Anyone ever glance at Bill James'
formula for determining whether a game is out of reach? It's pretty interesting, I thought, and seems to be pretty effective.
For those who don't want to click the link, here's what you do:
*Take the current margin
*Subtract 2.5 if the trailing team has the ball or 3.5 if the leading team has the ball.
*Square the result.
*Compare that result to the number of seconds remaining. If your result is higher, the lead is safe.
James says that he's never seen a game where this formula is wrong, and he's only heard of one: a Duke/UNC game several years before the hire of Coach K, where the Blue Devils blew an eight-point lead in 19 seconds.
I had never seen one in WIS until last night, when Whittier blew a nine-point lead with under 30 seconds to go in Allen. Plugging in a nine-point lead without the ball into the formula, we get (9-3.5)^2, which is 30.25. So the lead should've been safe if there were under 30 seconds to go. It wasn't. Here's how it was lost:
00:29 Whittier leads by 9, 57-48
00:24. Ithaca hits a three, now trails 57-51
00:21. Whittier misses the front end of a one-and-one, Ithaca rebounds.
00:15. Ithaca hits a three, now trails 57-54.
00:14. Whittier makes two free throws, leads 59-54.
00:12. Whittier commits a foul in the backcourt, like idiots, Ithaca hits two free throws, trails 59-56.
00:09. Whittier makes one of two free throws, leads 60-56.
00:07. Whittier fouls in the backcourt again, Ithaca makes two free throws, trails 60-58.
00:06. Whittier makes one of two free throws, leads 61-58.
00:00. Ithaca hits a three. Game is tied at 61. Ithaca wins in OT.
So basically, Whittier went 4/7 from the line in the last 21 seconds, allowed Ithaca to go 3/3 from beyond the arc in the last 24 seconds, and fouled twice in the backcourt, allowing Ithaca to score four points with no time running off the clock.
Does anyone have another game where the Bill James formula didn't work? This is the worst I've seen, but I'm sure there's worse out there.
Also, does anyone else think there should be an option for FCP teams to drop their pressure back to the halfcourt line without having to switch defenses entirely and get the associated IQ hit? Because fouling in the backcourt with less than 15 seconds to go and a two-possession lead is stupid as stupid can be.