Rasmussen and Polling Topic

Posted by DougOut on 9/27/2012 8:24:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 9/27/2012 7:51:00 PM (view original):
doug - if you are so confident please take the bet I offered swamp. I'll give you $500 if Romney wins, you give me $500 if Obama wins. I'm sure we can find a way to escrow the bet online.
What the hell do I look like? A card shark? Christ!  I'd gladly give you $10,000.oo if you could guarantee Romney would win and save the Republic from destruction.

This is hardly something to gamble on. One quarter of a millennium is on the line. A civilization is at stake. A world hangs in the balance.

And you want to reach into your pocket for a roll of worthless paper bigger than your limp ****.

Sorry about your luck.

And don't even talk to me if you're gonna offer up stupid **** like that. Cause I got something for you.

YOU tell me why Obama is so great and he's better than Romney and all the wonderful things and how great life is.
 
This ain't a game. You tell me and we'll talk.

The Constitution has been shredded. I'll give you a dollar if you even think you got a clue.
Lighten up, Francis.
9/27/2012 10:18 PM
i will
9/27/2012 10:19 PM
thanks
9/27/2012 10:24 PM
yqw
9/27/2012 10:26 PM

President Obama's lead and probability of winning is getting larger every day.  fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

The exception was the Rasmussen Reports tracking poll, which gave Mitt Romney a two-point lead among likely voters. (This was in the version of the poll that included voters who leaned toward a candidate, which is the one that FiveThirtyEight uses for all surveys.)

What to think of the Rasmussen poll? Their surveys usually have a Republican lean, but it seems to have gotten stronger in the last few weeks. It has also been stronger in some years than others. Rasmussen got reasonably good results in years like 2006 and 2008 when their polls were close to the consensus. However, their polls were the least accurate of the major polling firms in 2010, when they had an especially strong Republican house-effect. The same was true in 2000, when they had a three- or four-point statistical bias toward Republican candidates.

This feature is not unique to Rasmussen Reports: a poll that substantially differs from the consensus, whether in a Democratic or Republican direction, is usually not one that you’ll want to bet on. And there is even less reason to do so when a poll is taking a number of methodological shortcuts, while others are being more thorough. But there have been years when the whole polling average has been off in one direction or another, and the “outlier” polls turn out to look good. It’s also the case that a broken clock is right twice a day.


9/27/2012 10:26 PM
Have you called denny lately?
9/27/2012 10:26 PM
Who?
9/27/2012 10:46 PM
More from today's 538 blog:


Still, this Electoral College discussion is going to be academic unless Mr. Romney can reverse his poor run of polling. We’ll conclude with a scary thought for Republicans.

Right now, the Nov. 6 forecast projects that Mr. Obama will win the popular vote by 3.6 percentage points. As I mentioned, that does account for about a two-point decline from where Mr. Obama seems to be in the polls right now. Otherwise, however, the model assumes that the uncertainty in the forecast is symmetric: Mr. Obama is as likely to overperform it as underperform it.

If Mr. Obama misses to the downside by 3.7 percentage points, then Mr. Romney would win, at least in the popular vote. However, if Mr. Obama missed to the upside by 3.7 percentage point instead, he’d win the popular vote by 7.3 percentage points, exactly replicating his margin from 2008.

In other words, there looks to be about a 20 percent chance that Mr. Romney will win, but also about a 20 percent chance that Mr. Obama will actually beat his 2008 margin in the popular vote. The smart money is on an outcome somewhere in the middle – as it has been all year. But if you can conceive of a Romney comeback – and you should account for that possibility – you should also allow for the chance that things could get really out of hand, and that Mr. Obama could win in a borderline landslide.
9/27/2012 10:46 PM
Posted by speedfreak on 9/27/2012 10:18:00 PM (view original):
I agree, but I disagree also.
I agree, but I disagree. Also.   

FTFY...translated into Palinese

9/28/2012 12:22 AM
More from Rasmussen...

Tied at 48%.

And this makes sense. The economy is in shambles and people are unemployed at record levels.

How could Obama be up by 10 points!

How could seniors and military personel be going for Obama.

It doesnt make sense. The polls must be wrong.

Rasmussen makes sense.
9/28/2012 2:38 PM
HAHAHA!! Yeah, how could seniors possibly be against him? After the warm greeting Ryan got from AARP, it's clear seniors love him!
9/28/2012 2:45 PM
The AARP is a liberal group.

Seniors across America are responding well to Romney.
9/28/2012 2:53 PM
Sadly, it appears the Republicans and their support groups are conducting "interesting" polls across the Country.  I call them interesting because they differ from all the independently done polls by numerous % points (several PA races differ by almost double-figures).  I guess they figure more people will vote Republican if they think that candidate has a better chance.  Pretty much all political activities sicken me any more, so this doesn't surprise me.
9/28/2012 3:02 PM
Posted by jiml60 on 9/27/2012 10:46:00 PM (view original):
More from today's 538 blog:


Still, this Electoral College discussion is going to be academic unless Mr. Romney can reverse his poor run of polling. We’ll conclude with a scary thought for Republicans.

Right now, the Nov. 6 forecast projects that Mr. Obama will win the popular vote by 3.6 percentage points. As I mentioned, that does account for about a two-point decline from where Mr. Obama seems to be in the polls right now. Otherwise, however, the model assumes that the uncertainty in the forecast is symmetric: Mr. Obama is as likely to overperform it as underperform it.

If Mr. Obama misses to the downside by 3.7 percentage points, then Mr. Romney would win, at least in the popular vote. However, if Mr. Obama missed to the upside by 3.7 percentage point instead, he’d win the popular vote by 7.3 percentage points, exactly replicating his margin from 2008.

In other words, there looks to be about a 20 percent chance that Mr. Romney will win, but also about a 20 percent chance that Mr. Obama will actually beat his 2008 margin in the popular vote. The smart money is on an outcome somewhere in the middle – as it has been all year. But if you can conceive of a Romney comeback – and you should account for that possibility – you should also allow for the chance that things could get really out of hand, and that Mr. Obama could win in a borderline landslide.
You know why this is complete BS?  Because there is a 0% chance he will beat his 2008 popular vote margin.  Whoever wrote this is a ******* moron.
9/28/2012 3:26 PM
9/28/2012 4:24 PM
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