7/29/2013 1:27 PM
Posted by arssanguinus on 7/29/2013 6:15:00 AM (view original):
Posted by terps21234 on 7/28/2013 8:55:00 PM (view original):
Well, how can you say he did better than bigbucks vs good teams.  Bigbucks played 3 more good teams than him, so you can't say that.  If they both played 12 games against good teams than fine, but that's not the case.  One played nine and bigbucks played 12.  Both have 8 wins, can't assume other guy would win 1 more game if he played 3 more top 100 teams. They count wins plain and simple.   You could be 34-0 against top 200 and you'll get better seed than someone being 28-6 and 10-4 against top 50.  Colonels yes do your BPI, just for kicks.
So, if one team played ten top 100 teams and was ten and oh, and another played twenty top 100 teams and was ten and ten would you say that you couldn't say that the other team did better against good teams because "you couldn't presume that other team would win at least one of those ten games"?
Excatly, the 10-0 team didn't do better against the top 100 than the 10-10 team. Both had 10 wins and team B just played more games against tougher competition.  You don't know what team A would do if they played 10 more games against top 100, but team B would have a better SOS due to the fact that they did play better tougher competition.  SOS is a factor in RPI and projection report.  That's all I'm saying.
7/30/2013 7:34 AM
terps, I'm sorry, your argument is illogical.

A team that goes 10-0 vs. the top 100 very, very cleary did better against top competition than a team that went 10-10. There is just a breakdown of logic in your argument.

7/30/2013 2:52 PM
terps while technically its possible for a team who went 10-0 vs the top 100 to go 0-10 in their next 10 games, its just not probable. seeding must be done with probability of success in mind. technically the best team in the country could be 0-30. how do you know in a series of 1000 games, they wouldnt go 970-30, while the 30-0 team goes 30-970? you dont know, but come on, what are the odds of that? you have to make the decision based on the information you do have.

of course, SOS should count for something, but isnt the real example here 8-1 vs 8-4? clearly 8-1 is better, theres no question there. its not like a 2-0 vs 10-2, saying well the first guy is 100% WP and the second is, whatever, 84% or so. that 10-2 is better, because with a larger body of work, you are more confident that is a really good team. but when you have equal wins and a much better WP, there is no argument, it seems to me. that SOS would give you the edge if it was close - but 8-4 and 8-1 simply are not that close.
7/30/2013 4:06 PM
Posted by gillispie1 on 7/30/2013 2:53:00 PM (view original):
terps while technically its possible for a team who went 10-0 vs the top 100 to go 0-10 in their next 10 games, its just not probable. seeding must be done with probability of success in mind. technically the best team in the country could be 0-30. how do you know in a series of 1000 games, they wouldnt go 970-30, while the 30-0 team goes 30-970? you dont know, but come on, what are the odds of that? you have to make the decision based on the information you do have.

of course, SOS should count for something, but isnt the real example here 8-1 vs 8-4? clearly 8-1 is better, theres no question there. its not like a 2-0 vs 10-2, saying well the first guy is 100% WP and the second is, whatever, 84% or so. that 10-2 is better, because with a larger body of work, you are more confident that is a really good team. but when you have equal wins and a much better WP, there is no argument, it seems to me. that SOS would give you the edge if it was close - but 8-4 and 8-1 simply are not that close.
the odds of a 30-0 team going 30-970 are like .00000000001% that would not happen. even could of added some more 0's 
7/30/2013 8:40 PM
OK, point taken.  Sometimes my logic is irrational, just ask my wife.  LOL.  I understand now, TY.  No hard feelings eh.
8/2/2013 3:23 PM
So basically schedule decent teams, but not rlly gd teams that I prolly won't beat?
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