I just had a Freshman that's listed as "staying" on the draft outlook leave early. Can anyone explain to me what exactly is the information value of the draft outlook, especially between "likely staying" and "staying?"

Outlook does not include the impact of post season results.

A trip to the NC game will likely sway kids to the dark side even if they were listed as staying the entire season.

and does not take into account national honors - was he an all american?

I believe the most important aspect of the draft big board isn't the overall rank on the board but rather the rank at the player's specific position. The draft outlook is a nice window dressing and can give you some idea as to where player may be leaning but I don't think it is nearly as accurate as physically breaking the players down by position. Postseason success does have some hidden sway however I think that it might be overvalued by some.

I always thought the draft outlook was a probability simulator for EE, along the lines of likely going has 85-99% chance of leaving early, on the fence is 35-85%, likely staying is 1-35%, and staying = 0%. I was hoping this was the kind of response that CS would give where they would tell me staying actually is 0-5% depending on position ranking, postseason, etc., and my guy was a 5% kind of player that got the tail end of the simulation.

But that doesn't seem to be the case from my ticket's responses. 

Posted by tianyi7886 on 8/4/2014 5:29:00 PM (view original):
I always thought the draft outlook was a probability simulator for EE, along the lines of likely going has 85-99% chance of leaving early, on the fence is 35-85%, likely staying is 1-35%, and staying = 0%. I was hoping this was the kind of response that CS would give where they would tell me staying actually is 0-5% depending on position ranking, postseason, etc., and my guy was a 5% kind of player that got the tail end of the simulation.

But that doesn't seem to be the case from my ticket's responses. 

What did CS tell you? If it's not indicative of a probability of leaving then is draft outlook just useless?

It's all about final ranking on the draft big board. 

I have had two players leave early from my Colorado team in Phelan that were NOT EVEN LISTED on the draft big board at the end of the season. One of those years we made the Elite 8 and lost our PG.  The next year we lost our SG, who was playing point. Neither had been on the board EVER. 

A little off topic but ive been checking in my world.  Has anyone seen a lower division player listed on the draft board?

I noticed that same thing.  Not one player from a small conference in the top 100?  Seriously?

At least in some worlds, I have seen a few non BCS kids on the big board

Posted by tianyi7886 on 8/4/2014 7:43:00 PM (view original):
It's all about final ranking on the draft big board. 

so what is the conclusion - does staying not mean staying for sure? or did you have honors/post season success that moved your guy up in actuality?

The guy had no honors, 2.7 ppg, 5.3rpg. It's all based on final draft board rankings. Outlook doesn't mean anything from the CC response. It really doesn't make much sense to even have the outlook on there. 

I know the tendency is to draw hard lines and use absolutes...but there is a small correlation with the outlook and positioning within the rankings for the prospects that gives me a small guideline for how the process works if I avoid placing rigid boundaries.  Or at least that's what I tell myself.

Posted by giles21 on 8/5/2014 4:01:00 PM (view original):
I know the tendency is to draw hard lines and use absolutes...but there is a small correlation with the outlook and positioning within the rankings for the prospects that gives me a small guideline for how the process works if I avoid placing rigid boundaries.  Or at least that's what I tell myself.

Sure, but it's worth noting that staying on the outlook doesn't mean the kid will stay.