Looking at the way it is for my IUPUI team, I think there are different type of longshots.
Arkansas D+ team, longshot : probably a longer shot than some other schools
Hawaii C- team, longshot, if they hired you, and it's a big if...
St-Bonaventure, C team, it's not improbable to get this team, but don't come crying if they say no.
St-Joes (last year), D, you could have a shot at this job depending on other applicants and how the interview goes.
I applied to Arkansas, got rejected right away.
I applied to Hawaii, got rejected right away.
I won't apply to St-Bonaventure. But I think it's a better longshot. And St-Joes last year was a good one but a better team came before me.