This board should obviously be more concrete than real life...again...c'mon

Posted by colonels19 on 5/29/2014 7:42:00 PM (view original):
This board should obviously be more concrete than real life...again...c'mon

Is this the real life?

Is this just fantasy?

easy come easy go

mamxet, you were out of turn there ;)...it's...

caught in a landslide...

Posted by colonels19 on 5/29/2014 7:42:00 PM (view original):
This board should obviously be more concrete than real life...again...c'mon

I have no issue with it being more concrete, if that is what they want ...

But I also have no problem with it being like the "Talking Heads" on ESPN / Fox Sports 1  ...  So it gives  you an indication of who are the most likely candidates and what the likely odds are of someone going or not going.  And the reality is that 1 or 2 who are not on the board go and some who are likely stay.

Also remember that there are rules about how many can go from an individual team, etc.  That is not going to be calculated on the board, etc.

I had a guy on the fence at 82 leave. And he should but I'm still not happy. Made the F4 so that's part of it.

Posted by colonels19 on 5/29/2014 9:13:00 PM (view original):
mamxet, you were out of turn there ;)...it's...

caught in a landslide...

I stand corrected!

;-)

2 not even listed is VERY unrealistic. 

didn't we already know that players were given some probability and then the game ran through rolling dice until it filled up? or at least, we assumed it worked that way? i don't know what the issue is - going past 100 does not surprise me at all. i thought they would go past more, to be honest. there are a lot of players who are fairly low probability of leaving, and a bunch of the mid to high probability ones end up staying. in a setup like that, with 64 draft picks, going past 100 seems pretty easy - no? some years you might not, because dice rolls cause more higher ranked players to leave. other years, you might have dice rolls cause more to stay, and have more people go who are past 100.

I think it will be very interesting to watch this over time.  I think this sort of information should be fuzzy, subject to uncertainty.  And I think there should be a modest number of surprises. 

I bet - but of course dont know - that there have been such surprises for a long time - we just didnt know.  Events that are the equivalent of rolling three sixes with the old stratomatic dice....or whatever.....

Posted by fd343ny on 5/30/2014 1:26:00 PM (view original):
I think it will be very interesting to watch this over time.  I think this sort of information should be fuzzy, subject to uncertainty.  And I think there should be a modest number of surprises. 

I bet - but of course dont know - that there have been such surprises for a long time - we just didnt know.  Events that are the equivalent of rolling three sixes with the old stratomatic dice....or whatever.....

there have been... i studied the early entries closely right when seble came out with them, there have been some crazy guys who stayed, and some mediocre guys who left, even since he made his changes. i figured there were more like 200 players who had >0% chance of leaving. actually, maybe there are, i guess its hard to know, those less than top 100 guys can't be very likely to leave at all - if its only 2% chance each, you'd need 100 of them to have 2 on average (didn't someone say there were 2 off board EEs in both worlds?). anyway, when i did my analysis, it seemed to be pretty clear that there were some players with very low % chances of leaving early, which i hadn't expected - i sort of figured whomever the worst player who could leave was, would maybe be 10%, but it seems there is a much longer tail than i expected (if you consider the graph of quality of player in draft order, over % chance to leave, which basically resembles the left half of a flatish parabola, it seems to me).

Posted by gillispie1 on 5/30/2014 12:24:00 PM (view original):
didn't we already know that players were given some probability and then the game ran through rolling dice until it filled up? or at least, we assumed it worked that way? i don't know what the issue is - going past 100 does not surprise me at all. i thought they would go past more, to be honest. there are a lot of players who are fairly low probability of leaving, and a bunch of the mid to high probability ones end up staying. in a setup like that, with 64 draft picks, going past 100 seems pretty easy - no? some years you might not, because dice rolls cause more higher ranked players to leave. other years, you might have dice rolls cause more to stay, and have more people go who are past 100.

Only 60 draft picks.

My simulated SMith draft currently shows the final pick being the 90th ranked player.    So 2 out of the top 100 could happen but I dont think it would be probable.

But keep in mind, the Big Board does not reflect some nonrandom effects

1. National awards
2. Team success
3. Constraint on the aggregate number of graduates+EE for a team

Those will make some guys in the top 100 unavailable as EE and will move others up and down.

And then we have randomness.