Who wins the AFC Championship? Topic

Posted by gillispie1 on 1/26/2016 1:10:00 PM (view original):
bis, what was that one year when brady had an absolutely god awful set of receivers, and he still was able to put up some pretty impressive stats? i think it was like right before they got moss, maybe in the late 00s or something? i remember NE had a ****** off season and the receivers were all these guys nobody heard of, and still, their passing game was above average in the NFL. i could be off on the details, but i'm curious what your take on that season was. it seems to be a decent counter example to your claim, to me. i'm not a big brady fan but i thought that was a pretty convincing display that he is one of the better QBs in the league. 
Brady's early career was built on a foundation of a solid and often great offensive line. He's had very few years where the line wasn't good (this happens to be one of the down seasons when the line was in flux somewhat, but it still did fine overall, at least until the AFC title game).

The NE coaches have also designed a system and plays to get the ball out of his hands quickly because he can't handle pressure, he's not a good downfield passer, and he isn't fast and elusive or able to shake tackles, the skills often possessed by the actual great NFL QBs.

Comparing Brady to other QBs who have had several years as a starter in the same era shows he doesn't complete as many downfield throws(percentage of throws 20+  and 40+ yards, from stats at NFL.com)

Brady - 14.17, 2.62
P. Manning - 14.42, 2.53
E. Manning - 14.97, 2.98
Roethlisberger - 16.25, 3.39
Kurt Warner* - 15.79, 2.89

Brady throws fewer 20+ completions, percentage wise, than anyone listed here, and fewer 40+ completions than all except Peyton Manning.

Shorter passes are easier to complete, so you'd think Brady would have the highest completion percentage and Roethlisberger would have the worst among the group, given the above stats, and yet that's not the case.

Career Completion percentage (NFL.com):

Brady - 63.6
P. Manning - 65.3
E. Manning - 59.3
Roethlisberger - 64.1
Kurt Warner* - 65.5

On first glance we note Eli Manning doesn't fare nearly as well as the others here. However, it is clear that despite throwing more deep balls, Ben Roethlisberger still completes a higher percentage than Tom Brady. Peyton Manning is most similar to Brady from above, yet he too completes a higher percentage. The now retired Kurt Warner, who threw more deep balls percentage wise than anyone else on the list not named Roethlisberger, has the highest completion percentage of them all.

A great offensive line and some elusiveness have helped Brady. Still, he's not as elusive as some of his contemporaries. Sacks as a percentage of total pass attempts (NFL.com):

Brady - 5.15
P. Manning - 3.23
E. Manning - 4.93
Roethlisberger - 8.10
Kurt Warner* - 6.39

Peyton Manning is notorious for a quick release, so it's not surprising to see his number is lowest. Eli Manning is surprisingly elusive for a QB who doesn't scramble much, and this may account for his lower number. Warner was never fleet of foot, and Roethisberger is all about extending plays and taking hits (and shaking tackles), which accounts for his higher numbers.

Brady gets other benefits from throwing short, quick passes and being a game manager. For example, his statistics indicate his interception percentage is the lowest among all the QBs I've compared him with.  Interceptions occur more often on deeper throws. Also, they occur more often when a QB faces pressure. It is important that this is what a game manager does - keep from screwing up an otherwise talented team.

All in all, not surprisingly, Brady is NOT a horrible QB when compared to his contemporaries, but then, I never said he was horrible. He's a good game manager with great coaching working on talented teams, but he's not one of the greats.

Honestly, if you look at that list, Peyton has so many intangibles he's clearly the best of the group. Kurt Warner is the best (and most accurate) passer of them all. Roethlisberger has a great arm and the ability to shake tackles and extend plays. Eli has some intangibles, is elusive, and has a knack for coming through in the clutch (Brady can testify to that thanks to two SBs).

Yet Brady doesn't have anything that defines him EXCEPT conservative game play and strategy, the key hallmarks of A GAME MANAGER, not a great and talented QB.
1/26/2016 1:54 PM
i was asking about a specific season... i wish i knew which one it was, where brady had a total garbage set of receivers, easily among the worst in the NFL, and he still did really well. none of that addresses that at all.

and seriously man... carson palmer? carson palmer is a better QB than brady? you can't compare a perennial loser like carson to brady. carson has a good arm, and i rooted for him for years on the bengals, but he has zero of that winner mentality, that tenacity and toughness that, well, makes winners winners. no comparison there. there's more to a QB than his arm, you can't just choose which attributes of a QB you care about, its about the package. i think its a VERY reasonable position to say brady is not the best of his era. i don't think you can reasonably say hes below carson palmer. your hatred blinds you.
1/26/2016 8:44 PM
Tom Brady, 3rd most career game winning drives.  I guess he manages a game pretty well.
1/26/2016 8:57 PM
Peyton

