Trying to get a feel for the draft big board after the Naismith and Tark title games. Last night I had four players declare from my Stanford team in Tark(21-10. 2nd rd - yes we underachieved). One was in the likely going category and was not a surprise. The other three were all on the fence and were ranked 38, 58, and 62 on the board. I did not have any draftable players in Naismith.

Can others share if their on the fence players stayed or declared? Also did anyone have a likely going player stay or a likely staying player declare?

Posted by colonels19 on 5/28/2014 7:50:00 PM (view original):
I agree with a list of 100 guys, 60 draft picks...2 off the board go...c'mon...

Posted by mullycj on 5/29/2014 6:27:00 AM (view original):
Unlike announcement day, this draft board is supposed to tell you what is going to happen.

This would be like a team ranked #4 on the Projection report getting a #4 seed in the NT.    

Posted by dacj501 on 5/29/2014 10:51:00 AM (view original):

Posted by mullycj on 5/29/2014 6:27:00 AM (view original):
Unlike announcement day, this draft board is supposed to tell you what is going to happen.

This would be like a team ranked #4 on the Projection report getting a #4 seed in the NT.    

no, its not. the board is supposed to indicate (roughly) the odds of something happening. There is still a random factor. 

Posted by buddhagamer on 5/29/2014 12:37:00 PM (view original):
Perhaps it would be better if the board updated during the post-season such that its less of a shock to users when a kid goes from "Likely staying" to go EE...

Posted by jdno on 5/29/2014 1:42:00 PM (view original):
I thought it did update in that manner already.

No, I don't think the team success portion of the projection (which I believe is a very large proportion of the likelyhood of them going EE) is never reflected on the board ever.  This is why some teams doing poorly and not reaching the post season at all still have players which still are listed as "Likely going" but don't go after the season is over (although that still could be the RNG being kind to them).

If you monitor your draft board while the NT/PIT are in progress, you'll notice that none of the players move in position or outlook once the CT finalists are determined.

Posted by jdno on 5/29/2014 3:42:00 PM (view original):
what I meant was a situation where a kid might be "on the fence" to start the season then by the end he's "likely going" or something besides "on the fence", before the national awards and team success gets factored in

Well yes as the player's ratings improve, his outlook/position will update during the course of the season.  However, if a large proportion of his chance to leave is based on team success, I don't think the outlook would ever reflect that (i.e. it doesn't portray anything different for his outlook if his team is 0-27 or if it is 27-0).  The only time it considers team success is after the season is done (which might come as a shock if people are trying to use the board as a gauge to see how many openings they'll have come next recruiting cycle).

Maybe its better to just view the board as a recruiting tool to help you determine who might leave on your team prior to recruiting and ignore it otherwise.