Posted by MikeT23 on 11/22/2013 6:39:00 AM (view original):
Jeez. They examined the stats waaaaaaay deeper than you, me, moranis or anyone else with an opinion in this thread. As I said earlier, they consider a 4 yard gain on 1st down a failure. I don't know why but, if you'll read my theory, it makes sense.
Out of curiousity, how many times have you seen each team in your top 25 play?
I appreciate your admiration for the work they put in to come up with their rankings. I also agree with you on your theory about a 4 yard gain on 1st down.
Where we have a difference is that I see no reason for why I should take S&P+ ranking of Ohio State as proof for your argument just because it's a complex ranking that you admit to not understanding really yourself. Just because something is complex, doesn't mean that it automatically comes up to an optimal conclusion.
As for the Top 25 that I posted & your question to me: That Top 25 wasn't my own, it was a calculation that I did based on the best sources that I can come up with. That Top 25 that I posted does have a human component to it which the S&P+ doesn't, it's a computer calculation based on every play. That is why the Top 25 that I posted is far more reasonable & closer to reality than the S&P+. I understand that a mix of human & computer is the best way to get an accurate ranking. Therefore, it doesn't matter how many games that I've personally seen... no one person can watch every game, but if you go out & gather the best information available & do your research... you can come up with a better idea than any single human or computer. Between everything that's in that Top 25, it covers some intangibles, I'm sure of it.