

83 swany623 23-7 11-2 10-3 2-2 11-5   29 40 B NT At-large Bid
NT (1st Round)

A surprising first round loss last season should have swaney and his squad wanting to prove themselves and they sure look capable of doing so.  Backstorm is a great PG with 80+ spd,per and bh.(63 pas)  While Vernon Gibb gives them a great high speed low post presense(57 spd, 63 reb, 74 lp).  This team has multiple solid offensive options, and great spd/def in the press to cause problems, Swaney should be able to make a good run this coming season, and should benefit the tough conf play with one of the better seeds.

Predicted Record: 22-4 (12-4) non conf should be a cakewalk and they should improve their conf record from last season, looking like one of the teams to beat in the USA South.

Howard Payne - gohall WIS #10

83 gohall 28-2 10-1 15-0 3-1 16-0 14 35 158 A+ Conf Champion
CT Champion
NT (1st Round)

Yes you read that right, a zone team in the final four, some may not already remember but in the past 5 seasons gohall has 2 elite 8's and 2 Sweet 16's before last seasons early exit, which that most recent elite 8 run, being undefeated until they were knocked out.  Gohall recruits very well for the flex/zone combo as he has the spd/bh/per game for the offense, without sacrificing guard defense and then he has the high reb/sb big men to anchor the 2-3.  The team goes out early and will prove itself with a  demanding non-conf with notable games against: #19 Chowan, aejones, mikemang23, #9 Wisconsin luthernan, and Dominican.  Giving us an early indicator of how far HP will be able to go this season.

Predicted Record: 25-1 (16-0) I think Chowan will be able to blitz the 2-3 and win on their strong 3 point shooting game, however if gohall plans ahead and can shut it down, a undefeated season looks highly likely with all games looking reasonably winnable.  The next toughest is probably Wisconsin Lutheran, but I'd give gohall the advantage between the two teams.

Personally I'm hoping I can qualify for the NT, with 6 sophomores and an unrelenting conference it will be hard, as I can't slip up in my expected win games.  While managing to pull of a few upsets.  I'm hoping I can go 9-1 in non-conf as that means I just need 5 wins in conference play to qualify as my sos should be enough.  I'm in the process of switching to the press as I'm solidly around B- range so by the middle or end of the season my defensive IQ should be a respectable B+ among my teams contributors.

Another thing to watch, maybe not this season, but within the next few is the development of another superconference to rival the USA South is the SUNYAC lead by dacj501 who grabbed the interest of some elite coaches.

Enjoy the season everyone it should be great, I personally don't think their any clearcut winners yet and that it is pretty wide open, they're a few teams that look like they have the potential to clamp down and show they are those clear cut favorites soon.
7/2/2015 4:29 PM (edited)
Nice work and thanks for doing this!  Even though my team and conference won't be relevant for a few seasons, it's fun to have a thread like this.
7/2/2015 7:14 PM
its a great time to be alive!
7/2/2015 7:59 PM
Very impressive work you do each session. Lucky to have you in this world. Great job! Good luck this season.
7/3/2015 8:27 AM
After that last game, I can tell you for dead certain Averett won't be a factor in anything.
7/4/2015 12:55 AM
Thanks again for doing this.  Love reading your previews.
7/6/2015 7:17 AM
Midseason report:

Final Four Prediction Check in:

Centre 10-0 RPI 6 SOS 45

Pick stays the same.  Undefeated and like I said Wallace is carrying the offensive load.

Endicott 8-2 RPI 71 SOS 142

Changing this pick(address this later), horrible schedule which is not what is needed with a weak conference, lost both games again the 2 good humans played, very close games, but still lost when they needed to prove their ability. especially with no other games worth mentioning.  Still a good team and capable of a run, but it will be very hard as they will get a bad seed.

Piedmont 6-4 RPI 16 SOS 24

Changing this one too, with 3 sim losses already that means something needs to change, the talent is there and so is the coaching, its just not clicking, right now.  Conf play could get ugly the way things are going.

Howard Payne 9-1 RPI 3 SOS 11

Stays, gohall showing how to win with the zone. only 1 loss to rpi #40 and preseason #1(WIS).  Hopefully Adams finds his shooting stroke as thats a lot lower than expected.  Should finish conf play with no other loss.

Heres my two replacement teams:

Greensboro 

9-1 RPI 2 SOS 8, looks like they're on their way to another elite season.  Sure they have a bit inflated rpi/sos, but that just means it will stay there with conf play looming if not reach #1 SOS.  Talent is clearly there and so is the coaching to win the USA South. Will be interesting as fungun has Greensboro elite the past 3 seasons.

Wisconsin Stout

10-0 RPI 4 SOS 26, my surprise pick didn't work last year, maybe this time round they do me a solid and make me look like a genius, great fb/fcp team. 2 very nice wins over yanks and kevutz, both by a large margin as well.  A lot of underclassmen is a worry, but it hasn't hurt them yet and those sophomores should be hitting B+ come tourney time.

