Posted by hughesjr on 9/26/2016 11:20:00 AM (view original):
There is no difference between Div-1 Penn State at D+ prestige and Div-1 Cleveland State at D+ prestige. Whether a team is Big6 or any other Div-1, there should be no difference IMHO, so I am fine with that. It is very hard for a good baseline team to be D+ in HD .. that means Penn State in this case is in the dregs of Div-1 at D+ ... certainly in the dregs of a power conference.
So the real question is .. what is the prestige advantage of D+ Div-1 vs. A- Div-2. One might say that the prestige of those two teams should be similar if you look at it objectively. If you want a D prestige Div-1 team (and it would be any D-1 team, take the name of the jersey) to be significantly higher than an A prestige Div-2 team, then that is something to pursue/discuss.
Before you answer this question, remember that most A prestige Div-2 teams think they SHOULD be able to knock off a D prestige SIM team for recruits. Also remember that D+ Penn State is just like D+ Cleveland State as far as the game is concerned (and Baseline Prestige is used to make it difficult for Penn State to get that low, but if they do then they are like any mid major team at D+).
If you want to make an adjustment such that Div-2 guys can almost never compete to take away players from Div-I SIM teams, that is fine .. but understand that is what people seem to be asking for.
This is a good point. Or at least a lot of it is. A- D2 is not and should not be similar in prestige to D+ D1. If you want to make an argument for A+ D2 vs D- D1, I'll at least consider that, although I'd disagree (and, as an aside, if A+ D2 = D- D1, I'd say that A+ D3 probably equals C+ D2), but even if that's the case, there's still more than a one letter grade separation here.
In 2.0, a full letter grade of prestige advantage was generally considered to a multiplier of about 1.4 or 1.5. IIRC (I would love to check this number, but I'm having trouble navigating the beta forum archive, and I don't remember what thread it was posted in), seble said that if a battle is 60/40 regarding effort, one team would be very high and the other would be moderate. But a battle where both teams are throwing in the same effort and one has a 1.5 multiplier is a 60/40 battle.
In this case, I think the very best you can argue (on Regis' behalf) is that they should be more than a letter grade behind PSU in prestige, and thus facing a 1.5 multiplier. So if they put in more effort or have better preferences, I can see them sneaking in at the low end of high and having a <10% chance of signing the recruit. If they put in vastly more effort or have vastly more preferences (and in this case, it doesn't look like either one was the case), then I'd be fine with it being a legit close battle. But that is assuming D- D1 being considered equal to A+ D2 (i.e., no gap between divisions). And I don't think we should assume that. I would say that D- D1 should be at least a partial letter grade above A+ D2, and possibly up to a full letter grade. And if that were the case, PSU should basically have a 2x multiplier on everything compared to Regis. Which means Regis shouldn't even be in the picture unless they have a massive preference or effort advantage.
I don't think that (having A+ D2 be 1/3 to 1 letter grade below D- D1) is unreasonable, and I don't think it keeps D2s from ever competing with D1s. It just means they'd need a huge edge somewhere, and they could only do it against really low prestige D1 teams. That seems fair to me.