Leaving Early for NBA Topic

thewizard17
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Is there a formula or could someone direct me to a link in what determines a player leaving early for the NBA. What percent is ratings? What percent is statistics? Any other factors?

Thanks in advance!
4/15/2014 2:30 PM
kmasonbx1
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0%statistics. 85% ratings, 15% chance. The stats are the only certainty, it was taken out of the equation to prevent coaches from holding their players stats down so they wouldn't leave early. The equation is almost entirely based on ratings now, but sometimes you luck out and keep a guy or the opposite happens. Players are supposed to have personalities which presumably plays a role if a guy leaves. But I just chalk that up to chance.
4/15/2014 4:47 PM
thewizard17
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Posted by kmasonbx1 on 4/15/2014 4:47:00 PM (view original):
0%statistics. 85% ratings, 15% chance. The stats are the only certainty, it was taken out of the equation to prevent coaches from holding their players stats down so they wouldn't leave early. The equation is almost entirely based on ratings now, but sometimes you luck out and keep a guy or the opposite happens. Players are supposed to have personalities which presumably plays a role if a guy leaves. But I just chalk that up to chance.
I appreciate the post, very helpful. Being an inexperienced D-1 coach and not coaching at that level in several years, I was holding back my players, but this is really good to know.

When you say personalities, would any of the emails that are sent to you by the player during recruiting give any hints?

4/15/2014 10:41 PM
thinair
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I heard GPA's mentioned before. But don't take that as fact. I have zero experience. 
4/16/2014 2:05 AM
giles21
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oh...I thought awards had an impact on draft status (which would include stats obviously)...have I really been that oblivious for so long?  I'm guessing that's an easy yes.  **** it though, I'll do what I can to enjoy my current season at UGA in Tark to inflate a single player's stats.  I think that officially qualifies as a tantrum.
4/16/2014 2:32 AM
dacj501
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Posted by giles21 on 4/16/2014 2:32:00 AM (view original):
oh...I thought awards had an impact on draft status (which would include stats obviously)...have I really been that oblivious for so long?  I'm guessing that's an easy yes.  **** it though, I'll do what I can to enjoy my current season at UGA in Tark to inflate a single player's stats.  I think that officially qualifies as a tantrum.
not quite a full-fledged tantrum, lets call it a tant.
4/16/2014 9:36 AM
giles21
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 could be worse. saved by a few inches.
4/16/2014 10:18 AM
kmasonbx
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Seble posted that he had severely reduced the impact of awards on draft positioning. He had said in the past if a player won NPOY he was nearly a certainity to be drafted number 1, I can attest to this as I had a guy drafted number 1 who probably didn't deserve to be drafted but he won NPOY playing in a weak conference.
4/16/2014 10:21 AM
dacj501
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Posted by kmasonbx on 4/16/2014 10:21:00 AM (view original):
Seble posted that he had severely reduced the impact of awards on draft positioning. He had said in the past if a player won NPOY he was nearly a certainity to be drafted number 1, I can attest to this as I had a guy drafted number 1 who probably didn't deserve to be drafted but he won NPOY playing in a weak conference.
so are you saying that before seble reduced the impact your NPOY was#1 or after? 
4/16/2014 10:34 AM
giles21
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Well a severely reduced impact of awards on draft positioning still leaves an impact of awards on draft positioning.  If that is the case, then stats still do play a part...
4/16/2014 11:05 AM
stewdog
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I have an average of 3.5 players drafted a year in Iba over  the last 20 seasons. 
Here's what I have seen...

* Stats are irrelevant. Awards are also irrelevant. 
* Potential and ratings matter more than anything (75%?)
* Your team's success also matters. If you make a deep NT run, the chance of your players getting drafted increases significantly, esp past sweet 16. I think this is about 10-15% of the formula. Good news: you can't lose more than 6 total (seniors, transfers, and draftees) unless you have more than 6 seniors. So if you have a stud underclassman or two but a lot of seniors, you could keep them longer than you would normally expect. 
* random player personalities are the rest (10-15%). You can tell these by the responses you get during recruiting, sometimes by grades and work ethic. When you get a kind of player the administration enjoys, they don't leave as easily as the guys who are begging for handouts during recruiting and talk in ubonics. 

It is not an exact science, and it really isn't IRL either. Guys leave way too early in real life and some players occasionally come back that could go top 15. 

I agree with the early posts here, but PLEASE ADD TEAM SUCCESS to the equation. 
After they decide to come out, its totally based on ratings as to where they are drafted. 
4/16/2014 11:36 AM
stewdog
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Let me add a couple things: 
* Class matters relative to where the player is projected to go. 
In other words, a freshman projected outside the first round won't go, though a junior might. 
If you're a projected top 10 pick and a freshman, you have a 70% chance you'll go; sophomore in the top round might be 75% chance, 90% chance if they're top 10.

Does this make sense? 
I don't presume to know exact numbers, but this is another factor. 
4/16/2014 11:45 AM
girt25
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I think stewdog has it pretty well nailed, except for the inclusion of "potential" which does not play a role.
All America recognition/national awards also do impact things. Conference recognition/awards do not.

4/16/2014 1:13 PM
tkimble
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Something people haven't already mentioned: Your prestige makes a difference.  Higher prestige, more likely to go (and get drafted higher).  
4/16/2014 1:33 PM
girt25
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Sorry, I was lumping that into "team success".
4/16/2014 3:30 PM
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