10/15/2012 1:00 PM
You really think that's enough to knock them out of the Top 14 assuming they take care of business with everyone else?  They should still be very strong in the computers.
10/15/2012 1:12 PM
Here is why, MI, MST, STA, and Purdue are all going to lose more games.  Their computer rankings are going to go down.  ND can't afford 2 losses.  Most BCS experts had ND as #1 in the BCS last week, but after this weekend of Purdue and MSSt losing ND dropped 4 spots.  ND SOS is going to continue to drop.
10/15/2012 1:12 PM
I am going to say it right now, I think the SEC has the 4 best teams in the country: Alabama, Florida, LSU, and South Carolina. I don't think there is another team in the country with maybe the exception of Georgia that can beat any of them. Oregon, USC, Notre Dame, and Kansas State are really good, but they aren't SEC Good. Sorry to sound like a Homer, but the eye test and the results over the last 6 seasons are just too much to over look. Alabama, LSU, South Carolina, and Florida are all playing defense at a level that no other schools can match. Their defenses are making their opponents offenses look bad. I think it is very likely we could see 2 SEC teams playing for the National Title again this season.
10/15/2012 1:13 PM
1. Alabama
2. Florida
3. LSU
4. South Carolina
5. Oregon
6. Kansas State
7. Notre Dame
8. Ohio State
9. USC
10. Oregon State
10/15/2012 1:17 PM
Posted by gregsimon on 10/14/2012 8:56:00 PM (view original):
Simply may be of interest to some:

Cincy is 5-0 with 2 of their 5 wins vs FCS schools, and they have yet to play a game on the road. Ithink they are going to fall from the ranks of the undefeated pretty soon, and I think Louisville is better and more deserving than the Bearcats at this point.

Cincy  travels to Toledo next week and then to Louisville the following week, I expect them to lose to Louisville, though they might get by Toledo who hasn't really beaten anyone of note.

Mississippi St has beaten Auburn and Tennessee, I don't know which is more "impressive", but one of those two is their signature win so far this season. They have MTSU next week followed by a 3 game stretch where they will likely go 0-3. On the road at Alabama, home vs A&M and then on the road vs LSU.

Rutgers could very well win out. They have cupcakes for the most part (Temple, Kent St and Army) before ending with a 3 game stretch that begins on the road vs Cincinnati and Pitt and then returning home for their finale vs Louisville (likely with the Big East title on the line).

Notre Dame seems to be for real. They have a defense better than most in the country, and a schedule that can definitely allow them the opportunity to play for all the marbles come January. They play BYU next week. Then they travel to Norman and if they beat Oklahoma will be all but guaranteed a BCS game. Not a bunch of great teams on their schedule (Pitt, BC, WF) afterwards, but they do end the season AT USC. So definitely a solid schedule considering they've already beaten Michigan, Michigan St and Stanford.

Oregon St is 5-0 with 4 of those Ws coming against teams that are .500 or better. They still have games vs Arizona St, AT Stanford and vs Oregon, so they are definitely a legitimate team still in the hunt.
Cincy - Louisville play each other so that will decide that

Miss St -- will be losing really soon.  They might be able to go 10-2, but I think end up 9-3.

Rutgers - part of the Big Least, will play UC and UL to decide that conference

Notre Dame - their SOS is their biggest vulnerability.  what once looked great on paper could haunt them at the end of the season.  ND has to beat USC or OK to guarantee a BCS spot, 2 losses and they will need some luck.  If ND runs the table they will need some luck as well.

Oregon St - I think they are the biggest enigma in college football right now, nobody really knows what to think.  But they will get their chances in conference play
10/15/2012 1:25 PM
Posted by cravedogg on 10/15/2012 1:12:00 PM (view original):
Here is why, MI, MST, STA, and Purdue are all going to lose more games.  Their computer rankings are going to go down.  ND can't afford 2 losses.  Most BCS experts had ND as #1 in the BCS last week, but after this weekend of Purdue and MSSt losing ND dropped 4 spots.  ND SOS is going to continue to drop.

People might have projected them as #1 in the computers last week, but there's no way anyone thought they would be #1 in the overall standings last week when they were sitting at #7 in the polls.  If they did, they were insane because I don't even think that's mathematically possible.  If you're just talking about the computers, they are #2 overall in the computers this week.

All of that being said, I agree that that part of their SOS will drop, but I very much doubt that competitive road losses to USC and Oklahoma (assuming those teams take care of business otherwise) would be enough to drop ND out of the top 14 in the polls, and if they stay there, I don't think there's any way the computers drag them out since their schedule will get the boost of playing those teams.   All bets are off if they get waxed, obviously.

10/15/2012 1:36 PM

I was curious, so I just took a quick look at the final BCS standings going back through 2009 and didn't see any teams other than the mid-major types that had 2 or fewer losses and finished outside of the Top 14.  I have a hard time envisioning ND breaking ground in that area, but who knows?

