All Forums > SimLeague Baseball > SimLeague Baseball > How Billy Beane are we really ? - how it ended up
2/20/2013 6:50 PM
Also, what are the SLG numbers for those .362 and .365 OBP dudes?
2/20/2013 8:13 PM
Posted by ncmusician_7 on 2/20/2013 11:20:00 AM (view original):
Posted by jfranco77 on 2/20/2013 10:42:00 AM (view original):
How is your 1B? I'd consider playing Mr. 290 out of position there.

Normally I'd lean heavily towards Mr. 380, but if the league is full of deadball pitchers, I expect their actual production will be pretty close, since Mr. 380 will walk less than expected and Mr. 290 will hit for a better AVG than expected.
If mr .290 hits for a higher avg than 290, then the other player will get a boost to his avg as well.
I agree wth ncmusician. If that's the case you could get a .400 OBP at the top of the lineup, which would be very, very nice in front of Jacobson/Holliday.
2/21/2013 5:25 AM
Thanks bringinsxybc and ncmusician. I think you guys have convinced me to at least start out with the high OBP OF at the top of the lineup and see how things progress. Also because that leaves me a good hitter on the bench for PH and filling in when needed. 

By the way, doesn't Superman have to convince you to say your name backwards ? 
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2/21/2013 12:59 PM
Ah, yet more food for thought from a maestro. hmmm. 

I will check out the stats you mention biglenr, thanks. 
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2/21/2013 4:32 PM
It's Sportsman's III - plus 3 for doubles and plus 1 for HRs to RF, otherwise neutral. 

Weirdly, for 2B/100 Graney - the OBP guy outpaces Chicken Wolf 4.6 to 3.6, for 1B/100 Wolf has the advantage at 23 to 16. 

That would lead me to think that Graney, AVG notwithstanding could be a sleeper as he gets a lot of walks and hits a lot of doubles in a doubles park. 


2/21/2013 7:53 PM
Posted by biglenr on 2/21/2013 11:21:00 AM (view original):
Ok... I'll be the devils advocate...

I'll use the higher BA guy. 

Why?  Because of the way the sim works.  Players on the edge of the curve tend to go even more extreme... Your high avg hitters seem to do better (relative to other players in the league), and your low average players seem do do even worse (again, relative).   However, walk rates are fairly constant for hitters

So the high OBP guy I'd expect to see do about .200 with a .340 OBP. 

The high average guy I'd expect to do about .280 with a .320 OB... I don't think his average will be punished as much as the OBP guy, since he's right in the middle of the curve, and the kind of guy the sim is designed to make fairly accurate. 

I'd evaluate 2b/100Ab and 3b/100Ab. 
If the .290 player gets reduced to .280, then the .240 player would get reduced to .231 (not .200), assuming they are facing the same pitching, fielding range, etc.
2/21/2013 8:07 PM
Player performance isn't linear. It's bell curvey, the farther you get away from the middle the bigger the effect. That's why Cy Williams is so good.
2/21/2013 8:09 PM
Plus you used bell curvey as an adjective. 
2/21/2013 8:11 PM
What are the + numbers for both players and the obp+ for the two guys with the obp around 360?
2/21/2013 8:12 PM
And I used farther right
2/21/2013 8:22 PM
Hub Collins is OBP + at 110. The other was Jacobson whom I was thinking originally of batting second who is at 109. If I go with Chicken Wolf, I would probably bat Jacobson second, with King Kelly third, Holliday, Wolf fifth and then Wally Pipp. If go with Graney, he would probably bat second after Collins, who has 65 SB, though 40 CS, so not quite at the threshold where SBs are particularly effective.
2/21/2013 8:44 PM
Posted by Trentonjoe on 2/21/2013 8:07:00 PM (view original):
Player performance isn't linear. It's bell curvey, the farther you get away from the middle the bigger the effect. That's why Cy Williams is so good.
The pitcher-batter interaction is the log5 calculation.
2/21/2013 9:28 PM
It's been a long time since I had Pre-Calc, but to make a bell curve you need an exponent right?   Log5's are just multiplication?  There's just a ton of multiplication?

Either way, the extremes are  more successful than they mathematically should be in my experience.
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