Year G GS QBrec Cmp Att Cmp% Yds TD TD% Int Int% Lng Y/A AY/A Y/C Y/G Rate Sk Yds NY/A ANY/A Sk% 4QC GWD AV
Career 266 265 186-79-0 6125 9380 65.3 71940 539 5.7 251 2.7 86 7.7 7.6 11.7 270.5 96.5 303 1953 7.23 7.17 3.1 41 52 269

Brady 

Year G GS QBrec Cmp Att Cmp% Yds TD TD% Int Int% Lng Y/A AY/A Y/C Y/G Rate Sk Yds NY/A ANY/A Sk% 4QC GWD AV
Career 225 223 172-51-0 4953 7792 63.6 58028 428 5.5 150 1.9 99 7.4 7.7 11.7 257.9 96.4 402 2509 6.78 7 4.9 35 46 206

Peyton has 1.7% higher completion percentage, .02% td rate, .3 higher y/a, .01 higher qb rating.  He has 6 more 4th quarter comebacks/gamewinning drives(in more games, Brady has tiny adv in percentage), and Peyton has 1.8% better sack rate.

Brady has better interception rate by .8%

I conced Peyton is the better regular season quarterback probably the greatest regular season quarterback of all time.

Situation of being down with 4 minutes left:

Brady


Value Cmp Att Inc Cmp% Yds TD 1D Int Rate Y/A AY/A Att Yds Y/A TD 1D
Trailing, < 2 min to go 84 161 77 52.17 977 9 53 4 79.1 6.1 6.07 6 28 4.7 0 4
Trailing, < 4 min to go 172 314 142 54.78 1989 19 107 8 83.7 6.3 6.4 12 43 3.6 1 8

Manning

Value Cmp Att Inc Cmp% Yds TD 1D Int Rate Y/A AY/A Att Yds Y/A TD 1D
Trailing, < 2 min to go 131 239 108 54.81 1531 10 87 16 60.5 6.4 4.23 14 83 5.9 2 7
Trailing, < 4 min to go 257 442 185 58.14 3014 23 165 22 75.6 6.8 5.62 16 90 5.6 2 7

Peyton wins completion percentage and yds/attempt.  However Peyton is a joke for td-int ratio and qb rating compared to brady.

Playoffs:

Brady

Year G GS QBrec Cmp Att Cmp% Yds TD TD% Int Int% Lng Y/A AY/A Y/C Y/G Rate Sk Yds NY/A ANY/A Sk% 4QC GWD
Career 31 31 22-9 738 1183 62.4 7957 56 4.7 28 2.4 73 6.7 6.6 10.8 256.7 88 52 341 6.17 6.05 4.2 6 9

Manning


Year G GS QBrec Cmp Att Cmp% Yds TD TD% Int Int% Lng Y/A AY/A Y/C Y/G Rate Sk Yds NY/A ANY/A Sk% 4QC GWD
Career 26 26 13-13 636 1004 63.3 7198 40 4 24 2.4 87 7.2 6.9 11.3 276.8 88.1 35 261 6.68 6.41 3.4 2 2


Brady has better record, more touchdowns(and rate), 4 more 4th quartercomebacks and 7 more game winning drives.
Manning again has completion percentage, yards/attempt, and sack rate.

int rate is same.

Super Bowls:


Brady


Value G W L T Cmp Att Inc Cmp% Yds TD Int Rate Y/A AY/A A/G Y/G
Super Bowl 6 4 2 0 164 247 83 66.4 1605 13 4 95.3 6.5 6.82 41.2 267.5

Manning


Value G W L T Cmp Att Inc Cmp% Yds TD Int Rate Y/A AY/A A/G Y/G
Super Bowl 3 1 2 0 90 132 42 68.18 860 3 4 81 6.52 5.61 44 286.7

Brady destroys Peyton td/int, way better QB rating.  Peyton has better completion percentage and .02 yards/attempt over Brady.

Lesson learned you want some pretty looking stats go with Manning, sure he is probably a better physical and smarter qb.  but Peyton can't put that performance into post season or last few minutes.

Brady
>Manning

1/27/2016 12:33 AM (edited)
Brady is a great QB, but he hasn't won a road playoff game since 2006.  That further illustrates my point from last season.....if they hadn't cheated with Deflategate, New England  wouldn't have been hosting their playoff games and likely wouldn't have won the Super Bowl
1/27/2016 5:29 AM
Posted by the0nlyis on 1/26/2016 1:19:00 PM (view original):
what drugs are you on man seriously this is worse than some of the other threads on here lol.  Did brady sleep with your gf or something, because you just have an irrational hatred for him.

You talk about him being carried lol he doing all the work this season.  Peyton has been garbage this season and is 100% being carried by the Broncos insane defense.