10/15/2012 1:46 PM
Posted by AlCheez on 10/15/2012 1:36:00 PM (view original):

I was curious, so I just took a quick look at the final BCS standings going back through 2009 and didn't see any teams other than the mid-major types that had 2 or fewer losses and finished outside of the Top 14.  I have a hard time envisioning ND breaking ground in that area, but who knows?

No you are correct, Notre Dame will need to lose 3 games to be outside of the top 14 in the BCS standings. 
10/15/2012 3:13 PM
Posted by moranis on 10/15/2012 1:46:00 PM (view original):
Posted by AlCheez on 10/15/2012 1:36:00 PM (view original):

I was curious, so I just took a quick look at the final BCS standings going back through 2009 and didn't see any teams other than the mid-major types that had 2 or fewer losses and finished outside of the Top 14.  I have a hard time envisioning ND breaking ground in that area, but who knows?

No you are correct, Notre Dame will need to lose 3 games to be outside of the top 14 in the BCS standings. 
That is a very valid point.

I for one hope Notre Dames plays in one of the BCS games against a good opponent.  I would love to see Notre Dame up against the #2 team from the SEC or PAC12.
10/15/2012 3:45 PM (edited)

Unless they manage to run the table and it breaks right for them to get into the title game, if they make a BCS bowl, they are probably heading to the Fiesta since it has the first pick.

The bowls that lose their tie-in teams to the NC game get to go ahead, so I could see them going to the Sugar if 2 SEC teams are in the NC game, or the Rose if Oregon gets into the NC Game and USC doesn't make the eligibility cut.  The Fiesta (against the Big 12 champion if they aren't #1 or #2) is probably their best opponent scenario regardless, since the Rose would match them against the Big 10 champion, and the Sugar in this scenario would be against the last at-large pick or the Big East champion.

10/20/2012 11:01 PM
Posted by moranis on 10/14/2012 11:58:00 AM (view original):
Posted by moranis on 10/7/2012 9:28:00 AM (view original):
Here are mine at this point.

1. Alabama
2. Oregon
3. South Carolina
4. Florida
5. Kansas State
6. Oregon State
7. Notre Dame
8. Ohio State
9. West Virginia
10. Rutgers
And that is why I had West Virginia at 9 last week.  No defense and a one player offense. 

Updated Rankings just before the BCS comes out

1. Alabama
2. Oregon
3. Florida
4. Kansas State
5. Oregon State
6. Notre Dame
7. Louisiana State
8. Ohio State
9. Rutgers
10. South Carolina

And again this doesn't necessarily mean that I think Rutgers would beat South Carolina, merely based on the season where I believe they should be ranked.
Only change from last week (unless Oregon state ends up losing) is Oklahoma in at 10 for South Carolina.

The top 4 have clearly separated themselves from the pack in my mind.  All four with large margin of victory against good competition and only Florida was at home. 
10/21/2012 1:02 AM
1. Alabama
2. Florida
3. Kansas State - I think their body of work is more impressive than Oregon, but they are not as talented as AL or FLA
4. Oregon
5. LSU
6. Notre Dame
7. Oregon State
8. USC
9. Ohio State
10. Oklahoma
10/21/2012 2:10 AM
1. Alabama ~ They roll again.
2. Kansas State ~ They look as though they may not go away.
3. Oregon ~ Dominant. They aren't even showing their full hand to the country yet.
4. Florida ~ So much to protect from & defend against.
5. Notre Dame ~ We all find out how high they should climb next week.
6. Oregon State ~ How they've performed puts them here. What are they REALLY made of?
7. Ohio State ~ Held on without Braxton Miller. Good job!
8. Oklahoma ~ They lost to Kansas State, but have a chance to put that in their rear-view mirror & be the first & perhaps ONLY team to beat the Irish this year.
9. USC ~ If they get it all together & keep it together... will it be enough to stop Oregon?
10. LSU ~ If you watched them against Texas A&M, you know that A&M lost that game more than LSU won it.

Dare I say it: But, if Kansas State continues at the quality of play that they've already shown us - there's nothing infront of them that they shouldn't beat. The only road games left are against Baylor & TCU. The rest of their games are at home. It's really all-or-nothing for this Kansas State team. It's either that they go all the way & deserve a shot at the National Title or they lose a game & sink back down & everyone will yell: "OVERRATED"!
10/21/2012 8:29 AM
"10. LSU ~ If you watched them against Texas A&M, you know that A&M lost that game more than LSU won it."

Couldn't you say the same about Florida?    Drives of 3,1 and 29 yards in the first half in taking a 21-6 lead.   I believe they have 28 total yards in the first half.

But K-State looks real.   They'll need Oregon, Alabama or Florida to lose to get a shot but I think I'd like to see it happen.

10/21/2012 8:51 AM
Alabama and Florida will play in the SECCG so one of them will get a loss.



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