Personally I'm extremely happy with La Grange, I usually manage to slip up against a sim team each season as well as my human opponents, but went unscratched during non-conf and now feel a bit better for a grueling conf play, luckily I only need 4 wins to be eligible for the NT, and I think I can do better than that.  Hoping I can mange somewhere between 6-10 and 9-7 which is reasonable.  I'm still a young team and haven't finished the switch to the press(which is amazing!)
7/7/2015 9:41 PM (edited)
about to get to work on a NT bracket, not extremely happy with my bracket even with a sim 3 seed.
7/19/2015 11:38 PM
almost there, been fretting about a few choices, take this **** seriously yo!
7/20/2015 1:15 AM
Final Bracket HERE

a few notes:

Overall I think Howard Payne is the most talented team, however I don't think they win the NC, I think they are better than colorado as well, but it's the zone I think gohall recruited amazing for the zone with his elite big men in Miller and Randel.

I think Menlo is a big surprise some great upperclassmen big men and now some sophomore guards developed enough to contribute, maybe not a F4 team, but I wasn't wanted to put too many 1 seeds in, originally I had 4, and kept looking at the rosters and brackets and Menlo looked like one of the teams capable of making a surprise run.

I kept switching myself from 2nd round upset to E8 and back.  I believe I won't get upset as a 2 seed(you never know), and I think I will face Endicott who I played and beat by 4 in non-conf and I suck at rematches, so I have been super worried.  In the end I said I'll stop always giving myself the L as I've been on the fence most every season with the NT predictions that I am in and they have happened as I'm always worried about predicting myself to far and not reaching it and being upset instead of preparing for the upset and then being happy it didn't happen and then it usually does.

It's really surprising the number of top teams with really inflated schedules, made it hard to find those teams that got ranked high with good ratings, but not elite compared to those elite teams that have suffered through a ton of "real" games.  Mad props to mikemang23 for a brutal non-conf and 3 rpi 6 sos to show, same with gohall and his 2/9 and a tough non-conf.

Some other interesting things are the major decline in the USA South this season sitting at only .5774 a major dropoff, I can't remember finishing below .6 since I've been here.  As well as only 5 NT bids down from the usually 7/8.  It might also be the end of a few more long tenured coaches in the USA South, will be interesting to see how the teams end up if some elite coaches can be recruited to take over, or they end up being taken by some not great coaches or new coaches, or left to rot under the guidance of the sims.  Also means the SUNYAC might have a clear path to D3 phelan conference crown.




7/20/2015 1:49 AM
Wow, Cal Tech goes down early,  guess the big sim jr class was able to take adv of the depth of piman's team

Do not pick against aejones even when he has 4 walkons and runs an 8 man rotation with 3 freshmen.  Beating 28-1 Catholic by 2 points.


7/20/2015 10:48 AM
Thanks for the mention theOnlyis. I thought this Menlo team had a decent shot at getting to the Final 4 as well this season. William Paterson is a good team, and I apologize if this sounds like sour grapes, but it's results like this that make me want to quit this game completely. In a game with 2 FB/FCP teams, my Sr. stud PF Fowler with 65 Ath, 27 Spd, 70 Def, & 86 LP fouls out in 13 minutes (He averaged 1.8 PFs a game this season) going against low post starters, one a Sr. with 30 Ath, 53 Spd, 45 Def, 69 LP and a Soph. with 26 ATh, 34 Spd, 46 Def, & 59 LP and the 2 subs for those guys are both Fr. (58 & 26 Ath, 43 & 32 Spd, 26 & 34 Def).  Seriously? Both my starting guards foul out. WP shoots 50 free throws to our 32 despite Menlo having a significant edge in overall Ath & Def and they play 4 true Fr. compared to my 1 RS Fr, so Menlo's IQ ratings were higher. We have 4 players foul out and they only have one player that got to 4 fouls. Yes, they had an edge in Spd, but that was mainly just with their low post players. I know Spd in the low post has a little more importance with FB/FCP, but does it really offset the significant Ath, Reb, Def, Blk, LP, & Per ratings Menlo had? And yes, Menlo was playing more tired than WP, but that's mainly because we got in so much foul trouble. I could see possibly losing a close game in this match-up, but for us to get blown out by 20 points doesn't make sense to me. It's almost like the ratings don't even matter in some games and results are just random. OK, rant is over. I still have a lot to learn about this game, so I'm probably just missing something obvious, or I was just out coached (which is not unusual). Good luck to William Patterson going forward. You do have an excellent team reddevil19  and your young group will be making noise in the NT for several seasons to come.
7/20/2015 4:09 PM
Some more big names go down and so does my bracket.

Wisconsin Stout has been upset.
Centre has been upset
La Grange has been upset

Rochester Tech(11) and Lakeland(5) are making nice runs, however they will face each other in the afternoon.
7/21/2015 3:37 AM
Season 84 D3 Topic

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