Brady on the Broncos would be undefeated.  Manning on the Pats would maybe manage a 10-6 record if Peyton didn't sit out with injury in this scenario.
From a logical perspective, I think you should keep in mind that I see your position as being just as ridiculous as you see mine. I could ask you what drugs you are on, or if Brady pays you money to say he's great, because you have an irrational love for him.

He has been carried his whole career. He hasn't done the work this season at all. He's got great receivers. Gronkowski is best tight end in football. Edelman and Amendola are born to play the short dink and dunk passing game and run well after the catch.

Peyton has played injured and still did well, and improved upon a not too shabby Osweiler when he returned, even at his age. Sure, there's a good defense. That didn't help him throw the ball.

Brady on the Broncos would have been WORSE as he can't play well in anything other than a game management short passing style offense like in NE. He would have gotten eaten alive trying to throw in the Broncos scheme.

Manning could easily dink and dunk his throws if he were on the Pats. His numbers would be UP because that's an easier system (its designed for the less skiled Brady).

1/27/2016 7:37 AM
Posted by gillispie1 on 1/26/2016 8:45:00 PM (view original):
i was asking about a specific season... i wish i knew which one it was, where brady had a total garbage set of receivers, easily among the worst in the NFL, and he still did really well. none of that addresses that at all.

and seriously man... carson palmer? carson palmer is a better QB than brady? you can't compare a perennial loser like carson to brady. carson has a good arm, and i rooted for him for years on the bengals, but he has zero of that winner mentality, that tenacity and toughness that, well, makes winners winners. no comparison there. there's more to a QB than his arm, you can't just choose which attributes of a QB you care about, its about the package. i think its a VERY reasonable position to say brady is not the best of his era. i don't think you can reasonably say hes below carson palmer. your hatred blinds you.
Of course Carson Palmer is better than Brady. He's always had a better skill set, and its not even close.

You're once again making the mistake of giving Brady credit for winning in NE when any decent NFL QB would have done the same. Palmer in NE wins more games and SBs than Brady did because he has more skills, period.

Face it, Brady doesn't have some sort of mythical "winner's mentality" that Palmer lacks - Brady just played on great Pats teams that carried him to wins and SBs while Palmer played on less talented Bengals (and Cardinals) squads. Switch them and Palmer has more SB rings than Brady, hands down, and Brady is probably out of the league.

I think it's very reasonable to say he's below Carson Palmer because Brady has little in the way of actual skills. He's been propped up every year of his career by a talented team and great coaching with a system tailored to help him due to his considerably less skill than pretty much everyone on my list.

1/27/2016 7:41 AM
Posted by The Taint on 1/26/2016 8:57:00 PM (view original):
Tom Brady, 3rd most career game winning drives.  I guess he manages a game pretty well.
*sarcasm* Yes, because being on talented teams with great coaching and a system designed to take advantage of your very limited skill set had nothing to do with it. *end sarcasm*
1/27/2016 7:42 AM
Posted by the0nlyis on 1/27/2016 12:33:00 AM (view original):
Peyton

Year G GS QBrec Cmp Att Cmp% Yds TD TD% Int Int% Lng Y/A AY/A Y/C Y/G Rate Sk Yds NY/A ANY/A Sk% 4QC GWD AV
Career 266 265 186-79-0 6125 9380 65.3 71940 539 5.7 251 2.7 86 7.7 7.6 11.7 270.5 96.5 303 1953 7.23 7.17 3.1 41 52 269

Brady 

Year G GS QBrec Cmp Att Cmp% Yds TD TD% Int Int% Lng Y/A AY/A Y/C Y/G Rate Sk Yds NY/A ANY/A Sk% 4QC GWD AV
Career 225 223 172-51-0 4953 7792 63.6 58028 428 5.5 150 1.9 99 7.4 7.7 11.7 257.9 96.4 402 2509 6.78 7 4.9 35 46 206

Peyton has 1.7% higher completion percentage, .02% td rate, .3 higher y/a, .01 higher qb rating.  He has 6 more 4th quarter comebacks/gamewinning drives(in more games, Brady has tiny adv in percentage), and Peyton has 1.8% better sack rate.

Brady has better interception rate by .8%

I conced Peyton is the better regular season quarterback probably the greatest regular season quarterback of all time.

Situation of being down with 4 minutes left:

Brady


Value Cmp Att Inc Cmp% Yds TD 1D Int Rate Y/A AY/A Att Yds Y/A TD 1D
Trailing, < 2 min to go 84 161 77 52.17 977 9 53 4 79.1 6.1 6.07 6 28 4.7 0 4
Trailing, < 4 min to go 172 314 142 54.78 1989 19 107 8 83.7 6.3 6.4 12 43 3.6 1 8

Manning

Value Cmp Att Inc Cmp% Yds TD 1D Int Rate Y/A AY/A Att Yds Y/A TD 1D
Trailing, < 2 min to go 131 239 108 54.81 1531 10 87 16 60.5 6.4 4.23 14 83 5.9 2 7
Trailing, < 4 min to go 257 442 185 58.14 3014 23 165 22 75.6 6.8 5.62 16 90 5.6 2 7

Peyton wins completion percentage and yds/attempt.  However Peyton is a joke for td-int ratio and qb rating compared to brady.

