Posted by rogelio on 9/13/2016 2:51:00 PM (view original):
Since he'll never show up on campus either way, the battle is D+ PENN STATE vs. A- REGIS. Regis has a fairly clear (and preferential) distance & man advantage. It's for the #36 OVR & #7 PF. He's overrated, but he's clearly Top 100 OVR.

Thanks rogelio. VH / H?

A couple of points:

• Some people are acting like D+ in D1 is an atrocious team. True in D2, absolutely not true in D1. In Rupp, if you sort by prestige, D+ teams go from #157 to #185. That's out of 324 teams. D+ is average, not abysmal. (The RL equivalent from last year would be something like 16-18 Nebraska.)
• An A- team in D2 is currently anywhere between #23 - 40. That's basically the 10th - 20th percentile. Very good, but not elite at D2.
• Given that, I'd say an average D1 team SHOULD win a battle over a very-good-but-not-elite D2 team about 95% of the time. (With the important caveat that I'm assuming number of slots and distance are equal - if those factors favor the D2 school, I might reduce the D1 chances to, say, 85 or 90%). It shouldn't be a 100% slam dunk - I could envision very specific scenarios where a recruit *might* pick the D2 school in that battle - but it should be the very exceptional case. Playing at an average D1 school is still a big deal compared to playing for a D2 school that isn't elite.

Also, for D2 coaches pining for a better chance to knock off a mediocre or worse D1 school, remember: if you raise the potential upside, you also raise the potential downside - excellent D3 schools beating YOU for recruits. As a D2 coach, I'm not digging that tradeoff at all.

Posted by kcsundevil on 9/13/2016 3:21:00 PM (view original):

Posted by rogelio on 9/13/2016 2:51:00 PM (view original):
Since he'll never show up on campus either way, the battle is D+ PENN STATE vs. A- REGIS. Regis has a fairly clear (and preferential) distance & man advantage. It's for the #36 OVR & #7 PF. He's overrated, but he's clearly Top 100 OVR.

Thanks rogelio. VH / H?

Still uncertainty. VH / moderate, but I had to overtake him. He may be stuck at his redlight. So, frighteningly enough, if the recruit doesn't sign during period #1, Regis could still move up when the "light" turns green....theoretically.

Please...I only mention this because it's purely academic...no one jump in this one. This may be the last meaningful battle in Beta.

Posted by rogelio on 9/13/2016 3:34:00 PM (view original):

Posted by kcsundevil on 9/13/2016 3:21:00 PM (view original):

Posted by rogelio on 9/13/2016 2:51:00 PM (view original):
Since he'll never show up on campus either way, the battle is D+ PENN STATE vs. A- REGIS. Regis has a fairly clear (and preferential) distance & man advantage. It's for the #36 OVR & #7 PF. He's overrated, but he's clearly Top 100 OVR.

Thanks rogelio. VH / H?

Still uncertainty. VH / moderate, but I had to overtake him. He may be stuck at his redlight. So, frighteningly enough, if the recruit doesn't sign during period #1, Regis could still move up when the "light" turns green....theoretically.

Please...I only mention this because it's purely academic...no one jump in this one. This may be the last meaningful battle in Beta.

I'm really curious to see the results. Hopefully both you and Spud can show us the amount of effort used and we can see what it looks like after the battle is over.

I thought of Spud's Redlight thing too when I saw he was moderate. He could really be High so in the 2nd period, even if he's High vs your VH, he still has a chance to sign. Maybe it's something like 80-20, or maybe it's 90-10, not sure we will really know unless Seble gives us the breakdown. I'm no math wiz, but if he has a 10% chance to sign this guy then I'm pretty sure that means it's not impossible as Spud stated.

I would almost say a simple proposal to the argument is to keep the divisions separate. D-2 can't recruit into the D-1 pool and vice versa. Give D-2 some decent quality caliber D-1 players, but only for adding additional players to the D-2 pool, not taking away from D-1. Seems like a simple solution to keep everyone happy.

Posted by thewizard17 on 9/13/2016 4:25:00 PM (view original):
I would almost say a simple proposal to the argument is to keep the divisions separate. D-2 can't recruit into the D-1 pool and vice versa. Give D-2 some decent quality caliber D-1 players, but only for adding additional players to the D-2 pool, not taking away from D-1. Seems like a simple solution to keep everyone happy.

