I know not 100% of recruits or even 75% of recruits pan out as planned, but what exactly constitutes potential dropping or is it completely random?  Or are their certain factors like play time/work ethic/practice time that can help/hurt potential?

From looking at a recruits potential and factoring in their work ethic, you can pretty accurately project how much a player will grow.  The only real grey area is with high potential, as that can mean anywhere from 21 to 90 points of growth.  If you're finding a lot of your recruits aren't panning out, you should re-evaluate your own evaluation methods and expectations.

As for your other question, a recruits potential is something they are "born" with.  No other factors else can make the players potential change from what it was generated with.

Good answer above.  What unexpected changes are you seeing?

I have a related question, If a recruit is about a 30 WE and he has solid potentials (Mix of highs and averages) Is he going to require heavy starts because as of right now he's on my 2 on and 2 off plan, (2 seasons on the bench Fr SO and 2 seasons starting Jr SR) I worry if he will ever max anything out, his exact WE is 27

here is one example from my PG with a WE of 52, and original of 49

he was a 64 with Blue potential(high/low expected 20-27 growth), but turned black potential at 69 or only after 5 growth

he was 27 defense blue potential(high/high expected 28 growth), but turned black potential at  39 or after 12 growth

he was 44 passing blue potential(high/low expected 20-27 growth), but turned black potential at 49 or after 5 growth

here is another example from my new C with WE of 82

he was 12 speed blue potential(high/low expected 20-27 growth), but turned black potential at 13 or after 1 growth

he was 19 perimeter blue potential(high/low expected 20-27 growth), but turned black potential at 20 or after 1 growth.

all expected growths are from evaluating scouting reports and seeing whether blue potential is high/high for the skill meaning 28+ potential or high/low potential which should be 20-27 growth.

so because of this I am not sure if potential is something that is never 100% exact like in real life and if so what factors can help achieve it.

Posted by bagger288 on 8/28/2014 5:16:00 PM (view original):
I have a related question, If a recruit is about a 30 WE and he has solid potentials (Mix of highs and averages) Is he going to require heavy starts because as of right now he's on my 2 on and 2 off plan, (2 seasons on the bench Fr SO and 2 seasons starting Jr SR) I worry if he will ever max anything out, his exact WE is 27

27 is actually exactly as low as I've ever gone in recent years, and that's only when I have a very young team and can give him significant playing time right away (even as a backup is fine). If he has 5+ high categories and some average ones as well, it's almost guaranteed he's not going to max all of them out by his senior year, but he could get to 80-90% of his potential - if you invest minutes in him early.

Posted by the0nlyis on 8/28/2014 5:22:00 PM (view original):
here is one example from my PG with a WE of 52, and original of 49

he was a 64 with Blue potential(high/low expected 20-27 growth), but turned black potential at 69 or only after 5 growth

he was 27 defense blue potential(high/high expected 28 growth), but turned black potential at  39 or after 12 growth

he was 44 passing blue potential(high/low expected 20-27 growth), but turned black potential at 49 or after 5 growth

here is another example from my new C with WE of 82

he was 12 speed blue potential(high/low expected 20-27 growth), but turned black potential at 13 or after 1 growth

he was 19 perimeter blue potential(high/low expected 20-27 growth), but turned black potential at 20 or after 1 growth.

all expected growths are from evaluating scouting reports and seeing whether blue potential is high/high for the skill meaning 28+ potential or high/low potential which should be 20-27 growth.

so because of this I am not sure if potential is something that is never 100% exact like in real life and if so what factors can help achieve it.

Like bro_lunardi said, potential is a fixed amount of possible growth - nothing you do affects their max cap. All of the 5 line items you mentioned above fit the expected growth. You got unlucky on lines 4 and 5, lucky on 1 and 3 (26 pts of growth on high-low categories), and did pretty well on 2 (33 pts of growth for a high-high).

