10/21/2012 9:02 AM
Posted by gregsimon on 10/21/2012 8:51:00 AM (view original):
Alabama and Florida will play in the SECCG so one of them will get a loss.



true, but the question is will Kansas State have enough points to jump Oregon (and stay that way all year).  Heck even Notre Dame could in theory jump Kansas State if it wins out.  It really will be interesting.  I'm sure it will all get worked out in the end, but what the hell happens if Bama/Florida, Kansas State, Oregon/Oregon St, and Notre Dame are all unbeaten. It could be a crazy finish to the season.
10/21/2012 9:13 AM
There were about 5-6 unbeatens at this time last year.    That will work itself out.    The bigger issue would be a ton of one loss teams.    LSU beats AL and FL to give all of them 1 one loss.   USC beats ND and Oregon to give them 1 loss.    Oregon beats Oregon St and K-State loses to one of the three ranked teams left on their schedule. 
10/21/2012 9:34 AM
It'll be interesting.

K St is already ahead in the computers, but only by 3.5 spots.

They still have solid teams on their schedule in Texas Tech (6-1), OK St (4-2), AT TCU (5-2) and Baylor (3-3) then Texas (5-2) to end the season. That's 23-10 cumulative.

Of the 5, only Baylor is not better than .500

Oregon still has Colorado (1-6), AT USC (6-1) and Cal (3-5), Stanford (5-2) and then of course AT Oregon St.(6-0). That's only 21-14 cumulative.

Colorado is by far the weakest of all 10 teams, and California is also under .500 having only won 3 games so far. But Oregon St is undefeated, (although I believe they will lose when they go to Stanford in a couple of weeks).

Looking at all of that it would seem that K ST has the better remaining schedule by a decent margin, if not overwhelmingly so, and IMO could definitely create more separation between themselves and Oregon in the computers.

Their biggest obstacle IMO is the human voters who seldom do more than move up the winners and move down the losers, without ever re-evaluating their earlier positioning.

10/21/2012 10:26 AM
Posted by gregsimon on 10/21/2012 9:34:00 AM (view original):
It'll be interesting.

K St is already ahead in the computers, but only by 3.5 spots.

They still have solid teams on their schedule in Texas Tech (6-1), OK St (4-2), AT TCU (5-2) and Baylor (3-3) then Texas (5-2) to end the season. That's 23-10 cumulative.

Of the 5, only Baylor is not better than .500

Oregon still has Colorado (1-6), AT USC (6-1) and Cal (3-5), Stanford (5-2) and then of course AT Oregon St.(6-0). That's only 21-14 cumulative.

Colorado is by far the weakest of all 10 teams, and California is also under .500 having only won 3 games so far. But Oregon St is undefeated, (although I believe they will lose when they go to Stanford in a couple of weeks).

Looking at all of that it would seem that K ST has the better remaining schedule by a decent margin, if not overwhelmingly so, and IMO could definitely create more separation between themselves and Oregon in the computers.

Their biggest obstacle IMO is the human voters who seldom do more than move up the winners and move down the losers, without ever re-evaluating their earlier positioning.

The question is will Kansas State have such a commanding computer lead to make up the difference in the human polls and in that I don't think they will because as other teams lose and drop back, Oregon will close the gap by that and that reason alone.  Oregon also has the Pac 12 title game, which should be another solid team (USC?). 
10/21/2012 12:11 PM
Oregon controls their own destiny. They have Stanford, Oregon St, and USC to play plus probably USC again in the PAC 12 Championship. That's a big help in the computers plus it'll keep them ahead of K-State in the polls.
10/21/2012 5:00 PM
I think the real and actual question is who is going to play the SEC Champ in the National Title Game.  Whoever wins the SEC Championship is playing for the national title, the pollsters will make sure of it.  So it is going to come down to KState, USC, Oregon, Notre Dame, and maybe Oklahoma.  I didn't include Oregon State because I think their bubble will burst sooner than later.
10/21/2012 5:05 PM
I disagree.  If this happens "LSU beats AL and FL to give all of them 1 one loss", and it could, undefeated Oregon, K-State and Notre Dame aren't letting the SEC in.
10/21/2012 5:40 PM
Well, there's another angle that could play out. What if Georgia takes down Florida next week. Then LSU knocks 'Bama out from being undefeated. Then Georgia beats LSU in the SEC Championship game.. How attractive would Georgia be to get into the National Championship game even if there's nobody left undefeated at the end? It would be chaos because Alabama would still only have 1 loss. Would we see 1 loss 'Bama vs. 1 loss Georgia? What about 1 loss USC? Wow.. That would be a mind blowing situation.
10/21/2012 8:20 PM
So it would appear the wait is shorter than expected...

K St in at 3, Oregon slips to 4

10/22/2012 6:19 AM
Posted by MikeT23 on 10/21/2012 5:05:00 PM (view original):
I disagree.  If this happens "LSU beats AL and FL to give all of them 1 one loss", and it could, undefeated Oregon, K-State and Notre Dame aren't letting the SEC in.
 I disagree, 1 loss SEC team gets into the national title game and it will be the most contraversial BCS ever.  Watch it happen
10/22/2012 6:27 AM
Posted by gregsimon on 10/21/2012 8:20:00 PM (view original):
So it would appear the wait is shorter than expected...

K St in at 3, Oregon slips to 4

that's because there are a lot of teams between them in the computer polls.  that won't happen near the end of the year. 
10/22/2012 3:46 PM (edited)
1.  Alabama
2.  Oregon
3.  Kansas State
4.  Florida
5.  Oklahoma
6.  LSU
7.  USC
8.  Notre Dame
9.  Oregon State
10. Georgia
10/28/2012 9:56 AM
1. Alabama
2. Oregon
3. Kansas State
4. Notre Dame
5. Louisiana State
6. Florida
7. Ohio State
8. Georgia
9. Louisville
10. Florida State
10/28/2012 10:01 AM

1. Alabama
2. Kansas State
3. Oregon
4. Notre Dame
5. LSU
6. Georgia
7. Florida
8. Ohio State
9. Louisville
10. Florida State

10/28/2012 8:28 PM
I think it's hard to argue for anyone else belonging in the top 10 other than the 10 listed by both moranis and cravedogg.


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