Posted by jetwildcat on 7/15/2014 3:59:00 PM (view original):
If you look at the last four seasons (1st-4th most recent), you have:
1st - 17W + 0NT to 25W + 1NT
2nd - 23W + 1NT to 17W + 0NT
3rd - 22W + 2NT to 23W + 1NT
4th - 25W + 1NT to 22W + 2NT
Which goes
1st (+8W +1NT)
2nd (-6W -1NT)
3rd (+1W -1NT)
4th (-3W +1NT)
And somehow, that equation comes out to a negative prestige difference. If the last 4 seasons are equal, it would be the same. But we know they're weighted, but somehow 2nd season and 4th season back combine to be worth more than 1st and 3rd. Something's funky here or there's a factor we don't understand. Is the CT worth something?
d1 is not based on 4 seasons. that said, it does look strange, but we already know the last season is not profoundly important in d1 anymore. it looks like the last few (3) seasons, they must weigh pretty similarly, and then it starts to become "old news". that 2NT probably just dropped off in importance significantly, without the last season NT miss changing in importance much.