I'm not sure I could go for this.Let DII take all the DI players they want, but if a DI team comes along in the 1st period (or frankly until the DII team signs the player) they effectively automatically win.

Overreach should be penalized, and it was silly if Spud thought with a D2 program that he could reach that high and not get challenged for the recruit, especially within a game dynamic where EVERY SCHOOL, D1 through D3, can see the contested player.

Order of action isn't even really an issue here. If Spud was the first coach on the guy, he should have known there was a strong likelihood that someone else would come along given the magnitude of the player involved. Heck, his usual line of advice to people with EE's is to quit whining and plan for backups. Well, guess what, the same advice applies here. Proceed to Plan B, immediately. If both players came in together or Spud thought he could somehow fight and overtake a human-coached program from a higher division, then that's not a system flaw, it's a strategy flaw by the user.

Someone tried to reach into the candy jar, got their fingers smacked. That's exactly how it should be. Don't blame the jar or the candy store owner for what was, on its face, a poor strategic decision.

There's a host of talent available in 3.0 that's not available to D2 programs in 2.0 if you know how to ID it and, most importantly, which fights you stand a chance of winning. Every player on my UMSL beta rosters has been a player I haven't had to battle for because I located high-potential players that were likely to escape notice, avoided ones that were battle magnets and was judicial in my decisions for when to move on when D1 programs moved in on players I was on early. That's two Final 4's and an Elite 8 without a single roll of the dice needing to happen. If beta goes one more season, I have a kid on roster right now that, depending on off-season improvement, could make a push for a 900 overall rating There's no "disadvantage" unless your definition of being disadvantaged means you cant get exactly the player you want when you want.

The top D2 programs five years into 3.0 will, barring any changes, dwarf the all-time best D2 programs this game has seen assembled since before my arrival on the scene in 2009. The magnitude leap at the D3 level will, I suspect, be even greater for those who figure out the nuances. I'm not making a good/bad call on that, only saying that it will happen barring a massive influx of humans to fight over recruits.

I want to call it "Spud's Red Light on the way to the D1 Candy Store" - just kidding with you Spud, but this needs to be the official name of the delay D2 and D3 teams have to face when going after D1 recruits. - LOL

can someone explain the difference between a D1 recruit dropping to D2 level because of lack of recruiting interest in 2.0, & a D2 team signing a D1 recruit in the 2nd round of recruiting in3.0?

“You can share the example now Spud. The Beta will close down before the recruit in question ever gets on campus.” You have no way of knowing that.

“Spud, what's your example?” You must have missed this: “I may share my example shortly.”

“Look at what? I really don't understand the issue?” Thank you Captain Obvious. But don’t feel bad, neither do most of the posters in this thread. They just go off on long tangents. Or post irrelevancies such as “They don't play each other!”

“I guess I haven't thought about how the game will be "new" at each level.” No worries, you’re not alone in posting first, thinking second.

“Since he'll never show up on campus either way …” You have no way of knowing that. I understood it was prohibited by WIS to post about an ongoing battle. I suppose from the moment I posted I accepted some risk that it would be posted by someone anyway. Here’s your one-digit salute…

“Hmmmmm would I rather play in the Big Ten or play at Regis Butthole State” You couldn’t make the academic requirements at either one. You would have to try to beg to be admitted to your local Butthole City College and you would fit right in, but your odds wouldn’t be good there, either.

“I'd say an average D1 team SHOULD win a battle over a very-good-but-not-elite D2 team about 95% of the time.” But not 100% of the time. Not automatically. Thank you for agreeing with me.

“I want to call it "Spud's Red Light on the way to the D1 Candy Store" - just kidding with you Spud, but this needs to be the official name of the delay D2 and D3 teams have to face when going after D1 recruits. – LOL” No prob, chapel, but place the blame where it belongs; it's Seble's red light. That red light is nothing but D1 welfare, an arbitrary artificial constraint on recruiting that does nothing to enhance the game.

Slow clap starting NOW.

Um...I know it because seble said the Beta would run through just one more season. The next season of Beta will never be. See? I do know.

And when we all see it we'll all know ... but not until then.

It's Beta. It's over. You got your money's worth.