11/5/2012 1:25 PM (edited)
I do think Alabama is a bit more balanced on offense (though Richardson was a monster), I just don't think the defense is as good as last years and since it is a defense oriented team, I think that makes enough of a difference for me to call them not as good. 

As for games from prior years, I again don't put a lot of stock in those games, but the Auburn game was 22-19.  The supposed weak Oregon defense held Auburn to less points then every single SEC team on Auburn's schedule that year except Mississippi State.  And that Oregon defense was no where near as explosive as this years team.  Oregon put up 27 against LSU last year and while they gave up 40, that was still less than Georgia in the SEC title game, Arkansas, Auburn, Ole Miss, Florida, and West Virginia. 

Just because Oregon scores a ton of points, doesn't mean it doesn't play defense.  A very common misconception. 
11/5/2012 12:02 PM
Another misconception is that just because one team was able to expose flaws in a certain defense doesn't mean every team can take advantage of those same flaws.  LSU has played Alabama 3 times in 12 months.  They know what to expect.  Oregon does not. 

You can play with numbers all you want, that doesn't mean your point is true...  watch this:  USC scored 38 against Oregon last year.  This year they scored 51 points.  Oregon's defense has clearly not shown any improvement and Oregon doesn't yet have another victory against a quality opponent to prove otherwise.

Oregon and Alabama is the game I think 99% of the country wants to see.  And when they get there, I can see both teams doing very well.  Oregon is schemed such that the QB doesn't have to make a lot of decisions.  Alabama's defense will have to beat the schemes enough to force the freshman QB to make game changing decisions.  If they do, the Crimson Tide offense probably has enough to win the game.   If they don't and Mariota plays well, Oregon probably holds the advantage. 

Both are outstanding teams in very different ways.  It would be exciting to watch.

11/5/2012 1:28 PM
I wasn't basing this solely on the LSU game.  I have been leaning that way the last couple of weeks.  I just believe Oregon is so good offensively and has one of those very opportunistic defenses (i.e. lots and lots of turnovers created) that they will be very difficult to beat.  And I do really think Oregon's speed on both sides of the ball will be tough for Alabama to deal with.  I wouldn't be surprised at all if Alabama won, I would just favor Oregon on a neutral field (I would expect Miami to be fairly neutral). 
11/5/2012 1:29 PM
I simply don't think Oregon has the horses on defense to stop Alabama's power running game.  LSU has a much better defense than Oregon, knows Alabama better than anyone, and still couldn't get the job done.  By the time the National Title game is played Alabama will probably have 7 or 9 guys on their defense that could play in the NFL next year.  But make no mistakes, most of Alabama's defense will end up in the NFL over the next couple years
11/5/2012 2:08 PM (edited)
Oregon has 4 players that will all probably be drafted this spring from their defense (not to mention plenty of young guys not yet eligible).  Dion Jordan very easily could be a top ten pick (along with Alonso, Boyett, and Clay all likely being drafted).  This isn't the Oregon team from a few years ago that was all offense and no defense.  This team can play defense at a very high level. 
11/5/2012 2:37 PM
Alabama had some problems getting to Mettenburger this past weekend.  I think that was obvious and it exposed a flaw in the Bama defense.  From what I understand, Oregon has the same exact problem. Its Oregon's inability to pass rush without bringing the house that limits the Oregon defense.  If you have to bring blitzes in order to pressure the QB, you are every bit as vulnerable as Alabama showed this last weekend.

Unless both of those teams do something to address that, I think they are both vulnerable, but only to teams that have elite speed and skill that can take advantage of the flaws.  And there just aren't that many teams in college football right now that can do that.

11/8/2012 8:51 AM
I'm sure most of you have seen this but, if not, take a look.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/story/20853257

The results are interesting.
11/8/2012 11:34 AM
Posted by MikeT23 on 11/8/2012 8:51:00 AM (view original):
I'm sure most of you have seen this but, if not, take a look.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/story/20853257

The results are interesting.
not really.  Notre Dame and Kansas State have played the toughest schedules and as such should get the most votes based on that criteria.  It doesn't mean they are the two best teams though.
11/8/2012 11:37 AM
What criteria should be used to determine the "best" teams?
11/8/2012 1:02 PM
Posted by MikeT23 on 11/8/2012 11:37:00 AM (view original):
What criteria should be used to determine the "best" teams?
any number of ways to do it.  I mean look at all the different polls that exist.
11/8/2012 1:27 PM
Then how do we get the "best" teams in the NC?

Seriously, without pre-season polls, AL/OR are not the top 2.   Where you start has more to do with where you finish than it ever should.    Before this season started it was a gimme that AL/LSU would be in the NC if they ran the table.   
11/8/2012 2:48 PM
Posted by MikeT23 on 11/8/2012 1:27:00 PM (view original):
Then how do we get the "best" teams in the NC?

Seriously, without pre-season polls, AL/OR are not the top 2.   Where you start has more to do with where you finish than it ever should.    Before this season started it was a gimme that AL/LSU would be in the NC if they ran the table.   
You simply can not do so consistently.

ND and K St have performed the best against their respective schedules this season. That doesn't mean in any way that they are the two best teams. The biggest failure of any computer system is that computer only looks at raw data and never actually sees a game.

There is no way to quantify what the eye test shows us. Alabama is the best team in the country. Maybe Oregon could make a good case. Hell all 4 of the unbeatens can make a strong case.

What if Louisville is truly the "best" team in the country? There isn't any way to know if they are or aren't. Humans at least give them credit for being undefeated at this point, and have them ranked 10th. The 6 BCS Computers have them anywhere between 8 and 23, with the average of the rest being 12.5. I have a hard time believing they are "really" the 10th best team in the country personally.

Bottom line is the answer to your first question is simply "you can't".

As to your second comment, Alabama didn't  run the table last year though did they? It was circumstances, out of their control, that allowed them to climb back up to number 2. I agree 100 % with the preseason poll carrying too much weight, but there is no system that gets the 2 best teams in the NCG other than a playoff, and even then you aren't guaranteed the two "best" teams will meet at the end.
11/8/2012 3:23 PM
Well, if "you can't", then what's the point?
11/8/2012 3:32 PM
The point is a playoff is the best solution. Because although you still aren't "guaranteed" the two best teams play in the NCG, at least it is a format people have grown accustomed to and see in every other sport.

Just like the NFL, sometimes the "best" team gets beat and a WC team goes to the Super Bowl. Most people are fine with that because they realize a loss on the field isn't the same as being kept out because of popular opinion or whatever else BS system you make up.

11/8/2012 3:47 PM
So you'd staunchly stand behind AL, OR, KS and ND as the four "best" teams this year?
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