for Jeffrey Vegas?  I have him on +1 right now, shooting 54% on 2s so far and 46% on threes.  Also a good FT shooter.  Obviously not very fast.

+2 for me. 

+1

0 !

Posted by pinkeye on 7/13/2011 2:44:00 PM (view original):
0 !

I think there's an argument to be made for that, but i just don't like his ath/spd enough to justify taking away from his 3-pt shooting, even with the nice lp.

0 -- same as I have set for this guy http://www.whatifsports.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=0&pid=1807174

i'm one of those guys that doesn't go past 0 for a primary scorer, since it seems they take 85% of their shots from 3 anyways

but i've also never had a guard with 70 lp, maybe it's necessary

At +1 he's taken equal numbers of 2s and 3s to within what I would imagine the error margin to be, 202 3s and 191 2s.

Also shot 111 FTs, which you would imagine came primarily from 2-point attempts.  So he's probably taken more 2s than 3s.  Although he played PG for most of the season until I recently moved him to the 2, so he may have picked up a decent number of non-shooting FT attempts.

Posted by dahsdebater on 7/13/2011 3:11:00 PM (view original):
Also shot 111 FTs, which you would imagine came primarily from 2-point attempts.  So he's probably taken more 2s than 3s.  Although he played PG for most of the season until I recently moved him to the 2, so he may have picked up a decent number of non-shooting FT attempts.

which is why I think he should be set to +2. At .455 clip from 3pt range, most of his shots should be 3s. Even if he drops to a .420 clip due to shooting only 3s (and I have yet to see evidence of dropoff due to setting a player to +1 or +2), that's still more efficient than he is now in terms of overall scoring

Yes, but you lose some of the fouls created.  In my certainly undeserved victory against conference rival Chicago recently I fouled out both of their starting guards, and the 2-guard - his best scorer by a huge margin and of course the first defender on Vegas - fouled out in 13 minutes.  I'm convinced that played a huge role in my victory.  Even so, in most cases I agree that the stats indicate Vegas should probably be shifted to +2.  What concerns me is that my SOS is not overly impressive.  I'm concerned the results might not be the same against better teams come tournament time.  That's why I would kinda like opinions based more on his ratings than stats...

In my experience, I have always been unsuccessful when setting a player to a plus setting on 3pt frequency. Not that I haven't seen players succeed with it, but it hasn't worked out well for my players/team. I never go above zero.

He's getting 1.366 points each time he puts up a three and only 1.078 when he shoots a 2.  If that's at +1, then he should be at +1 or +2 - I'd toy with moving him to +2, even.

" and only 1.078 when he shoots a 2"

Is that including fouls created?

For what it's worth, I've played 7 games so far against tournament-caliber opponents, RPIs 5, 7, 8, 12, 12, 13, and 39.  I'm 3-4 in those games, with 1 win and 2 losses coming in OT.  More to the point, Vegas has been held to "only" 16.6 PPG in these contests.  Part of this is because we've run normal tempo in 4 of those games as opposed to uptempo in most or all of the rest.  The major factor, though, is that his shooting, not surprisingly, drops off.

On the one hand, he's still shooting 50% on deuces against tournament-caliber opponents while dropping to 37.5% on 3s.  This still slightly favors the 3-ball on a PPS basis with fouls not included, it's much closer.  On the other hand, he's only attempting 2.7 FTs per game.  Not a huge surprise that a 41/61 Ath/Spd guard has a tough time drawing a lot of fouls against better defenses.  Those stats seem to suggest that an approximately equal ratio of 2s and 3s (which is maintained in the higher-caliber contests, with 48 of each) is about right against tougher opponents.  So maybe for now I shift him to +2 but bump him back down to +1 come tournament time...