Posted by bhansalid00 on 8/28/2014 5:28:00 PM (view original):

Posted by the0nlyis on 8/28/2014 5:22:00 PM (view original):
here is one example from my PG with a WE of 52, and original of 49

he was a 64 with Blue potential(high/low expected 20-27 growth), but turned black potential at 69 or only after 5 growth

he was 27 defense blue potential(high/high expected 28 growth), but turned black potential at  39 or after 12 growth

he was 44 passing blue potential(high/low expected 20-27 growth), but turned black potential at 49 or after 5 growth

here is another example from my new C with WE of 82

he was 12 speed blue potential(high/low expected 20-27 growth), but turned black potential at 13 or after 1 growth

he was 19 perimeter blue potential(high/low expected 20-27 growth), but turned black potential at 20 or after 1 growth.

all expected growths are from evaluating scouting reports and seeing whether blue potential is high/high for the skill meaning 28+ potential or high/low potential which should be 20-27 growth.

so because of this I am not sure if potential is something that is never 100% exact like in real life and if so what factors can help achieve it.

Like bro_lunardi said, potential is a fixed amount of possible growth - nothing you do affects their max cap. All of the 5 line items you mentioned above fit the expected growth. You got unlucky on lines 4 and 5, lucky on 1 and 3 (26 pts of growth on high-low categories), and did pretty well on 2 (33 pts of growth for a high-high).

because of this is it possible for a recruit who is red potential to experience large growth and move into black/blue potential? or can potential only go down?

Potential can only go down.  A player who has a red stat will never, ever improve more than 7 points.  Sometimes a player will lose a couple points and their potential will change from red to black because of that, but that doesn't change what their max cap in that attribute is.

Posted by bro_lunardi on 8/28/2014 6:00:00 PM (view original):
Potential can only go down.  A player who has a red stat will never, ever improve more than 7 points.  Sometimes a player will lose a couple points and their potential will change from red to black because of that, but that doesn't change what their max cap in that attribute is.

it seems weird that way, obviously there are more cases of players not reaching potential, but there is a precedent of underrated players going above what was considered their "max potential"


thanks for clearing that up everyone.

Posted by the0nlyis on 8/28/2014 5:36:00 PM (view original):

Posted by bhansalid00 on 8/28/2014 5:28:00 PM (view original):

Posted by the0nlyis on 8/28/2014 5:22:00 PM (view original):
here is one example from my PG with a WE of 52, and original of 49

he was a 64 with Blue potential(high/low expected 20-27 growth), but turned black potential at 69 or only after 5 growth

he was 27 defense blue potential(high/high expected 28 growth), but turned black potential at  39 or after 12 growth

he was 44 passing blue potential(high/low expected 20-27 growth), but turned black potential at 49 or after 5 growth

here is another example from my new C with WE of 82

he was 12 speed blue potential(high/low expected 20-27 growth), but turned black potential at 13 or after 1 growth

he was 19 perimeter blue potential(high/low expected 20-27 growth), but turned black potential at 20 or after 1 growth.

all expected growths are from evaluating scouting reports and seeing whether blue potential is high/high for the skill meaning 28+ potential or high/low potential which should be 20-27 growth.

so because of this I am not sure if potential is something that is never 100% exact like in real life and if so what factors can help achieve it.

Like bro_lunardi said, potential is a fixed amount of possible growth - nothing you do affects their max cap. All of the 5 line items you mentioned above fit the expected growth. You got unlucky on lines 4 and 5, lucky on 1 and 3 (26 pts of growth on high-low categories), and did pretty well on 2 (33 pts of growth for a high-high).

because of this is it possible for a recruit who is red potential to experience large growth and move into black/blue potential? or can potential only go down?

here's the way potential really works. a recruit is generated with TWO values for every rating - their starting rating, and their max rating. potential is simply the difference between the max rating and the starting rating. for example, if a player starts with 58 per, and a max per rating of 81, his potential is 23 points of growth, which gets displayed as blue, and which gets a low-high response in scouting trip responses. the starting and max ratings are generated at the beginning, and the max rating can never change.

also, the intervals used to calculate which color to show, they never change either. low potential is 0-6 points of growth. medium is 7-20, and high is 21+. so, if a player starts with a starting rating of 50 with high potential, and hes blue at say 54 points but black at 55, well, now you know he had 21 points left at 54 and 20 left at 55, so he must have a max of 75 points.

nothing you can ever do can change a player's max rating, but many players never hit their max ratings. most get close, like a couple points away or something, but some guys with lots of potential or not much work ethic, won't ever experience all of their growth.