That might be the most popular upset pick in the short history of sports analytics. 

Posted by thinair on 3/17/2014 8:54:00 PM (view original):

Posted by phillyboy107 on 3/17/2014 8:23:00 PM (view original):
Who are ur guys upset picks? I'm liking Stephen F Austin to make a run, American to beat Wisconsin, and Mercer to pull off a win over Duke due to having an all senior line up. I have some more but those are the bigger ones.

You're crazy. 

not sure i agree w/ the mercer over duke but i can see SFA and American both winning their 1st rd. games.  And as others have stated.. whoever wins between iowa and tenn will win 2 games starting with umass and then taking out DOOK (lets hope anyway).  I hope dayton beats the suckeyes as i could careless if they ever win another game in any sport

Posted by emy1013 on 3/18/2014 3:00:00 AM (view original):

Posted by gillispie1 on 3/17/2014 2:10:00 PM (view original):

Posted by thinair on 3/17/2014 1:59:00 PM (view original):
Louisville and Michigan St might be two of the best #4 seeds ever? I honestly have not watched one florida game all year. I always tend to underestimate them. Why don't you think Florida will win it all?

i agree with the FL comment. they are an exceptionally coached team who works very hard. to me, this allows them to make up for the fact that they aren't the best team, and if one of the dozen or so more talented teams plays a really good game vs them, i'm not sure florida can do anything about it. i think they are like some duke teams of old - they are excellent in terms of consistently performing at the top of their range, which makes them a very good and very consistent team. but in the NT you get a lot of teams' top performances, so i think these exceptionally disciplined hard working teams actually have a disadvantage in the NT, compared to their regular season. 

i agree with michigan st and louisville too... both have a great shot at winning the whole thing

I'd sure love to hear this list of a dozen or so more talented teams than Florida. 

The Duke example is a pretty bad one also.

I agree with gillispie1, Florida is not the most talented team in the field.  Not in the top 40 of scoring, FG%, or 3pt%.  Plus they play in a bad conference.  Here are a list of teams that I THINK are more talented than Florida.  Louisville, Michigan St., Kansa(when healthy), Memphis(as far as talent, can't play a lick of def.), Iowa St., and Arizona.  Just my opinion.  I think the reason Florida wins is because of great def. that turns into easy transition points.

Posted by pureh21 on 3/18/2014 3:33:00 AM (view original):

Posted by thinair on 3/17/2014 8:54:00 PM (view original):

Posted by phillyboy107 on 3/17/2014 8:23:00 PM (view original):
Who are ur guys upset picks? I'm liking Stephen F Austin to make a run, American to beat Wisconsin, and Mercer to pull off a win over Duke due to having an all senior line up. I have some more but those are the bigger ones.

You're crazy. 

not sure i agree w/ the mercer over duke but i can see SFA and American both winning their 1st rd. games.  And as others have stated.. whoever wins between iowa and tenn will win 2 games starting with umass and then taking out DOOK (lets hope anyway).  I hope dayton beats the suckeyes as i could careless if they ever win another game in any sport

Harvard over Cincy.  Oregon over Wisconsin

Anyone else think the American conference is under rated and will get at least 2 of the 4 in the sweet 16?

Posted by phillyboy107 on 3/18/2014 9:33:00 AM (view original):
Anyone else think the American conference is under rated and will get at least 2 of the 4 in the sweet 16?

Well we will see. I saw my USF boys go up against those teams in the tourney. We held our own against Cincy. Memphis, Louisville, and UConn are the ones I will bet on. Sometimes Cincy comes out flat. Not sure why that is but I would expect them to have a off night before the other three.

Posted by emy1013 on 3/18/2014 3:00:00 AM (view original):

Posted by gillispie1 on 3/17/2014 2:10:00 PM (view original):

Posted by thinair on 3/17/2014 1:59:00 PM (view original):
Louisville and Michigan St might be two of the best #4 seeds ever? I honestly have not watched one florida game all year. I always tend to underestimate them. Why don't you think Florida will win it all?

i agree with the FL comment. they are an exceptionally coached team who works very hard. to me, this allows them to make up for the fact that they aren't the best team, and if one of the dozen or so more talented teams plays a really good game vs them, i'm not sure florida can do anything about it. i think they are like some duke teams of old - they are excellent in terms of consistently performing at the top of their range, which makes them a very good and very consistent team. but in the NT you get a lot of teams' top performances, so i think these exceptionally disciplined hard working teams actually have a disadvantage in the NT, compared to their regular season. 

i agree with michigan st and louisville too... both have a great shot at winning the whole thing

I'd sure love to hear this list of a dozen or so more talented teams than Florida. 