Playoffs:

Brady

Year G GS QBrec Cmp Att Cmp% Yds TD TD% Int Int% Lng Y/A AY/A Y/C Y/G Rate Sk Yds NY/A ANY/A Sk% 4QC GWD
Career 31 31 22-9 738 1183 62.4 7957 56 4.7 28 2.4 73 6.7 6.6 10.8 256.7 88 52 341 6.17 6.05 4.2 6 9

Manning


Year G GS QBrec Cmp Att Cmp% Yds TD TD% Int Int% Lng Y/A AY/A Y/C Y/G Rate Sk Yds NY/A ANY/A Sk% 4QC GWD
Career 26 26 13-13 636 1004 63.3 7198 40 4 24 2.4 87 7.2 6.9 11.3 276.8 88.1 35 261 6.68 6.41 3.4 2 2


Brady has better record, more touchdowns(and rate), 4 more 4th quartercomebacks and 7 more game winning drives.
Manning again has completion percentage, yards/attempt, and sack rate.

int rate is same.

Super Bowls:


Brady


Value G W L T Cmp Att Inc Cmp% Yds TD Int Rate Y/A AY/A A/G Y/G
Super Bowl 6 4 2 0 164 247 83 66.4 1605 13 4 95.3 6.5 6.82 41.2 267.5

Manning


Value G W L T Cmp Att Inc Cmp% Yds TD Int Rate Y/A AY/A A/G Y/G
Super Bowl 3 1 2 0 90 132 42 68.18 860 3 4 81 6.52 5.61 44 286.7

Brady destroys Peyton td/int, way better QB rating.  Peyton has better completion percentage and .02 yards/attempt over Brady.

Lesson learned you want some pretty looking stats go with Manning, sure he is probably a better physical and smarter qb.  but Peyton can't put that performance into post season or last few minutes.

Brady
>Manning

First, I need to say that I thin it's ridiculous to compare Brady to Manning, because Manning is just so much better that there is no real comparison.

Having said that, your methods of comparison are incredibly flawed.

Of course Brady does better in some situations because he has had better coaching and plays in a system designed for those situations. Of course he has a better playoff record - he's had more talented teams, better coaching, etc.

I wish Manning had played on the Pats. He'd have ten SB rings. Brady has been propped up his whole career. He is a joke compared to Manning.

1/27/2016 7:46 AM
You can't argue stats with just opinions. Maybe Peyton could win some super bowls if he wasn't a choke artist.
1/27/2016 8:37 AM
I rate quarterbacks (and all players, really) based upon their actual skills and abilities which make a positive difference and contribute to wins for their teams.

I don't care who has more wins or playoff wins or Super Bowls, because those are only so much under each player's control - even a QB. The greatest QB in the history of the world couldn't win the SB by himself.

Comparing Brady to any of the ten QBs I mentioned from the 2015 season, they all possess some above average or great skills and abilities which make a positive difference for their team.

All Brady does is manage the game. He does a good job at it, but he has no superior skills or abilities. Rocket arm? No. Scrambler? Nope. Able to break tackles consistently? Nu-uh. Great downfield passer? Nope. Super elusive? Has his moments, but no. 

He has experience now that he's been playing a while and he's super conservative because that's what his system calls for. That's all he has going for him. It's worked well to win games because he plays on talented teams and has great coaching.

People giving him the credit just because he happens to be the QB. Brady is no more a great QB than Trent Dilfer was the year he "led" the Ravens to the SB title.
1/27/2016 10:02 AM
6 former great NFL receivers all chose Brady over Manning
1/28/2016 6:55 AM
What's your source on that?

Even if true, it only shows that they over rate Brady the same as the talking heads and casual fans.

1/28/2016 7:42 AM
Most of this thread is boring because the value of the QB's you are arguing about is predominantly in their intangibles, and both Brady and Manning are superlative.  However, there was one good laugh buried in the thread:
"Of course Carson Palmer is better than Brady. He's always had a better skill set, and its not even close."
1/28/2016 3:17 PM
Posted by bistiza on 1/28/2016 7:42:00 AM (view original):
What's your source on that?

Even if true, it only shows that they over rate Brady the same as the talking heads and casual fans.

You can not over rate greatness... And it was on the NFL network... They would rather play with Brady because he makes the plays and wins the games Peyton can not... Brady is the ultimate winner
1/28/2016 10:40 PM
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