Posted by the0nlyis on 5/4/2016 5:37:00 PM (view original):
this means there is no cap on A+ then right? so numerically they can just continue going beyond 100 current prestige
I sent a ticket and WIS just said they're some coaches who do qualify.
well, i have known for a while you weren't capped at 100. my question is really about how high you can get. about 2 years ago, i had a little run at kansas, with 2 titles and 2 runner ups in 5 years. had some nice draft classes and that can yield some pretty lofty prestige, being an a+ baseline program. that was my first brush with a super A+ and i really started to wonder. since then dacj and i won a 3peat at MSU in rupp, with a 4th title in 5 years, and some more lofty draft classes, and at KU i had 2 titles and 2 final fours in 5 years and immediately after, this 5peat. so, i've gotten to see pretty many super A+ recruiting sessions, and have traded some battle notes. i guess i maybe shouldn't say this because someone will ***** about bragging or something, but that has nothing to do with it, this topic is extremely interesting to me and is one of the only questions that really drives me in this game today (if you could watch my type this you'd see that :) so, just stating facts - no bravado intended.
from that, i wish i could say more, i really do... but without question, its not capped at 100, and for a while, i wondered, well maybe regular prestige is capped at 100, and then you can add draft to that. no, that isn't it, either. you can definitely go higher. a while back i battled a regular a+ school and was winning at one point in the battle with almost 50% more effort in, by the other guy. so i'm pretty much positive you can get significantly above an A+. but how high?
well, here is my theory. baseline is like, whatever, 30% of your prestige, before draft picks. we know even like a B- baseline school will go from A- to A+ in a single season, with a title. for a title to be able to pull up that A- to an A+, with the B- dragging it down, we have to figure a title is at a bare minimum, somewhere around an A+++ on the prestige scale, maybe 4 or 5 plusses. lets go with 4, i don't think the last season is 50% of success, and if it was, you'd need an a+++ to average an a- to A+ even without baseline dragging you down. so i think 4 is probably really more like the minimum. maybe its even 6, who knows. so, if you won a title every year, eventually, your success based prestige would be pretty far up there. the last few seasons matter the most, so i don't think like, after a 3peat or 4peat, there's much room to run. at kansas i doubt winning 5 more in a row would help me all that much, its got to be about capped by now, after 5.
but anyway, if a title is say a high A++++, and you win a bunch in a row, lets say you are like a low A++++ now. then, your baseline is going to drag you down, if its like 30%, a mid A+ say 98.5 score averaged with a low A++++ which is like, 107, is 104.45, so thats like a medium-ish A+++. a great draft class is typically less than a partial grade, but more than a half, it might be like .8 partial grades - but an INSANE draft class even of just 4 people can be more than 1 full partial grade. so, lets say you have like the most insanely bad *** draft class ever, and pull a full 1.5 partial grades. in my theory, i think this would just straight get added on to your prestige, so you'd go up to like a high A++++ or even low A+++++. somewhere in that range, is my guess of the theoretical max. but, that is extremely unlikely, its got to be ultra rare.
for a more reasonable example, lets talk about someone with like, a great program, but not in the completely insane realm. say you are coaching A+ unc, and assume their baseline is like a 98. say you have had a good run, and your base success (not couting baseline or draft picks) is good for exactly a high A+, a 100, which who knows, might entail like a rd2 then a title then two s16s or something. say now you win another title, which is probably somewhere in the 110 range. if that last season is a third of your success, then you are looking at somewhere in the 103.5 range for prestige. the baseline would drag you down 101.9 if its 30%. then, you have a very good draft class, say like .75 of a partial grade, so add like 2.5, to get to about 104.4, which is like a mid A+++.
anyway, i am totally just rambling here, but i could roughly see it working something like that. so, a more normal awesome program, with like 2 titles in the last 5 years who then has like 4-5 solid draft picks, could be a mid A+++ or so in their top year there, after the title + draft pick year. but most likely, most of those seasons in there, they are not operating at that level. and most top schools don't operate with that kind of success, 2 titles in 5 years with 4-5 solid picks is a pretty fantastic case. i would bet that in most seasons, no program in a world is above an A++. but i do think the fantasy case is real, i would guess kansas is like A+++ before draft picks and like low A++++ before.
last comment, some people might take this as an a+ baseline program is a huge advantage. not sure its true. next year, my team is going to be garbage, say i lose in the 2nd round. now, instead of like 90% of my success seasons being championships (because the last 5 are titles), its like 60%, because the last season is a big chunk. with baseline dragging me down too, i probably will be down to an A++ without enough draft potential to get any higher. so, i do think you see fleeting examples of these super prestige cases but i think the stars sort of have to align, and as soon as you have 1 human season, it really takes things down a huge notch. maybe if i'm lucky kansas will be a+++ next year's recruiting, but i doubt it, i suspect we'll go from like a++++ to a++ in just the one season - even if i do well an make like, an elite 8.