I absolutely 100% disagree with your number 1 above. I almost always pull down the player I'm after as soon as I possibly can. Sometimes a bigger school swoops in and takes him, oh well that's a risk I take. But often, if a school is being considered by a player, it "scares" other coaches away, particularly those who are hesitant to battle. Also those coaches who WILL battle, but are outgunned (i.e., don't have enough cash/open schollies) won't attempt to recruit the player because they know it's a losing proposition (unless, of course, they're just ***** who are getting ready to quit and want to screw up someone else's team by killing their recruiting class. It's certainly happened before). Again, just my personal opinion, but I very, very much disagree with number one.
Also, the game isn't necessarily won during recruiting, but it can certainly be lost there.