VERY interesting game in D1 Naismith NT last night Topic

I noticed this game in the D1 Naismith NT last night and found it to be very interesting.  To be clear, this game could just be an outlier that tells us nothing, BUT what does this game tell us about the power of IQ in this game engine, especially when it is attached to a FCP defense?

http://whatif.cincinnati.com/hd/GameResults/BoxScore.aspx?gid=10380785

Texas A&M CC has 10 SRs and 2 JRs (http://whatif.cincinnati.com/hd/TeamProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=2519), and although it is a Sim, some of those player are pretty darn good.   Kansas (http://whatif.cincinnati.com/hd/TeamProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=2373) is human coached, is much more athletic, and plays better defense, but they have 6 FR and 2 SOs and a much lower stamina rating vs. that FCP defense.  I would have thought the better talent and a human coach would overcome the better IQs and FCP.

For starters, I have long thought stamina plays a bigger role in deciding the outcome of games than most.  It keeps your better players playing good longer, which in theory should give you an advantage, but when you couple that better stamina with strong IQs vs. weak IQs it appears the engine tipped the scales towards the Sim, at least for this one game.  If you look at who Texas A&M CC lost to during the season, it appears to be mostly team that are at least half upperclassmen and that those players are getting a lot of the minutes.

Kansas wasn't the only good team to fall victim to Texas A&M CC.  They also beat currently #2 ranked Colorado, currently #19 ranked Louisville (who has no SRs), then #18 ranked Cincinnati, and unranked but still talented Arkansas team during nonconference play and lost to both E. Illinois and Baylor in OT.  In conference play they lost to another 12-upperclassmen Sim FCP team (http://whatif.cincinnati.com/hd/TeamProfile/IQ.aspx?tid=2431) and an 11-upperclassmen Sim FCP team (http://whatif.cincinnati.com/hd/TeamProfile/IQ.aspx?tid=2492) in addition to losing twice to the same human coached conference opponent (http://whatif.cincinnati.com/hd/TeamProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=2401) before falling to a human-coached, upperclassmen filled FCP team in the CT final.

This is a fascinating case study to me and I'd be curious to hear what other experienced coaches make of this in terms of what we can learn about the engine from it beyond the obvious (lot's of upperclassmen and high IQs are good, mmkay?).
2/12/2014 1:55 PM (edited)
One thing I will say here: I think this particular case is pretty strong evidence that the engine favors the FCP (assuming a decent mix of players), something I know a lot of coaches believe.
2/12/2014 1:56 PM
I don't think it really says a lot, it's an outlier. The fact that CC has lost 9 games and on the season and isn't very good defensively doesn't really back up anything about the press. If you look at the box score Kansas shot 52% and only turned it over 13 times, which is just 1 more than what they average. The odd things in this game are the rebounding, Kansas' defense, and CC's oddly efficient conversion off turnovers.

Most people agree that the Press hurts rebounding, so for Kansas to get outrebounded in this game despite being much more athletic and the rebound ratings being about even is surprising. Kansas gave up 49% shooting, to a team that shoots lower than that and Kansas only gives up 43% shooting on the season. But the real oddity is how CC converted turnovers to points at a freakish rate. On Kansas' 13 turnovers, CC somehow scored 29 points. I would say the average for poitns off turnovers even for pressing teams is somehwere around 1.2 points per turnover not over 2.

2/12/2014 3:30 PM
I hadn't noticed the points off turnovers.  Very intersting point.  I do find it interesting though that they gave so many good teams a run for the money and beat some very strong teams on the season with all of those upperclassmen.  Perhaps the points off turnovers conversion in the engine is somehow linked to IQ?
2/12/2014 8:10 PM (edited)
Thanks for bringing up a bad memory!
I am the coach for Colorado, the currently #2 ranked team in the country, and this is one of my only losses.

I run press and am 11 deep... Including 2 junior and 3 senior starters, a rarity for me to have that many.
I would love to know why I lost!!! It was early on though, and I didn't really gameplan tons or expect it to even be close. My team averages 831, with 9 players over 800, good in key areas, and decently experienced...
Cc averages 668.

You could argue outlier, but they beat me, Kansas, and a number of other real good teams, so that's a weak argument.
What happened?
2/12/2014 6:05 PM
(My other two losses were at Texas, #2 at the time, and at lsu, #8 at the time.)
2/12/2014 6:07 PM
This makes me happy just because I'm a Kansas State alum, so anytime I see that Kansas loses is a joy.
2/13/2014 9:35 AM
VERY interesting game in D1 Naismith NT last night Topic

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