I know I've seen teams higher on the projection report get snubbed while lower ranked teams make the NT as at large bids...I thought it was the sole determinant too, but apparently it isn't.

Posted by tkimble on 2/27/2013 8:47:00 PM (view original):

Posted by colonels19 on 2/27/2013 8:25:00 PM (view original):
The projection report isn't the be all - end all when it comes to seeding, it's just a guide.

Well...you're wrong, it's pretty much they exact formula they use to determine seeding.  

Yes, thats excatly why it was added by Seble.  So coaches would know where they stood vs. having to guess based on RPI.

Naismith D3 is a bloodbath. Whitworth went to S16, E8 has the following seeds: 12,7,12,2,1,3,5,2

And I came within OT of the Elite Eight as a 16 seed. 

Posted by colonels19 on 2/28/2013 11:52:00 PM (view original):
I know I've seen teams higher on the projection report get snubbed while lower ranked teams make the NT as at large bids...I thought it was the sole determinant too, but apparently it isn't.

colonels trust me on this one (or dont - do some research and prove me wrong) - it IS the sole determinant for at-large bids. at least, it was when it came out, and has been for most of its existence, although i cant swear theres not a bug somewhere - if there is, it would be a valuable contribution to the community if you could identify a a scenario where the projection report did not dictate who got seeded where, so the bug could be fixed. 

if you are simply talking about making the NT, there should be *NO* exceptions to the rule. so finding 1 single exception would be pretty huge. the actual seeding can be affected by conference interactions, which can have a lot more impact than one might think (evidenced by the 13 seed getting a 16 seed).

I'm almost positive that I've seen this happen to a conference mate of mine, very recently...Phelan will be into the tournament early next week so I'll keep you posted, but again, I feel like I've seen 68s 69s 70s in the projection report make the NT as at-large bids...I don't think it's ironclad, and I actually want it to be.

If there are teams ranked 64 or better with losing records, or not eligible for post season play, that would allow worse ranked teams to get into the tourney.

We'll see what Phelan says in a few days, I won't back off my stance until I see that I'm wrong, so we both/all just have to wait here.

Tark is going to the NT today. Here is the projection report for the top 80 heading in after the CT's finished up this afternoon. I separated by 4s for obvious reasons.

PROJECTION REPORT RANKING, TEAM, NT SEED 

1 Roanoke  1
2 Emory and Henry  1
3 Colorado 1
4 Emory  1

5 George Fox 2
6 Chicago 2
7 Southwestern 2 
8 Methodist  2

9 Trinity (TX)  3
10 Washington and Lee 3
11 E. Mennonite 3
12 Nebraska Wesleyan 3

13 Lynchburg 4
14 Susquehanna 4
15 Dallas 5
16 Piedmont 4

17 Ohio Wesleyan 4
18 Stillman 5
19 Drew 5
20 St. Joseph's (ME) 5

21 Rowan 6
22 Chapman 6
23 Chowan 7
24 Hanover 6

25 Rhodes 7
26 Milwaukee Engineering 6
27 Guilford 7
28 Finlandia 7

29 Thomas 8
30 Aurora 8
31 Staten Island 8
32 W. New England 8

33 California Tech. 9
34 Hiram 9
35 Hamline 9
36 Randolph-Macon 10

37 La Grange 9
38 Greensboro 10
39 New York U. 10
40 Rutgers at Newark 10

41 Virginia Wesleyan 12
42 Keene St. 11
43 DePauw 11
44 Haverford 11

45 Bethany 12
46 Baldwin-Wallace 11
47 Marietta 12
48 Ozarks 13

49 Wisconsin, Stevens Point 12
50 Roger Williams 13
51 Simpson 13
52 Connecticut 13

53 Washington and Jefferson DNQ, under .500, PIT 1
54 Marymount 14
55 Denison 14
56 La Verne 14

57 Castleton St. 14
58 Pacific Lutheran 15 
59 Brandeis  PIT 1
60 Montclair St.  PIT 1

61 Texas Lutheran 15
62 Keuka 15
63 Moravian  PIT 1
64 St. Lawrence PIT 2

65 Maine, Presque Isle PIT 2
66 California Lutheran PIT 2
67 New England  PIT 2
68 Hartwick  PIT 3

69 Washington (MD)  PIT 3
70 Central  PIT 3
71 Thomas More  PIT 3 
72 Wisconsin, Oshkosh  PIT 4

73 Menlo  PIT 4
74 Lycoming  PIT 4
75 Pacific  PIT 4
76 Albertus Magnus  PIT 5

77 Carthage  PIT 5
78 Massachusetts Liberal Arts  PIT 5
79 Mount Ida  PIT 5
80 Maine Maritime Academy  PIT 6

Others
103 Westfield St. - 16 - AUTO QUALIFIER
104 Babson 15 - AUTO QUALIFIER
118 Mount St. Mary - 16 - AUTO QUALIFIER
132 S. Maine 16 - AUTO QUALIFIER
169 SUNY Oneonta 16 - AUTO QUALIFIER

Posted by colonels19 on 3/1/2013 9:27:00 PM (view original):
We'll see what Phelan says in a few days, I won't back off my stance until I see that I'm wrong, so we both/all just have to wait here.

thats reasonable, its super easy for you to prove yourself right too (assuming you are), all you need is 1 counter example :) after seble made the change for conferences, seeding has definitely been significantly different, so im interested to hear if you can find a team.

tark case study raw data posted

Well there it is, look...59 and 60 made the PIT but 61 and 62 made the NT

Posted by colonels19 on 3/2/2013 6:07:00 PM (view original):
Well there it is, look...59 and 60 made the PIT but 61 and 62 made the NT

colonels, do your homework for once.

I'm not even in Tark and it took me two minutes to see that 61 and 62 won their CT.

I'm just going based off the data here, I'm not in Tark, thus I can't tell who won their CT and who didn't...you are right though, they both won their CT...my bad.

Posted by colonels19 on 3/2/2013 6:16:00 PM (view original):
I'm just going based off the data here, I'm not in Tark, thus I can't tell who won their CT and who didn't...you are right though, they both won their CT...my bad.

Again -- I'm not in Tark, either. But the mouse on my computer does work.