The Duke example is a pretty bad one also.

is it? it is really meant as a complement - for a team in the regular season to outperform their level of talent, with hard work and dedication, leading to consistent performance... thats not a bad thing. i just think that advantage is lessened in the post season, as compared to the regular season. to me, the biggest complement is to the coach - billy d did a fantastic job this year, getting the most out of his guys game in and game out (or as close as you realistically get to that unachieveable goal). as much as i hate duke, i can't deny coach k is an excellent coach, and i think of him similarly (well, except for the hating him and all the flopping part)... great at getting the most of of his guys, building work ethic and determination, more than just relying on talent. they are both great game coaches too, something i wish i could say about our coach (coach cal). so if you disagree, im curious what specifically do you disagree about - in these instances, are these two coaches not getting the most out of their guys? are they not getting a level of dedication and consistent effort other coaches fail to exact from their players? or are you disagreeing this advantage is more significant in the regular season than the post season? i mean, you can say, "they have the talent, too", but im not really disagreeing, i just don't think its quite of the 1st class nature - just a little lower, with the slack picked up in the areas mentioned (which to me, frankly, is more respectable - winning on talent is still great because you are winning, but if i had my choice, i'd rather win in any other category)

i know most of my posts citing duke are of the negative variety, but this wasn't one. i always thought of coach k as a guy who generally took the smarter players over the more talented players, the guys who worked hard and earned everything they got. he's had plenty of talented guys... obviously... but i always thought his priorities were a little more geared to the smart hard working guys, than other high end coaches. but if i'm wrong, let me know, i'm more than happy to cross off one of the very few reasons i have some respect for that man :)

If this first game (not counting the 16 seeds) is any indication, this is going to be a terrible tournament. Neither of these teams are any good. This fat white guy for Xavier is hilarious and NC State's senior center is making him look good. When they put in Anya it looks like defensive tackle tryouts. 

Each team has one player that belongs in the tournament and the rest are CBI level. There have to be better teams than this in the NIT.

I run a pool where you basically pick 10 teams and the earn points based on wins and seeds.  It's seed +round*2.

It's a small pool (14 right now) and 42 different teams have been picked.   Last year, there were 28 teams taken, the year before that it was 23. Literally, everyone has taken Louisville but after that it's a big cluster.  I have been doing this for years and most years I cap it at like 15 or everyone's pick end up being the same.  Not this year!

Kentucky over Wichita State and Oklahoma State over Arizona. Two 1-seeds out by round three. 

Other 'upsets' I have (in at least half my brackets): Arizona State over Texas AND over Michigan. Western Michigan over Syracuse. UCONN over Nova. Nebraska over Baylor AND over Creighton. NC State over Saint Louis, and Tennessee over Iowa and over UMASS. 

In one bracket I have Nova falling to Milwaukee. 

Also have NC State meeting Duke in the Elite Eight in one bracket. 

Considering Oklahoma State, Kentucky, and UCONN as dark horses for the Elite Eight, possibly even for the Final Four. Most frequent title game I have is Florida-Duke. 

Posted by sol_phenom3 on 3/19/2014 8:44:00 PM (view original):
Kentucky over Wichita State and Oklahoma State over Arizona. Two 1-seeds out by round three. 

Other 'upsets' I have (in at least half my brackets): Arizona State over Texas AND over Michigan. Western Michigan over Syracuse. UCONN over Nova. Nebraska over Baylor AND over Creighton. NC State over Saint Louis, and Tennessee over Iowa and over UMASS. 

In one bracket I have Nova falling to Milwaukee. 

Also have NC State meeting Duke in the Elite Eight in one bracket. 

Considering Oklahoma State, Kentucky, and UCONN as dark horses for the Elite Eight, possibly even for the Final Four. Most frequent title game I have is Florida-Duke. 

Do you get extra points in your brackets for upsets or something?

Or did you just fill out so many brackets that you can cover all bases?

I just filled out one because I'm a lock to win the billion dollars anyway.

It would be impossible to fill out so many brackets that I could cover all bases. It would be just as difficult to design a computer program to do it for me. 

But yeah, in three of the pools I'm involved in, I get extra points for upsets, akin to tj's scoring system. 

That and I've had a good gut feeling about Tennessee and NC State's 'momentum' going into the tournament. And so far I'm 2 for 2 on NC State and Tennessee technically (because who bothers to remotely pick the other two "first four" games?).  

But now the real tourney begins and we all get to see our brackets demolished equally over time. 

(When W. Mich beats Syracuse or Milwaukee upends Nova, you can thank me...When Kansas falls to Eastern Kentucky or Florida runs out of gas against Pittsburgh, I'll be crying alongside you. 

I've got Florida, Michigan, Michigan St., and Creighton in my final 4. Florida over Michigan for the NT. 

some upsets I have 

- Oklahoma St. all the way to the Elite 8 (over Gonzaga, Arizona, and San Diego St.)
- Tennessee gets an early upset win over U Mass, and I wouldn't be shocked if they beat Duke, though I picked the Blue Devils.
- SF Austin over VCU. 
- New Mexico over Kansas in the round of 32. 

Posted by ettaexpress on 3/18/2014 10:57:00 PM (view original):
If this first game (not counting the 16 seeds) is any indication, this is going to be a terrible tournament. Neither of these teams are any good. This fat white guy for Xavier is hilarious and NC State's senior center is making him look good. When they put in Anya it looks like defensive tackle tryouts. 

Each team has one player that belongs in the tournament and the rest are CBI level. There have to be better teams than this in the NIT.

Tennesee looks and plays ugly, but they are a pretty strong defensive team. I think they're better than you suggest. The Xavier/NC State game, I agree, it looked pretty bad all the way across the board.