BearDown

I don't really look at it as 67 teams versus 1...rather just a few teams versus 1. I figure that Kentucky will win their first 2 games relatively easily...obviously this means they are in the Sweet 16. Still, I don't see this as 15 teams versus Kentucky. I am judging it by the ability of a remaining team being able to win against Kentucky in a one game showdown. In the Sweet 16 matchup, I do not see any teams that Lunardi projects as a 5 or 5 seed being able to hang with Kentucky for 40 minutes. That brings us down to the Elite 8. Although any one of these teams could possibly play the game of their lives and win against Kentucky, I would never pick the other team in the one-on-one team matchup. Therefore, as much as I may not want it to happen, I see Kentucky winning it all.
Arizona is really loaded and could be the best matchup to slug it out with Kentucky. They are long and athletic. With that said, I could envision them getting beat before the matchup could take place, as they have had a couple of uninspiring games this season.
I saw Villanova play this weekend and they are really, really good. They have several guys that can hit contested NBA range 3 point shots, and have terrific offensive rebounding for 2nd chance points. The only weakness I see is they are not quite as strong defensively inside as a Kentucky or an Arizona. If you are looking for a team not seeded #1 to make a run, this may be the team...although they could still get a #1 seed if they win out and win the Big East Tourney.

I'm a Kentucky fan and the teams I fear are Arizona, Villanova and Kansas.  True, we defeated Kansas 72-40 in November...that's why i fear a rematch

I believe their only weakness is inexperience, and maybe 3 pt. shooting.  But these days, inexperience doesn't mean much in college basketball.

Posted by skinndogg on 3/2/2015 11:19:00 AM (view original):

I believe their only weakness is inexperience, and maybe 3 pt. shooting.  But these days, inexperience doesn't mean much in college basketball.

And their 3 point shooting is not really bad.  Booker is outstanding, Aaron Harrison is streaky .. but he hit those 3 monster three's in route to the Championship Game last season, Ulis is very good at shooting 3's.  Andrew Harrison has been knocking down 3's lately too.

Kentucky.

i dont think anyone is going to argue against the idea that Kentucky is a great team.
and I suspect very few would argue against them as the favorite (and those few are probably mostly biased)

but,  to take them agaisnt the field is an entirely different matter.
bob makes a great point that it is not 1 against 67.  but i think (my opinion) that bob is underestimating the likelihood of upsets.

i'll give bob round 1 (or whatever the heck they want to call kentuckys first game)... i gotta put the odds very close to 100%  in favor of kentucky winning that one.
but even starting in the round of 32,  i feel like some 8 or 9 seeds, if they get hot and kentucky plays bad,  has some chance of winning.     both A&M and ole miss took Kentucky to OT.   I dont think either is going to make the tourney and i know for dang sure that they wont be 8 or 9 seed.   

now you may say that kentucky will bring thier A game since its the big dance,  but you never know and i say if they get in an OT game with an 8 or 9 seed,  there will be a heckuva lot of pressure on them.

still,  im not saying Kentucky will get beat in round of 32,  just that their is slim chance they could... I say 5%
similar thoguhts for sweet16.  i just cant go with the idea that they are 100% to win in sw 16. (as bob seems to suggest)  I say 10% chance of losing.
and , just for symmetry , lets say they have 15% chance of losing in E8
20% chance of losing in f4
and 25% chance of losing in final game.

if you buy those odds,  they "only"   44% chance of winning it all.

I happen to think their chances of losing are maybe even a little higher than what ive listed above,   but even if you could convicne me that it was roughly 50/50 kentucky versus the field... i would go with the field becuase when you look at the history of the big dance,  shithappens.   what happens more often,  that there are so few upsets that it surprises you?  or that there are so many upsets or such big upsets that you are surprised?   


To me,  i feel like Georgetown 1985 and Unlv 1991 were at least as much of a "lock" as kentucky is this year,  and we know how those stories ended.

Also a big favorite was undefeated Indiana in 1975. They lost to Kentucky in the Elite Eight after defeating them by 24 earlier in the season.  In the Hoosiers' defense, their best player, Scott May, broke his arm in the last regular season game.

I really didn't think Kentucky would still be undefeated after losing Alex Poythress to injury. He was arguably their best defender, if not their best player

The difficulty in answering this question is are you a gambler, or do you like to bet.  For me, I think Kentucky will win it all, but if I had to make this bet, I would pick the field.  Its all about value.

Georgetown in 1985, quite possibly.  UNLV in 1991 was fabulous, but that Duke team was pretty dang talented too.  I'm not sure any other team gets that close to UK in talent as Duke did with UNLV.  And that UNLV squad is probably my favorite of all time.

I'm normally a "take the field" guy but I think Kentucky is just that much better than everyone else, or will be when they have to be.

Posted by cburton23 on 3/2/2015 12:30:00 PM (view original):
The difficulty in answering this question is are you a gambler, or do you like to bet.  For me, I think Kentucky will win it all, but if I had to make this bet, I would pick the field.  Its all about value.

It would, of course, depend on the odds I was receiving for each. But this ^^^

I hate Kentucky with a passion. Calipari is a cheater at every school he's coached and still is today. Of course they have the best team, but when **** gets hot he'll leave and Kentucky will be on probation just like UMASS and Memphis and they will be back to being normal again. I hope they lose in the 1st round

I am pretty sure Kentucky won't win it this year. They lack the star they had when they won, Anthony Davis. I am looking for Duke to put it together or a Virginia or Wisconsin team, with their experience, to whether the storm against them and win it. Kentucky is going to the final four though.

Oldave your points are great and very valid. I do not think I have ever bet against the 'field' before. I am trying to eliminate the 'noise' of the majority of teams that will not win. Even though it is Kentucky versus don't like any other team in a single, 40 minute contest. Arizona may give them the best physical matchup; Villanova may be their toughest basketball IQ challenge. But, with all that said, Kentucky was forced to OT against inferior teams, so none of us should be surprised if they fall...even, as Oldave mentions, if it happens in their 2nd game. Makes for great theatre!